{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/agents-and-business-managers-of-artists-performers-and-athletes/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Performers, and Athletes",
    "soc_code": "13-1011",
    "category": "Business",
    "us_employment": 12620,
    "median_annual_wage": 82890
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 59,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 11,
    "embodiment": 7,
    "liability_shield": 9,
    "trust_premium": 17,
    "judgment_accountability": 15
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Roughly half your week — deal memos on standard AFTRA/SAG scale terms, tour routing spreadsheets, commission reconciliations, submission blasts to casting — is templated enough that software already does it, but negotiating a back-end point with a studio business affairs exec or convincing a label to fund a video keeps this at 11 rather than 5.",
    "embodiment": "You are on a phone and in email most of the day, but the job still drags you to showcases, tryouts, set visits, arena green rooms and airports on someone else's schedule — present but not the substance of the work, which is why this sits at 7 rather than 3.",
    "liability_shield": "California Labor Code 1700 talent agency licensing, New York employment-agency licensing, UAAA athlete-agent registration and SAG-AFTRA/WGA franchise agreements mean the state can pull your ability to solicit work and clients can void contracts — but there's no exam-gated professional credential, no personal malpractice exposure on a bad negotiation, and unlicensed managers work the same clients daily, so 9 not 15.",
    "trust_premium": "Clients follow the individual agent out the door when they change agencies — the roster is personally owned, built over years of taking 3am calls and knowing which family members to keep away from the money — and at 17 this is close to the ceiling for a job where the person, not the firm's brand, is what got signed.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether a 19-year-old signs the endorsement now or waits for the draft, whether to burn a relationship with a promoter over one bad settlement, and whether to tell a client their career window is closing — irreversible calls on someone else's livelihood with no procedure to fall back on, held just under the top band because you advise rather than execute the final signature."
  },
  "rationale": "The paperwork half of this job — drafting standard performance contracts, building tour and audition schedules, preparing royalty and appearance-fee summaries, writing pitch emails and press one-sheets, scanning casting notices — is already commodity AI work. What does not automate is the phone call where a promoter is talked off a ledge, the read on whether a client should take the lower-paying prestige role, and the fact that talent signs with a specific person they trust with their career and money. Talent-agency licensing (California, New York) and athlete-agent registration under the UAAA plus union franchising give a real but partial regulatory floor.",
  "outlook": "Rosters per agent grow as AI absorbs booking and contract admin, so headcount stays flat or thins while the deal-making, client-holding tier keeps its income.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State labor commissioners (California Talent Agencies Act, NY Article 11) or SAG-AFTRA/WGA franchise agreements explicitly extending fiduciary and licensing liability to AI-generated deal terms and requiring a licensed, named agent of record to sign every engagement contract and escrow client funds — plus NCAA/UAAA states adding a certified-agent signature requirement on NIL deal documents (already partly present in state NIL laws)",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Personal liability attaching to agents for AI-negotiated likeness/digital-replica clauses under the SAG-AFTRA 2023 consent provisions and state digital-replica statutes (Tennessee ELVIS Act, California AB 1836) — if boards treat improper AI-clause consent as an agent licensing violation",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: once contract drafting, scheduling and royalty summaries are fully commodity, the residual role is career-defining calls under ambiguity — prestige vs. pay, replica-consent, scandal response — where the agent is the accountable party to talent and unions",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Same two-tier shift raises the judgment share of the day; also rises if union-mandated AI-consent negotiation and cross-jurisdiction NIL/digital-replica compliance become non-templatable negotiation work",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Union franchising rules or client-side norms barring AI-only representation entities from being agents of record, keeping the named human as the person talent signs with",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium is already near ceiling at 17 — little headroom. Embodiment has no realistic route; presence at events is optional and not the billable core."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 15450,
        "wage": 64940
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 14830,
        "wage": 66040
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 17060,
        "wage": 73740
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 16240,
        "wage": 75420
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 12480,
        "wage": 78410
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 13130,
        "wage": 82530
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 12870,
        "wage": 84900
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 14220,
        "wage": 96310
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 12620,
        "wage": 82890
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -18.3,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}