{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/aircraft-mechanics-and-service-technicians/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians", "soc_code": "49-3011", "category": "Trades", "us_employment": 138090, "median_annual_wage": 79870 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 71, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 16, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 15, "trust_premium": 7, "judgment_accountability": 14 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Chasing an intermittent electrical fault through a wire bundle behind the cockpit sidewall, or deciding whether a corrosion pit in a stringer is within the SRM's blend-out limits, cannot be reduced to a scripted sequence — the 16 rather than 19 reflects that a real share of the shift is now digitised: AMOS/TRAX task cards, ECAM/OMS fault codes narrowing the diagnosis before you open a panel, and predictive engine trend monitoring flagging the unit before you'd have found it.", "embodiment": "A 19 is what you get when the job is done inside a wheel well, on a cherry picker at the vertical stabiliser, or lying in the belly with a torque wrench and a mirror — outdoor line stations in rain and freezing ramp wind, cowlings that weigh more than the manual says, and fasteners you have to feel to know are seated.", "liability_shield": "14 CFR 43.9 and 43.7 mean the return-to-service entry carries your certificate number, and the FAA can and does pull A&P tickets for improper approval — the 15 rather than 19 is because you sign under an operator's or repair station's Part 145 procedures and inspection authority, so IA holders and DERs absorb the heaviest calls above you.", "trust_premium": "Nobody boarding the aircraft knows your name, and airlines rotate you across tails and stations, so the 7 comes from the internal relationships that actually matter — the lead who knows whose torque you don't need to re-check, the pilot who calls you directly about a squawk he's seen twice, and the QA inspector who trusts your write-ups.", "judgment_accountability": "Deciding whether to defer a squawk to the MEL or ground a revenue aircraft with 140 passengers waiting is your call with the manual open and the captain standing there, and damage-tolerance judgments on borderline dents and delamination sit at 14 because the framework exists in the SRM but the interpretation is yours to defend later." }, "rationale": "The work is physically inseparable from the airframe: borescoping engines, torquing fasteners to spec, rigging control surfaces, replacing hydraulic lines and pulling panels in confined wing and tail sections. AI is already eating the paperwork layer — maintenance manual lookup, defect trend analysis, parts ordering, log entries — but an FAA-certificated A&P must personally sign the return-to-service, and that signature carries individual liability. Judgment on ambiguous squawks (intermittent faults, borderline corrosion, damage-tolerance calls) is where the value concentrates.", "outlook": "Headcount holds or grows with fleet size; AI-assisted diagnostics and digital records shrink the paperwork hours and raise the premium on certificated inspectors who can sign.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "FAA rulemaking or policy guidance (e.g., an update to 14 CFR 43.9/43.13 or an AC on digital maintenance records) that explicitly bars AI-generated or AI-assisted determinations from substituting for the certificated A&P/IA's judgment, and requires the signer to attest to independent verification of any machine-generated inspection finding — mirroring how EASA Part-145 requires named certifying staff. Would also extend to a named A&P countersignature on automated borescope/NDT image analysis.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Expansion of Inspection Authorization (IA) scope, or insurer requirements from aviation underwriters (e.g., Global Aerospace, AIG Aerospace) mandating a named IA sign-off on damage-tolerance and corrosion-level calls before coverage attaches — making the personal signature a condition of insurability, not just of airworthiness.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as the routine tier is automated: manual lookup, defect trend analysis, parts ordering and log entry drop out, leaving intermittent-fault troubleshooting, borderline corrosion assessment and non-standard repair design. This occupation genuinely has two tiers and the residual tier is the judgment tier.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "NTSB findings or an AD following an incident traced to over-reliance on automated diagnostics, prompting carrier maintenance-control procedures (and IBT/AMFA contract language on the right to refuse an AI-cleared aircraft) that formally place the ambiguous-squawk call with the named technician rather than the maintenance-control algorithm.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Limited route only: owner-flown GA and warbird/vintage segments where owners select a specific named A&P shop. This is a small share of the 138k and does not scale to airline or MRO work, where the buyer is a fleet operator indifferent to which certificated individual signs.", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 1 } ], "ceiling_note": "Already 71 with embodiment near-maxed; realistic headroom is in liability_shield and judgment_accountability, roughly low-80s. Trust premium is structurally capped because the paying customer is an airline or lessor, not a person choosing a mechanic. The real downside risk is not AI but design-for-no-maintenance and offshoring of heavy checks to foreign Part-145 stations, neither of which this register captures." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 131500, "wage": 61020 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 131690, "wage": 62920 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 133310, "wage": 64090 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 128300, "wage": 66440 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 125440, "wage": 65380 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 134070, "wage": 70010 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 137630, "wage": 75020 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 136390, "wage": 78680 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 138090, "wage": 79870 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 5, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }