{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/advertising-and-promotions-managers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Advertising and Promotions Managers", "soc_code": "11-2011", "category": "Management", "us_employment": 21470, "median_annual_wage": 133660 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 36, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 8, "embodiment": 3, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 13 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "An 8 reflects that concept generation, copy variants, media-mix modeling, audience segment builds, and weekly performance reporting — the bulk of hours logged — are now handled by generative tools and programmatic buying platforms, while agency negotiation, budget reallocation mid-flight, and internal stakeholder alignment still need a person in the room, which is why this sits above the 6 line rather than below it.", "embodiment": "A 3 acknowledges the occasional shoot supervision, trade show booth walkthrough, or press event, but the job is run from a laptop with campaign dashboards, spreadsheets, and video calls to agencies — nothing about the work fails if you never leave the desk.", "liability_shield": "A 1 rather than 0 because FTC truth-in-advertising rules, Lanham Act false-advertising exposure, and industry-specific claims review (pharma, financial services) do create real legal risk — but that risk lands on the company and its counsel, not on a credential you personally hold, since no license or registration gates the title.", "trust_premium": "An 11 sits mid-band because the standing relationships with media reps who hold back premium inventory, agency account leads, and the CMO who greenlights the annual plan do carry weight — but clients buy campaign results and CPA numbers, not you specifically, and the manager who replaces you inherits the same vendor contracts.", "judgment_accountability": "A 13 is earned by the calls that have no right answer in the data: pulling a live campaign during a brand-safety incident, shifting spend from a channel that looks good on last-click to one that doesn't, approving a positioning that could alienate an existing segment — you own the outcome to the P&L, but you own it inside a budget someone above you set." }, "rationale": "The production layer of this job — drafting campaign concepts, writing briefs and copy variants, building media plans, assembling performance decks, and A/B analysis — is exactly what generative and media-buying AI now does at usable quality and enormous volume. What holds is the accountability layer: owning a seven-figure budget, negotiating with agencies and media vendors, deciding brand positioning when the data is ambiguous, and standing in front of a CMO or client when a campaign flops. There is no license and no physical work, so the moat is purely relationship and P&L ownership, which means smaller teams of more senior managers rather than the same headcount doing less typing.", "outlook": "Headcount contracts as one manager plus AI tooling replaces a manager-plus-coordinator-plus-analyst pod; survivors are the ones holding budget authority and client relationships.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Pure task-mix shift, no law needed: once brief-writing, copy variants, media-plan drafts and performance decks are fully machine-produced, what remains billable as a manager's day is agency/vendor negotiation, budget reallocation under ambiguous attribution data, and crisis calls on creative that has offended someone. The job genuinely has two tiers; the residual tier is thin but hard. Watch for job postings that drop 'copywriting/deck-building' from the requirements and add 'P&L ownership' and 'agency roster management'.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Named-human-accountability rules for synthetic ad content: state synthetic-media disclosure laws for political and issue ads (California AB 2839/AB 2355, Texas SB 751, Michigan, Washington) plus EU AI Act Art. 50 transparency and the EU Political Advertising Regulation, which require a identified responsible sponsor/advertiser for AI-generated creative. If US platform or FTC guidance extends synthetic-disclosure attestation to commercial advertising, the marketing lead becomes the person who personally signs that a campaign's claims and imagery were substantiated.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Not a license, but a functional equivalent: FTC Section 5 substantiation enforcement naming individual marketing executives in consent orders (as it has done in ROSCA and endorsement-guide cases), or D&O/media-liability insurers requiring a named marketing officer to attest that AI-generated claims and testimonials were reviewed before binding coverage. This is a real underwriting trend in media E&O post-2023 generative-AI exclusions. It creates personal exposure without creating a credential, so the lift is capped.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Contractual human-authorship guarantees: SAG-AFTRA's 2023 commercials and interactive agreements and WGA-style AI clauses spreading into brand-agency master service agreements, where a client pays for and warrants human-conceived creative. Also visible in some consumer brands advertising 'no AI' credentials. This protects the creative supply chain more than the manager role, so expect only a small lift.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with all four levers, this tops out in the low-to-mid 50s. There is no licensure route, no embodiment, and no route to headcount protection: accountability moats concentrate work into fewer, more senior seats rather than preserving the 21,470. A rising score here can coexist with a shrinking occupation." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 28100, "wage": 106130 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 25260, "wage": 117130 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 25100, "wage": 125510 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 22490, "wage": 133460 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 22520, "wage": 127150 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 22010, "wage": 127830 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 20630, "wage": 131870 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 21100, "wage": 126960 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 21470, "wage": 133660 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -23.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "fundraising-managers", "title": "Fundraising Managers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 49, "median_wage": 125470, "overlap": 85, "skills_to_close": [ "Persuasion", "Management of Financial Resources" ] }, { "slug": "sales-managers", "title": "Sales Managers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 47, "median_wage": 148270, "overlap": 82, "skills_to_close": [ "Negotiation", "Instructing", "Management of Personnel Resources", "Operation and Control" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }