{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/bailiffs/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Bailiffs",
    "soc_code": "33-3011",
    "category": "Protective Service",
    "us_employment": 17310,
    "median_annual_wage": 56600
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 67,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": true,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 16,
    "embodiment": 18,
    "liability_shield": 12,
    "trust_premium": 10,
    "judgment_accountability": 11
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Moving a shackled defendant from holding to the well, clearing a gallery when a family member starts shouting, and physically sequestering a jury during deliberations are irreducibly manual; only the docket logs, incident write-ups, and calendar coordination compress, which is why this sits at 16 rather than 19 — a real slice of the shift is paperwork.",
    "embodiment": "The work happens in an unpredictable public room — hostile litigants, contraband at the magnetometer, prisoner transport hallways, and process service at private residences where the bailiff does not control who opens the door — leaving essentially no portion of the job performable from a screen.",
    "liability_shield": "Most bailiffs are sworn deputies or court officers with POST/state peace-officer certification and statutory arrest authority, so use-of-force decisions attach to them personally under §1983, but the sheriff or presiding judge holds the ultimate command responsibility for courtroom security, which caps this below the 16+ range of independently licensed practitioners.",
    "trust_premium": "Judges, clerks, and prosecutors come to rely on a specific bailiff who knows which defendants are volatile and how a given judge wants the room run, but the public never chooses their bailiff and the badge is interchangeable to them — the relationship is an efficiency, not the service being purchased.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Deciding when a raised voice becomes contempt-worthy, when to interpose between parties, and how much force a fleeing defendant justifies are split-second calls the bailiff owns, though standing orders, court security manuals, and the judge's direct instruction from the bench structure most of the day."
  },
  "rationale": "A bailiff's day is physical courtroom presence: screening entrants, escorting in-custody defendants, restraining outbursts, guarding juries, and serving papers — none of which a language model can do. The automatable slice is thin and administrative: logging case activity, preparing docket paperwork, drafting incident reports, and scheduling. Sworn peace-officer status and statutory arrest/custody authority mean a human must physically be the one holding the courtroom.",
  "outlook": "Headcount stays roughly flat and tied to court dockets; expect clerical reporting duties to shrink into automated systems while the sworn, physical security role remains fully human.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State POST (Peace Officer Standards and Training) certification being made a hard statutory prerequisite for anyone performing in-custody transport or courtroom custody — several states (e.g. California's Trial Court Security Act allocations, Texas Occupations Code Ch.1701) already tie court security funding to sworn, certified deputies; extending that to bar contract/unsworn security from custody duties, with personal liability under Section 1983 for custody decisions, would deepen the shield",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Written court-security standards (NCSC/state judicial council rules) that assign a named bailiff personal responsibility for threat-assessment calls on courtroom entrants and for jury sequestration integrity — post-incident reviews after courthouse attacks have pushed some judicial councils toward naming an accountable officer per courtroom rather than a shift roster",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: if e-filing, automated docket logging, and AI-drafted incident reports remove the administrative tier, the residual role is almost entirely unscripted physical judgment — restraint decisions, de-escalation of family-court outbursts, prisoner-defendant separation — which raises the share of the day that is non-automatable",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Expansion of duty scope into hybrid/remote-hearing escort and off-site custody transport as courts decentralize, plus service of process on evasive respondents, adds more unpredictable-environment work per FTE",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 1
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: the buyer is a county government purchasing statutory coverage at a set wage, not a client choosing a human. The real risk to this occupation is headcount consolidation — courtroom-consolidation, remote arraignment, and centralized camera-based screening reduce the number of posts needed — not task automation. Score stability does not imply job-count stability."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      67,
      68
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "SAFE",
      "SAFE"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 18480,
        "wage": 42960
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 18900,
        "wage": 45760
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 19650,
        "wage": 47830
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 18120,
        "wage": 48000
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 16420,
        "wage": 48320
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 16470,
        "wage": 49100
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 15900,
        "wage": 53040
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 16910,
        "wage": 57050
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 17310,
        "wage": 56600
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -6.3,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}