{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/air-traffic-controllers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Air Traffic Controllers", "soc_code": "53-2021", "category": "Transportation", "us_employment": 22510, "median_annual_wage": 148080 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 63, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 12, "embodiment": 9, "liability_shield": 17, "trust_premium": 8, "judgment_accountability": 17 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Metering arrival streams and reading standard clearances is bounded optimization that TBFM and DataComm already partially execute, but a 12 rather than a 6 reflects the shifts where a thunderstorm cell parks over the final, a Cessna goes NORDO, and you have to invent a plan for eight aircraft by voice in ninety seconds — work no current system sequences unaided.", "embodiment": "The job is a scope, a landline, and a headset, which alone would put it near 3, but a 9 recognizes tower controllers still work visually out the cab windows in weather, physically pass strips, and cannot be remote — plus the medical, sleep, and rotating-shift constraints that tie the function to a specific body in a specific facility.", "liability_shield": "A 17 tracks the FAA CTO certificate and facility rating you cannot work a position without, the Class II medical, the fact that separation losses are logged against your operating initials and investigated by the NTSB and FAA, and that no algorithm can hold the certificate — the reason it isn't 20 is that ATO is a federal employer and the government, not you personally, absorbs civil damages under the FTCA.", "trust_premium": "Pilots do not choose their controller and never learn your name, which caps this at 8; what earns those points is the working rapport inside the facility — the handoff coordination with the next sector, the D-side/R-side pairing, and the fact that pilots comply faster with a controller whose phraseology and timing they read as confident.", "judgment_accountability": "When two aircraft are converging and one crew reads back the wrong altitude, the call on who turns and how far is yours in the seconds you have, made under 7110.65 rules that tell you the minima but not the resolution — a 17 rather than 20 because those minima, LOAs, and standard emergency procedures do constrain the option set more than an ICU physician's." }, "rationale": "Sequencing arrivals, issuing routine clearances, and flight-strip/data handoffs are exactly the kind of constrained optimization automation handles well, and FAA decision-support tools (TBFM, DataComm, remote-tower video) already absorb pieces of the job. What resists is real-time deconfliction when weather, emergencies, equipment failures, and non-compliant pilots collide — a controller owns separation and the outcome, under FAA certification and a strong union. Modal worker is a certified professional controller at a tower or en route center, not a supervisor.", "outlook": "Headcount stays flat to slightly down as tools absorb routine sequencing and remote towers consolidate low-traffic facilities, but certified humans keep separation authority through the 2030s.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Codification in 14 CFR / FAA Order 7110.65 of an explicit rule that separation authority cannot be delegated to an automated system — i.e. any AI-generated clearance must be issued or affirmatively approved by a CPC holding a facility rating. NATCA has already pushed 'human-in-the-loop' language into remote/contract tower and TBFM deployment discussions, and ICAO Annex 11 amendments on automated ATS are in play.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Post-incident regime shift: if an NTSB report on a runway incursion or loss-of-separation event involving decision-support automation assigns the failure to over-reliance on the tool, and the FAA responds by formally naming the controller as the accountable authority for accepting/rejecting machine advisories (as happened after the 2023-25 incursion cluster and the Reagan National midair review), the role's ownership of the ambiguous call is tightened rather than diluted.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: if TBFM/DataComm/ATD-2 absorb routine sequencing, strip management and standard clearance issuance, the residual day becomes weather reroutes, emergency handling, equipment-outage degraded-mode operations and non-compliant aircraft — the tier automation handles worst. Watch for FAA staffing standards that redefine positions around 'exception handling' rather than traffic count.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "No realistic route upward; the work is already screen- and voice-mediated, and remote-tower video pushes it further off-site. Omitted as a lever except insofar as facility-presence requirements (FAA restrictions on remote operation of Class B towers) keep the controller physically at a specific console.", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 1 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no plausible route: passengers and airlines do not choose or pay for a specific human controller, and there is no market signal to attach a preference to. The whole defense here is statutory and institutional — FAA certification plus NATCA — not customer demand. That makes the score durable but brittle: a single FAA reauthorization cycle that authorizes automated separation in low-density airspace, or contract-tower expansion under remote-tower certification, moves liability_shield and task_resistance together and fast." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 22790, "wage": 124540 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 22390, "wage": 124540 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 22090, "wage": 122990 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 22190, "wage": 130420 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 21230, "wage": 129750 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 21250, "wage": 132250 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 22310, "wage": 137380 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 22400, "wage": 144580 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 22510, "wage": 148080 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -1.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "airline-pilots-copilots-and-flight-engineers", "title": "Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 75, "median_wage": 232140, "overlap": 69, "skills_to_close": [ "Operation and Control", "Operations Monitoring", "Troubleshooting", "Science" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }