{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/agricultural-technicians/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Agricultural Technicians", "soc_code": "19-4012", "category": "Science", "us_employment": 15130, "median_annual_wage": 49630 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 40, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 11, "embodiment": 14, "liability_shield": 3, "trust_premium": 5, "judgment_accountability": 7 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Hand-thinning a variety trial, tagging individual plants for phenotyping, and pulling soil cores on a grid still need a person walking the plot, but the yield-data transcription, plate-reader output cleanup, and standard-format trial reports are already machine work — that split is what puts it at 11 rather than 15.", "embodiment": "You are in mud, greenhouses at 95°F, and grain bins on the same week, hauling augers and sample bags across uneven ground and handling live plant material and pesticide-treated plots — uncontrolled outdoor work, though the lab bench and instrument room half of the job keeps it off the 18-plus ladder-and-livestock tier.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses agricultural technicians; a pesticide applicator card or a two-year ag degree may be listed as preferred, and even the GLP-relevant signature on a trial record belongs to the study director above you, so the 3 reflects credentials that help you get hired but shield nothing.", "trust_premium": "Your soil nitrate numbers and germination counts are read as data, not as your data — the seed company or extension scientist consuming them can swap technicians between seasons without any loss, and the 5 rather than 0 only covers the working familiarity with cooperating growers whose fields host the plots.", "judgment_accountability": "Trials come with a written protocol specifying plot layout, sampling depth, and replication, so your discretion is real but bounded — deciding a plot is compromised by flooding and flagging it, or calling an instrument out of calibration mid-run, are the calls you own, and the protocol deviation still goes upstairs for approval." }, "rationale": "The modal ag tech splits time between field plots/greenhouses/labs — laying out trial blocks, tagging plants, pulling soil cores, running tissue and seed assays, calibrating instruments — and a screen tier of data entry, spreadsheet cleanup, and routine report writing that AI plus sensor networks eats first. Sampling and instrument handling in muddy, variable field conditions still needs hands and legs, but no license protects the role and the scientist above signs off on the science. Drone imagery, in-line soil sensors, and automated plate readers shrink the headcount needed per acre of trial rather than eliminating the job.", "outlook": "The job persists but thins: sensors and automated scoring absorb the data-collection and reporting hours, leaving a smaller corps of technicians who plant trials, run and fix instruments, and ground-truth the machines.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: once sensor networks and LLM report drafting absorb the data-entry/spreadsheet/routine-report tier, the residual job is chain-of-custody sampling, anomaly triage on instrument drift, and salvaging trials when plots flood or a treatment fails — the genuine judgment tier. Watch for job postings that drop 'data entry' and add 'trial troubleshooting / QA' language.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Regulatory sampling protocols that require physical human-collected specimens with documented chain of custody — e.g. EPA FIFRA Good Laboratory Practice (40 CFR 160) residue trials and USDA AMS pesticide data program sampling, plus state seed-certification field inspections (AOSCA) — being extended to hemp/THC compliance and PFAS soil testing, where a drone or in-line sensor reading is not an admissible sample.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "GLP study-personnel requirements already name individuals responsible for raw data integrity; a formal certification requirement (e.g. state-mandated Certified Crop Adviser or a licensed 'sampling technician' credential tied to hemp THC compliance or PFAS/biosolids soil testing under state ag-department rules) that makes a named human sign the sample record and be personally sanctionable.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "If AI-generated agronomic prescriptions require a named human to accept or reject them before field application — analogous to insurer or seed-company contract terms requiring a signed technician deviation report when a trial protocol is broken — the role owns the consequential call rather than the scientist above.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "No realistic route to a trust premium: buyers of trial data want defensible numbers, not human-collected ones, and the customer relationship sits with the PI or the seed/chemical company. Liability gains are capped because the supervising scientist or study director remains the legal signer in GLP work." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2021, "emp": 13560, "wage": 40430 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 13140, "wage": 41760 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 13150, "wage": 43180 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 14340, "wage": 46790 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 15130, "wage": 49630 } ], "from": 2021, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 11.6, "comparable_from": 2021, "spans_soc_revision": false }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "agricultural-engineers", "title": "Agricultural Engineers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 52, "median_wage": 98590, "overlap": 71, "skills_to_close": [ "Technology Design", "Systems Evaluation", "Operations Analysis", "Systems Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "water-and-wastewater-treatment-plant-and-system-operators", "title": "Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "median_wage": 60020, "overlap": 68, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Operations Monitoring", "Equipment Maintenance", "Repairing" ] }, { "slug": "plant-and-system-operators-all-other", "title": "Plant and System Operators, All Other", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 57, "median_wage": 62470, "overlap": 67, "skills_to_close": [ "Quality Control Analysis", "Equipment Maintenance", "Operations Monitoring", "Operation and Control" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }