{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/carpenters/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Carpenters", "soc_code": "47-2031", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 670090, "median_annual_wage": 60580 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 18, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 5, "trust_premium": 12, "judgment_accountability": 13 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Cutting a bird's-mouth on a rafter to a ridge that's 3/8\" out of level, shimming a jamb until a door swings shut against a racked 1920s opening, and toe-nailing blocking overhead in a joist bay are sequences no digital tool executes; only the pre-cut side — panel layouts, cut lists, and material takeoffs — has already moved to software, which is why this sits at 18 rather than the low teens.", "embodiment": "You work off a ladder in the rain, kneel on a subfloor to nail base, crawl under a house to sister a joist, and carry sheet goods up stairs — every duty happens at an unfixtured, changing location with no controlled workcell, so there is no fraction of the day that maps to a screen.", "liability_shield": "There is no journeyman carpenter license in most states — a general contractor's license or a jobsite competent-person OSHA card sits with the company, not with you personally, so a 5 reflects apprenticeship credentials and fall-protection/scaffold certifications being expected rather than any statute making you the signing party on the work.", "trust_premium": "A finish or remodel carpenter who gets repeat kitchen and built-in work through homeowner referrals owns the relationship, but the same job is routinely won on bid by a crew the client never meets, and a production framer on a tract subdivision is interchangeable to the builder — 12 is the average of those two realities, not a claim that clients ask for you by name.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether an existing header carries the new opening, where to relieve a crown that won't scribe, and when a wall is far enough out to shim versus rip out — real calls made without waiting for the engineer, but a stamped plan, inspector, and code table bound most of them, which keeps this at 13 instead of the high-stakes band." }, "rationale": "Framing walls, hanging doors, setting stairs, and scribing trim to out-of-plumb existing structures happen in mud, weather, and tight crawlspaces where no current robot competes; the automatable slice is estimating, cut lists, takeoffs, and shop drawings. Carpentry generally requires no personal license (contractor licensing is a business-level requirement in most states), so the regulatory moat is thin — the moat is physical. Remodel and finish carpenters carry a real trust premium with homeowners; production framers on tract sites carry less and face more pressure from panelized and prefab components built off-site.", "outlook": "Employment holds roughly steady over ten years, but the work shifts: fewer hours cutting sticks on site as panelization spreads, more hours on remodel, finish, and integrating factory-built assemblies.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State adoption of individual carpenter licensing/registration tied to code-critical assemblies — e.g. mandatory personal certification for installers of engineered lumber, shear walls, or fire-rated assemblies, as already exists for scaffold erectors in some states and for structural connectors under high-wind/seismic provisions in Florida and coastal Carolina building codes. Also plausible: third-party special-inspection rules (IBC Chapter 17) extended to residential framing, requiring a named installer of record to sign off.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Insurer-driven rather than statutory: builder's-risk and homeowner-warranty carriers requiring a certified installer signature on water-management and flashing details after the wave of stucco/moisture litigation — mirroring how EIFS installer certification became de facto mandatory.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as panelization and off-site prefab absorb the repetitive framing tier: what remains on site is set, align, and reconcile prefab panels to as-built foundations and existing structures — scribing, shimming, tolerance stacking. Carpentry genuinely has a production tier and a fit-up/remodel tier, and the second is what survives.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Formal provenance labeling in high-end residential and heritage work — e.g. Preservation Trades Network or state historic-tax-credit rules requiring hand-tool-competent tradespeople on certified rehab, which already condition federal 20% rehab credits on approved treatment of historic fabric.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Field-condition authority formalized: contracts naming the lead carpenter as the person who decides whether an as-built discrepancy is absorbed in the field or escalated as an RFI, with that call documented and binding. Growing in lean-construction and IPD (integrated project delivery) contracts, where trade foremen hold documented decision rights.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already maxed and task_resistance near it — the realistic headroom is almost entirely institutional, and personal licensing of carpenters is the weakest link in the profession's moat with no national body pushing for it. Production framers on tract sites gain little from any of these levers; the gains concentrate in remodel, historic, and finish work." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 693050, "wage": 45170 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 718730, "wage": 46590 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 734170, "wage": 48330 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 699300, "wage": 49520 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 668060, "wage": 48260 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 689770, "wage": 51390 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 700290, "wage": 56350 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 697740, "wage": 59310 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 670090, "wage": 60580 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -3.3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }