{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/architectural-and-engineering-managers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Architectural and Engineering Managers",
    "soc_code": "11-9041",
    "category": "Management",
    "us_employment": 220260,
    "median_annual_wage": 171270
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 56,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 12,
    "embodiment": 7,
    "liability_shield": 9,
    "trust_premium": 12,
    "judgment_accountability": 16
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Earned-value roll-ups, spec comparison matrices, drawing-set completeness checks, and weekly status decks are already machine-drafted, but the same week includes design-basis arguments with a lead engineer, resource reallocation when a discipline slips, and standing in front of an owner explaining a change order — leaving it mixed rather than clearly resistant.",
    "embodiment": "Site walks, factory acceptance tests, punch-list reviews, and lab or plant floor visits are recurring but usually weekly-to-monthly obligations sandwiched between office days, and the manager observes rather than installs, torques, or commissions — so a physical component exists without the job living in the field.",
    "liability_shield": "A PE stamp or registered architect seal makes the individual personally answerable under state engineering practice acts, but a substantial share of these managers direct staff without holding or exercising licensure themselves, pushing the seal onto a subordinate engineer of record — the 9 reflects that split, not a uniform licensed duty.",
    "trust_premium": "Owners, agency reviewers, and executive sponsors keep calling the same manager because they know whose schedule estimates hold, but the deliverable is a building, a chip, or a plant — the client's contract survives a change of manager in a way a surgeon's or therapist's relationship does not.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Go/no-go on a design release, accepting residual risk on a life-safety system, deciding whether a failed test warrants requalification or a waiver, and choosing whom to lay off during a program cut are calls made with incomplete data where the manager's name is on the record afterward."
  },
  "rationale": "The modal engineering manager splits time between technical review, budget and schedule tracking, staffing decisions, client and executive briefings, and walking labs, plants, or job sites. AI already drafts the status reports, cost roll-ups, spec comparisons, and first-pass design reviews that consume much of the week, but it cannot own a go/no-go call on a $40M program, absorb the consequence of a failed design, or negotiate scope with an owner. A meaningful minority hold PE or architect licensure and personally stamp work, which hardens their position; those managing purely as administrators are the exposed tier.",
  "outlook": "Spans of control widen as AI absorbs reporting and coordination work, so fewer managers oversee larger teams — the licensed, client-facing, decision-owning managers keep their seats while pure coordinators get consolidated away.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State board enforcement or tightening of 'responsible charge' / direct supervisory control rules so that the manager who approves AI-assisted design output must personally hold the PE or RA seal — NCEES Model Law already defines responsible charge, and several boards (TX, FL) have opened rulemaking on AI-generated engineering documents. Repeal or narrowing of the industrial exemption (live in TX and OH debates) would pull in-house plant and manufacturing engineering managers into the sealed tier.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 6
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "A board or insurer rule that AI-generated calculations, drawings, or spec packages cannot be issued without an identified licensed human of record who attests to independent verification — analogous to professional liability carriers (e.g. Victor/AIA-endorsed policies) adding AI-use exclusions unless a named licensee reviewed the output. Turns review-and-sign into a non-delegable step.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Owner-side procurement language (state DOTs, DOE/NNSA, utility capital programs) naming a specific engineer-of-record and program manager as key personnel who cannot be substituted, with resumes scored — plus FAR/agency clauses requiring disclosure of AI use in deliverables. Buyers then pay explicitly for the named human's judgment, not the firm's tooling.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: the occupation genuinely has two tiers. If status reporting, cost roll-ups, spec comparison, and first-pass design review are fully absorbed by tooling, what remains is go/no-go on capital programs, scope renegotiation with owners, failure investigation, and staffing calls — the residual job is denser in exactly what models cannot own. The administrative-only tier shrinks rather than rising.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Site-presence requirements written into permits and safety regimes — e.g. OSHA or state requirements for a qualified/competent person physically on site for commissioning, confined-space, or energized work, and utility/nuclear regimes requiring a named responsible engineer walkdown before startup. Raises the floor only for the subset managing plants, construction, and labs.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "judgment_accountability at 16 is already near its practical ceiling; owning consequential calls is the core of the role and there is no institutional change that meaningfully adds to it. Note also that most of the liability_shield upside accrues only to the licensed minority — for administrator-track managers with no PE or RA, none of the shield levers apply and there is no visible route to one without licensure itself."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 179990,
        "wage": 137720
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 188290,
        "wage": 140760
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 194250,
        "wage": 144830
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 195900,
        "wage": 149530
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 187100,
        "wage": 152350
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 197180,
        "wage": 159920
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 207800,
        "wage": 165370
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 210340,
        "wage": 167740
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 220260,
        "wage": 171270
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 22.4,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}