{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/administrative-services-managers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Administrative Services Managers", "soc_code": "11-3012", "category": "Management", "us_employment": 263960, "median_annual_wage": 114130 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 39, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 9, "embodiment": 9, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 8, "judgment_accountability": 11 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 9, roughly half your week — RFP scoring matrices, mail and records-retention schedules, supply reorder points, monthly occupancy and cost-per-square-foot reports, meeting and travel coordination — is template work AI already produces, while the other half (a vendor who missed SLA twice, a move-add-change for 40 desks, a fire-marshal walkthrough finding) still needs someone physically accountable, which is why this sits mid-band rather than at 5.", "embodiment": "9 reflects that you are in the building, not in it full-time: you walk punch lists, meet the elevator inspector, check that the badge reader on the loading dock works, and get the after-hours call when a sprinkler head goes — but you dispatch the tradespeople rather than crawl into the ceiling yourself, and the records-manager half of this SOC barely leaves a desk.", "liability_shield": "A 2 is honest: no state licenses administrative services managers, CFM and FMP are résumé assets nobody demands, and when a lease is signed or an OSHA citation lands it is the officer, the general counsel, or the licensed contractor whose name carries the exposure, not yours.", "trust_premium": "8 is earned inside the building — the facilities lead who knows which conference room's HVAC lies and which janitorial supervisor to call at 6am is genuinely hard to swap out — but the relationship is with a set of internal stakeholders and vendors who would keep working with your replacement next quarter, so it is not the product being bought.", "judgment_accountability": "11 covers the calls you actually make alone: whether to renew a janitorial contract or rebid, whether a flooded floor gets closed for the day, how to allocate space when two departments both grew — real discretion inside a budget and a policy manual you did not write, and escalating to the CFO once the number gets large." }, "rationale": "The paperwork half of this job — vendor bid comparisons, budget tracking spreadsheets, records-retention policies, procurement documentation, space-utilization reports — is exactly what current AI drafts at usable quality, and the layers of coordination work that justified headcount thin out when software handles scheduling and reporting. What holds is the facilities-and-people half: walking the building, handling a burst pipe or a failed HVAC unit, negotiating with contractors on site, and personally owning whether the office actually functions. The modal worker here splits between an office/records manager (more exposed) and a facilities manager (more protected by physical presence).", "outlook": "Headcount contracts over the next decade as reporting and procurement paperwork consolidates, with survivors concentrated in facilities, safety, and multi-site operations rather than office administration.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift is genuine here: if AI absorbs bid tabulation, budget rollups, space-utilization reporting and retention-schedule drafting, what remains is contractor dispute resolution, capital-project sequencing, and emergency response — the judgment tier. Watch for job postings that drop 'reporting/coordination' language and center 'vendor negotiation, capital planning, business continuity'.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Consolidation of the office-manager and facilities-manager variants into a single site-responsible role as records work automates — plus hybrid-era churn (office reconfiguration, sublease build-outs, sensor/BAS retrofits) that requires on-site walkthroughs and contractor supervision. If the surviving modal worker is the facilities manager rather than the records manager, this dimension rises mechanically.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Records-retention and legal-hold ownership becoming a named-custodian duty: FRCP 37(e) sanctions practice and SEC/FINRA books-and-records enforcement (e.g. the off-channel communications sweeps) already push firms to designate an accountable records officer. A court rule or regulator settlement requiring a named human custodian to attest to retention-policy execution and hold implementation would create a signature that cannot be AI-generated.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "On the facilities side, jurisdictions requiring a named responsible person for life-safety systems — NFPA-referenced 'building safety director' or fire-safety-director certificates already mandatory in NYC high-rises, and similar OSHA general-duty/emergency-action-plan accountability. Wider state adoption of a certified, personally accountable facility safety manager would attach liability to this SOC directly.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If the role absorbs vendor/contract authority and business-continuity ownership currently held above it — signing authority thresholds delegated as middle coordination layers are cut, plus insurer requirements (property carriers increasingly demanding documented water-mitigation and BCP programs with a named owner) — the role owns consequential calls under ambiguity rather than executing them.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no plausible route: buyers of administrative and facilities services do not pay a premium for a human manager, they pay for the building working. The whole occupation also sits under a headcount ceiling — even the protected facilities half tends to be one person per site or per portfolio, so protection per worker rising is compatible with fewer such workers." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2021, "emp": 224620, "wage": 100170 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 236570, "wage": 103330 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 242520, "wage": 106470 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 254140, "wage": 108390 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 263960, "wage": 114130 } ], "from": 2021, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 17.5, "comparable_from": 2021, "spans_soc_revision": false }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "general-and-operations-managers", "title": "General and Operations Managers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 52, "median_wage": 105770, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Monitoring", "Persuasion", "Active Learning", "Science" ] }, { "slug": "medical-and-health-services-managers", "title": "Medical and Health Services Managers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 55, "median_wage": 123860, "overlap": 71, "skills_to_close": [ "Science", "Systems Evaluation", "Instructing", "Persuasion" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }