{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/boilermakers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Boilermakers", "soc_code": "47-2011", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 10190, "median_annual_wage": 76410 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "contested": false, "near_boundary": true, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 18, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 10, "trust_premium": 7, "judgment_accountability": 12 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Rolling and bending shell plate, aligning drums with jacks and wedges, back-gouging a root pass overhead inside a mud drum, and replacing tubes through a 16-inch manhole are tasks that require a body in the vessel rather than a shop-floor gantry, so only the takeoff, weld-map, and NDE paperwork sit within reach of software — that's why this is 18 and not a mixed 12.", "embodiment": "You work inside the vessel: confined-space entry permits, 120°F stack temperatures during a boiler outage, scaffolds and stagings you build yourself, torch and stinger in hand, in geometry that changes at every plant — this is the ceiling case for uncontrolled physical environments, not merely a field job.", "liability_shield": "You hold real credentials — ASME Section IX procedure qualifications, an R-stamp or NB shop's welder continuity records, sometimes state boiler-repair endorsements — and a failed radiograph is traced to your stencil, but the Authorized Inspector signs the R-1 form and the certificate holder carries the code liability, which puts this at 10 rather than up with a PE or licensed operating engineer.", "trust_premium": "Contractors and plant maintenance managers request specific hands by name for turnaround crews and boilermakers get called back to the same units year after year, but you're dispatched out of a Local hall on manpower calls and the client is buying qualified stencils and headcount, not you personally — hence 7.", "judgment_accountability": "Deciding whether wall thinning warrants a pad weld or a full tube section, calling a rigging plan for a 40-ton drum through a boiler house door, and judging fit-up and preheat when the drawing doesn't match the as-built vessel are all discretionary calls — but WPSs, lift plans, and the Authorized Inspector's hold points bound them, so 12 rather than a 16 where you'd own the ambiguity alone." }, "rationale": "Boilermakers assemble, weld, and repair pressure vessels, boilers, and tanks inside confined, hot, awkward spaces at refineries, power plants, and shipyards — work no current robot can do at cost. AI touches only the thin paper layer: reading blueprints, weld procedure documentation, and inspection reports. The real constraints are ASME code welding qualifications, rigging skill, and diagnosing corrosion and leaks by hand and eye during tight turnaround windows.", "outlook": "Employment stays small and cyclical with power-plant and refinery outage cycles, but the hands-on pressure-vessel work is essentially untouched by AI through 2035, and retirements keep qualified welders scarce.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State/jurisdictional boiler codes tie liability to the vessel's ASME Code stamp and the National Board R-stamp holder, not to the individual welder. If NBIC or state boiler-safety boards (e.g. the Nat'l Board's push for traceable weld records) added a rule that the named welder-of-record must personally sign each pressure-retaining weld log and remain identified for the life of the repair — the way NDE Level II/III technicians already sign radiographs — the shield would become personal rather than corporate.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Extension of ASME Section IX welder performance qualification requirements to explicitly cover machine/automatic welding operators with the same continuity-of-qualification and re-test burden as manual welders, so an automated orbital or robotic weld on a pressure boundary still needs a named qualified human accepting it. Already partially in motion via Section IX machine-welding variables and API 577 practice.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Turnaround fitness-for-service calls (weld out vs. replace a corroded section, accept a leaking tube plug) currently sit with the API 510/570 inspector or plant engineer. If insurers underwriting boiler-and-machinery coverage (FM Global, Travellers Equipment Breakdown) began requiring a documented sign-off from the lead craft on discovered-condition scope changes as a condition of coverage, the boilermaker's judgment becomes a recorded, consequential call rather than an informal recommendation.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Two-tier shift: if fabrication-shop panel and tube-bank work continues migrating to automated shop welding cells, the field remainder concentrates in confined-space repair, distortion control, and discovered-corrosion diagnosis — the tier no automation touches. This raises measured resistance of the surviving job without any regulatory change, while shrinking headcount.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Nuclear Section III / NRC 10 CFR 50 Appendix B work and Navy shipyard SUBSAFE specs where owners write manual-process requirements and named-welder traceability into the contract. This is a narrow segment premium for a specific qualified human, not a general buyer preference, and it does not extend to refinery or industrial boiler work.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already maxed at 20 and cannot rise. The realistic ceiling here is roughly the mid-70s: the binding risk for boilermakers is not AI substitution but demand contraction — coal plant retirements, refinery closures, and shop-prefabrication moving field hours into factories. A higher score on this register would not protect against that." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict", "outcome": "corroborated", "run_totals": [ 67, 69 ], "run_verdicts": [ "SAFE", "SAFE" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 15020, "wage": 62260 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 13870, "wage": 62150 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 15820, "wage": 63100 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 14020, "wage": 65360 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 12920, "wage": 64290 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 13570, "wage": 66920 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 11130, "wage": 71140 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 10170, "wage": 73340 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 10190, "wage": 76410 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -32.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }