{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/athletic-trainers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Athletic Trainers",
    "soc_code": "29-9091",
    "category": "Healthcare",
    "us_employment": 30500,
    "median_annual_wage": 62520
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 75,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 15,
    "embodiment": 18,
    "liability_shield": 13,
    "trust_premium": 15,
    "judgment_accountability": 14
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Ankle taping before every practice, manual muscle testing, on-field concussion screening with SCAT5 while a coach waits, and hands-on mobilization during rehab are the bulk of the day; the 5 points that come off reflect the genuinely automatable slice — documentation, coverage scheduling, injury-surveillance data entry, and template exercise prescriptions.",
    "embodiment": "You work on turf in August heat, on a wrestling mat, in a pool, and at the bottom of a pile after a collision — carrying a vacuum splint to an athlete in an unpredictable posture and controlling a cervical spine during a log-roll is uncontrolled-environment physical work, held just below 20 because a share of hours are spent in a fixed treatment room with modalities and charting.",
    "liability_shield": "BOC certification plus state licensure or registration in nearly every state, practice under a physician-directed athletic training plan, and personal exposure when a return-to-play decision precedes a second injury puts this solidly in licensed territory; it sits at 13 rather than 18 because the supervising physician's standing orders and the state athletic-training practice act bound your scope, so the ultimate medical liability is shared rather than yours alone.",
    "trust_premium": "An athlete who hides a hamstring twinge from the coach tells you, and that disclosure only happens because you rehabbed their last one and know their baseline gait — but the score stops at 15 because athletes rotate out every season and coverage is often assigned by team rather than chosen by the patient.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether a lineman with a normal SCAT5 but a vacant look goes back in, whether calf pain is DOMS or a DVT worth an ER referral, and whether a pitcher's shoulder can take one more inning — real ambiguity under a scoreboard clock, with the ceiling set by protocol-driven pieces like concussion return-to-learn steps and physician clearance requirements that constrain the final call."
  },
  "rationale": "The job is hands-on: taping and bracing, palpating a swollen knee on a sideline, running special tests, spine-boarding a downed athlete, and guiding rehab progressions with physical cueing — none of which a model or current robot performs. AI will absorb the paperwork tier (SOAP notes, injury surveillance reports, exercise program templates, insurance documentation) and can assist with return-to-play protocol lookup, but the return-to-play call itself is a liability-bearing judgment made under time pressure with an incomplete picture. Most states require licensure or registration plus BOC certification, and the athlete-trainer relationship — being the person who knows this specific body's history — is a real part of the product.",
  "outlook": "Employment keeps growing as coverage expands into secondary schools, industrial worksites and clinics; AI eats the documentation load, which mostly gives trainers back time on the field.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State legislatures adopting concussion/return-to-play statutes that name the licensed athletic trainer (not just a physician) as an authorized clearance signer with personal accountability — several state 'Lystedt law' amendments and NATA-backed practice-act updates already move this way; plus state boards adding rules that AI-generated rehab progressions or RTP recommendations require a licensed AT's countersignature in the medical record",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Mandated AT staffing ratios for secondary-school athletics (bills filed in several states after cardiac-arrest and heat-stroke deaths), converting the role from discretionary hire to legally required presence at practices and games",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Emergency Action Plan rules and NCAA/state-association policy giving the on-site AT unchallengeable authority over removal-from-play — 'unchallengeable medical authority' language already in NCAA and some state athletic-association bylaws — so the ambiguous sideline call is formally owned by the AT rather than a coach or physician by phone",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "As documentation, injury-surveillance reporting and template program-writing get absorbed by AI scribes, the residual day concentrates into palpation, manual therapy, emergency response and clearance judgment — the two tiers here are genuinely separable and the routine tier is the one being automated",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Collective bargaining and league policy specifying named, human athletic-training staff (NFLPA/NBA player-health provisions, D-I athlete demands for consistent staff) plus parent expectation of an on-site person at youth sport — buyers paying specifically for a human who knows this body's history",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Already near the practical ceiling; embodiment at 18 and task_resistance at 15 leave little headroom, and the biggest realistic gains are institutional (statutory clearance authority, mandated staffing) rather than capability-based. Counter-pressure: budget-driven substitution of ATs by lower-cost aides plus tele-supervision would erode the trust premium even as the legal shield strengthens."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 25010,
        "wage": 46630
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 26890,
        "wage": 47510
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 28600,
        "wage": 48440
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 27430,
        "wage": 49860
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 26070,
        "wage": 48420
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 29720,
        "wage": 53840
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 28480,
        "wage": 57930
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 28950,
        "wage": 60250
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 30500,
        "wage": 62520
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 22,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}