{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/bus-drivers-school/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Bus Drivers, School",
    "soc_code": "53-3051",
    "category": "Transportation",
    "us_employment": 402930,
    "median_annual_wage": 47920
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 71,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 15,
    "embodiment": 19,
    "liability_shield": 14,
    "trust_premium": 13,
    "judgment_accountability": 10
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Route sheets and dispatch logs are already digitized, but the daily core — sweeping the bus at end of route for a sleeping kindergartener, activating the crossing arm and physically escorting a child across a live traffic lane, stopping and opening the door at every rail crossing, securing wheelchair tiedowns — is a sequence of physical judgment calls no vendor is piloting without a driver, which is why this sits at 15 rather than into the high teens: the navigation itself is the one part that is being automated.",
    "embodiment": "You are in the vehicle in whatever weather the district doesn't call a snow day for, doing pre-trip inspections on brakes, mirrors, and emergency exits in a cold yard at 5:30am, backing a 40-footer in a cul-de-sac, and walking the aisle to break up a fight — 19 because the entire shift is uncontrolled outdoor and in-vehicle physical work, short of the top only because you are seated for most of it.",
    "liability_shield": "A CDL with the S (school bus) and P (passenger) endorsements, DOT medical card, state fingerprint and background clearance, and an FMCSA-regulated drug and alcohol program mean a positive test or a preventable crash ends your ability to hold the job anywhere — 14 rather than 18 because the district and its insurer absorb the civil damages, and your exposure is licence-level and administrative rather than personal malpractice liability.",
    "trust_premium": "Parents at the stop know your name, the district hears about it when a regular driver is swapped for a sub, and special-needs routes are deliberately assigned to the same driver because the child's routine depends on the same face and the driver knows which student can't handle a changed seat — 13 puts it just over the line where the relationship is the service, held there because the route runs whether or not you're the one driving it.",
    "judgment_accountability": "The written framework is heavy — stop-arm procedure, railroad crossings, evacuation drills, discipline referral forms, when to radio dispatch rather than decide — but you personally call whether an unfamiliar adult at the stop gets the child, whether a hill is too icy to attempt, and whether a diabetic or seizure incident means pulling over and calling 911 or continuing to the school nurse, which is real unscripted authority and lands it at 10."
  },
  "rationale": "The job is operating a 40-foot vehicle full of unsupervised children through residential streets, railroad crossings, snow, and double-parked cars — plus managing behavior, verifying students board and exit safely, and handling medical or behavioral incidents in transit. Autonomous driving is nowhere near unsupervised child transport, and even a fully self-driving bus would still need an adult aboard for supervision and liability, which is the expensive part. Route optimization and dispatch paperwork are already software; the seat behind the wheel is not.",
  "outlook": "Through 2035 the seat stays occupied by a human; the real pressures are district budgets, route consolidation, and chronic pay-driven shortages rather than automation.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Explicit state statutes barring driverless operation of school buses and requiring a CDL-holding, S-and-P-endorsed adult in the driver's seat regardless of automation level — the pattern in existing state AV bills that carve school buses out of driverless authorization (e.g., bills in NY, Georgia and Texas that exempt or prohibit school-pupil transport from AV pilots), plus NHTSA FMVSS 222/school bus rules being amended to name a responsible operator. Watch also for state pupil-transportation regs making the driver the mandated reporter and the person who signs the pre-trip inspection log with personal liability.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "School board policy or district RFP language requiring a human driver plus, for routes with pre-K, special-needs, or IEP-transport students, a second credentialed adult aide — already contractual in many districts under IDEA-related transportation plans. If parent groups convert AV pilots into explicit board resolutions banning unmanned pupil transport, the human-in-seat requirement becomes a purchased good, not just a technical default.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Formalization of the driver's non-driving duties into named, auditable responsibility: state rules making the driver the accountable party for student-count reconciliation at each stop (post-'child left on bus' fatality statutes, several states now mandate end-of-route sweep and electronic child-check systems with driver sign-off), for railroad-crossing and evacuation decisions, and as a Title IX / mandated child-abuse reporter for on-bus incidents. If districts add crisis-response and de-escalation certification requirements after behavioral incidents, the ambiguity-under-consequence portion of the role is documented rather than invisible.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift only weakly applies: routing, dispatch, and attendance logging are already software, so what remains is the driving-plus-supervision tier. If automation handles the highway/arterial portion of routes but the driver retains stop-side loading, wheelchair securement, and behavior management, the residual job is entirely the tier machines cannot do — but this raises the score only marginally because the seat is already the job.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 1
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "The binding constraint is district budgets, not capability: driver shortages have already pushed districts to consolidate routes, shorten service areas, and shift to parent-transport stipends or contracted rideshare-style vans for small loads. Headcount can fall sharply while every dimension score stays high — the role is displacement-resistant but not headcount-resistant."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 361420,
        "wage": 37910
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 366550,
        "wage": 41270
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 371530,
        "wage": 45660
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 387920,
        "wage": 47040
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 402930,
        "wage": 47920
      }
    ],
    "from": 2021,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 11.5,
    "comparable_from": 2021,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}