{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/brickmasons-and-blockmasons/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Brickmasons and Blockmasons",
    "soc_code": "47-2021",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 52550,
    "median_annual_wage": 62120
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 68,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 18,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 6,
    "trust_premium": 11,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Striking a joint to the right profile before the mortar sets, adjusting the mud's consistency by feel as the temperature and unit suction change, and toothing into an existing 80-year-old wall whose courses don't match modern brick dimensions are judgment-in-the-hands tasks with no digital intermediary — hence 18 rather than a perfect 20, since the estimating, layout math, and coursing calculations at the front end of a job are genuinely software-shaped work.",
    "embodiment": "You work off swing stage or tubular scaffold in heat and cold, lift 30-plus-pound CMU thousands of times a shift, run a wet saw, and lay to a line strung across an uneven footing that nobody surveyed — there is no controlled cell, no fixed workpiece position, and no version of this job that happens indoors at a desk.",
    "liability_shield": "There is no state bricklaying licence and no personal exposure on your signature: the general contractor's structural engineer stamps the wall design, the special inspector pulls the prism tests under IBC Chapter 17, and your journeyman card or NCCER credential proves training but confers no legal monopoly on the work — the 6 reflects apprenticeship-based credentialing and OSHA scaffold competency requirements, not licensure.",
    "trust_premium": "Repeat work comes from GCs and masonry contractors who know your crew hits schedule and passes inspection, and restoration and architectural-brick homeowners specifically ask for the mason who matched their mortar color last time — but on a bid-let commercial job the low number wins regardless of who you are, which caps this at 11 rather than putting it in the relationship-is-the-product band.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide on the spot whether a footing is out enough to require re-layout, how to bond an unplanned opening, whether yesterday's lift got frozen and has to come down, and which mortar type to point historic soft brick with so you don't spall the face — real calls with cost and durability consequences, though drawings, coursing details, and a foreman's direction bound them, which is why this sits at 13 and not higher."
  },
  "rationale": "Laying brick and CMU to line and level on scaffolding, mixing and buttering mortar, cutting units to fit, and tuckpointing deteriorated joints are physical tasks in weather-exposed, never-identical site conditions — the hardest thing for robotics, not language models. Bricklaying robots (SAM, Hadrian) exist but handle only long straight runs on prepared sites and still need masons for setup, corners, openings, and cleanup. The exposure is on the paperwork edge: takeoffs, material estimates, and bid documents, plus modest wage pressure if semi-automated laying reaches mid-size commercial jobs.",
  "outlook": "Employment stays roughly flat with steady restoration and repair demand; laying robots take a slice of long straight commercial walls, but corners, custom work, and repair keep skilled masons in short supply.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Adoption of structural masonry special-inspection requirements (IBC Chapter 17 / TMS 402 Level B-C inspection) into more state and municipal codes, plus state-level licensing of masonry contractors (e.g. the way NC, CA, LA license masonry as a specialty trade) so a named certified mason foreman signs off on prism tests, grout lifts, and reinforcement placement with personal exposure. Also credentialed restoration masons required on Secretary of the Interior Standards tax-credit historic jobs.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Continued growth of historic-preservation and high-end architectural masonry where buyers pay explicitly for hand-laid, hand-tooled work — expansion of preservation trades certification (e.g. Preservation Maryland/PTN programs, IMI's craft certification) and specification language naming certified restoration masons on landmark and tax-credit projects.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If semi-automated laying takes the long straight runs, the remaining human scope concentrates in corners, openings, arches, lintel bearing, movement-joint placement, and diagnosing existing-wall failure before repointing — calls where a wrong read causes water intrusion or collapse. Mortar-compatibility judgment on soft historic brick is already a consequential, unautomatable call.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift as takeoffs, estimating, and bid paperwork are absorbed by software, leaving the day almost entirely site-condition craft work; already near ceiling so headroom is small.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 1
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "embodiment is maxed and task_resistance is near maxed; realistic upside is a few points from licensing/inspection and preservation demand. The genuine risk here is not displacement but wage compression on high-volume commercial runs, which the register does not score."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 64790,
        "wage": 49770
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 63930,
        "wage": 50950
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 60650,
        "wage": 53100
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 59940,
        "wage": 55080
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 55950,
        "wage": 59340
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 55530,
        "wage": 59000
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 56830,
        "wage": 59640
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 53520,
        "wage": 60800
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 52550,
        "wage": 62120
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -18.9,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}