{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/captains-mates-and-pilots-of-water-vessels/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels", "soc_code": "53-5021", "category": "Transportation", "us_employment": 36850, "median_annual_wage": 92460 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 74, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 15, "embodiment": 17, "liability_shield": 17, "trust_premium": 8, "judgment_accountability": 17 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Docking a loaded tug-and-barge unit in a 3-knot cross-current, judging a crossing situation under COLREGS Rule 15 against a fishing fleet that isn't broadcasting AIS, and ordering a crew to secure lines in a swell are not scripted procedures — the 15 rather than 18 reflects that ECDIS voyage planning, ballast calculations, and noon reports have already left your hands.", "embodiment": "You work on a moving platform in weather you don't control — climbing to the bridge wing to eyeball clearance, boarding a moving ship off a pilot ladder in a swell, walking the deck in ice — and the 17 rather than 20 only accounts for the hours you spend seated at a chart table or console.", "liability_shield": "A USCG Master, Mate, or Pilot endorsement under 46 CFR Part 11 is a personal credential: after a grounding or allision it's your license at the suspension-and-revocation hearing, your name on the 2692, and potential criminal exposure under the Refuse Act or Seaman's Manslaughter statute — held below 20 only because pilotage associations and vessel owners absorb much of the civil damage claim.", "trust_premium": "Charterers and shippers book tonnage and schedules, not you by name; the 8 comes from the repeat relationships that do matter — a state pilot known to local port captains, a harbor tug master a docking pilot asks for, a crew that will sail with you again.", "judgment_accountability": "When the fog closes in, you decide alone whether to anchor or proceed, whether to accept the tow, whether the cargo is safely stowed for the forecast sea state — Master's Overriding Authority under the ISM Code exists precisely because no shore office can be given that call, and the 17 rather than 20 reflects standing orders, company SMS procedures, and compulsory pilotage that narrow the field." }, "rationale": "The core of this job is conning a vessel through traffic, weather, currents, and narrow channels while commanding a crew — physical, situational work that autonomous shipping trials have not come close to replacing at scale. A USCG license (master, mate, or pilot endorsement) is legally required and the master carries personal liability for the vessel, cargo, and lives aboard. Log-keeping, voyage planning, cargo paperwork, and route optimization are already being automated, which trims the desk half of the job but not the bridge half.", "outlook": "Autonomous and remotely supervised vessels will absorb open-water transit legs and paperwork over the next decade, but licensed humans will still hold the con for docking, pilotage, and emergencies — expect fewer crew per hull and more value concentrated in the master and pilot tiers.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "IMO's MASS Code (non-mandatory code targeted for 2026, mandatory instrument aimed at 2030s) landing with an explicit 'master' role requirement — i.e. a licensed human master remains legally designated for any degree of autonomy, including remote operation centers, plus USCG implementing regs and P&I club/H&M underwriters conditioning cover on a licensed master of record. Also state pilotage compulsory-pilotage statutes (e.g. Panama Canal, Columbia River Bar, NY/NJ Sandy Hook) being reaffirmed rather than waived for autonomous transits.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Post-casualty rulemaking — in the pattern of the Dali/Key Bridge NTSB inquiry — that formalizes the master's override authority over automated conning and collision-avoidance systems, making the human the named decision authority under COLREGs Rule 2 'ordinary practice of seamen'. Raises the accountability score to the ceiling.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: this job genuinely has two tiers. Once voyage planning, cargo docs, ECDIS route optimization, and log-keeping are fully automated, what remains is close-quarters maneuvering, docking in wind and current, emergency response, and crew command — the tier autonomy trials have not touched. Watch for whether operators cut deck officers per vessel or just cut the paperwork load.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Cruise, superyacht, and charter segments where passengers pay for a visible human master already carry a small premium, but this is a narrow slice of the occupation; cargo and tug charterers buy schedule and hull, not the person on the bridge.", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 1 } ], "ceiling_note": "Already 74 and near-ceiling on embodiment, liability, and judgment; realistic headroom is a few points from MASS Code drafting and post-casualty rulemaking. Trust premium is structurally capped — freight buyers do not pay for a named human. The real risk is not score decline but headcount: crew-size reduction per hull under reduced-manning waivers shrinks the occupation without lowering any dimension." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 35780, "wage": 70920 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 36390, "wage": 69180 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 33370, "wage": 72340 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 27590, "wage": 77130 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 33490, "wage": 81640 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 34940, "wage": 95210 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 34520, "wage": 88730 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 35390, "wage": 85540 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 36850, "wage": 92460 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }