{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/automotive-service-technicians-and-mechanics/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics",
    "soc_code": "49-3023",
    "category": "Trades",
    "us_employment": 704640,
    "median_annual_wage": 50620
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 67,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": true,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 5,
    "trust_premium": 12,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "A P0301 code tells you a cylinder-1 misfire and nothing more — the work is swapping coils, doing a compression test, backprobing an injector connector, and none of that gets done by software that can only read the code; 17 rather than 20 because scan-tool guided diagnostics, OEM procedure lookup, and estimate writing are already being taken off your plate.",
    "embodiment": "Broken exhaust studs, rusted subframe bolts, transmissions on a jack, brake dust, and reaching one arm past an intake manifold to feel for a wrench you can't see — every fastener is in a different place on every vehicle and half of them are corroded, which is the ceiling case for physical work.",
    "liability_shield": "ASE certification is what shops advertise and what pays better, but no state requires a licence to turn wrenches; the shop carries the garage-keepers liability and the comeback, and only emissions/safety-inspection work ties a specific certified individual's number to a signature.",
    "trust_premium": "Independent-shop customers come back to the tech who remembers their car and will tell them the water pump can wait another 6,000 miles, which is real repeat business — but dealership flat-rate work assigns you whatever comes in on the rack and warranty and fleet work is routed by contract, not by who the customer asks for.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether that noise is a wheel bearing or a CV joint before anyone pays for parts, and whether a vehicle leaves the bay with brake lines you thought were marginal; capped at 13 because OEM service procedures, torque specs, and repair-vs-replace guidelines define the answer once you've identified the fault."
  },
  "rationale": "The job is hands inside a hot, dirty, geometrically awkward engine bay: pulling suspension components, chasing an intermittent electrical fault through a wiring harness, replacing timing chains. AI already reads diagnostic trouble codes, suggests probable causes from service bulletins, and writes the repair order narrative — but no robot removes a seized exhaust bolt on a 12-year-old Silverado. The real medium-term pressure is EV drivetrains needing far fewer scheduled repairs, not language models.",
  "outlook": "Demand holds through the decade as the vehicle fleet ages, but growth flattens and the work shifts toward electrical, software, and EV high-voltage diagnostics while routine oil-and-brakes volume erodes.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State-level ADAS/safety-system recalibration mandates: several states (and NHTSA rulemaking petitions) are moving toward requiring a certified technician to sign off on post-collision calibration of cameras/radar and on EV high-voltage battery pack service. If a named, certified individual must sign the calibration record and carries personal exposure when a lane-keep system fails, this rises materially. I-CAR and OEM certification programs plus insurer repair-network requirements are already the visible motion here.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 6
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State safety-inspection regimes (PA, NY, TX, VA) extending from mechanical inspection to mandatory periodic inspection of EV battery state-of-health and ADAS sensor alignment, with the inspecting technician's license number on the certificate and license revocation for false certification.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Right-to-repair implementation (Massachusetts Data Access Law, Maine's 2023 referendum, the federal REPAIR Act) putting full telematics and diagnostic authority in independent shops — the tech, not the OEM's remote system, owns the go/no-go call on whether a vehicle is roadworthy after high-voltage or structural work.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift as code-reading and repair-order drafting are absorbed: the residual job concentrates on intermittent faults, corrosion, prior bad repairs, and high-voltage EV pack diagnosis where the failure is not represented in any DTC. Genuine two-tier occupation — the routine brake-and-oil tier is already leaking to quick-lube channels.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Growth of OEM-certified EV/high-voltage repair networks where insurers or manufacturers will only warrant work done by a named certified technician, making the individual's credential the thing purchased rather than the shop's rate.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already maxed and cannot rise. The dominant medium-term risk to this occupation is volume — EV drivetrains needing fewer scheduled repairs — and no liability or trust lever offsets a shrinking work pool; a higher score here would describe a safer job at fewer headcount."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      67,
      69
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "SAFE",
      "SAFE"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 639700,
        "wage": 39550
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 648050,
        "wage": 40710
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 655330,
        "wage": 42090
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 620110,
        "wage": 44050
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 629780,
        "wage": 46880
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 664070,
        "wage": 46970
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 676570,
        "wage": 47770
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 688840,
        "wage": 49670
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 704640,
        "wage": 50620
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 10.2,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}