{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/carpet-installers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Carpet Installers", "soc_code": "47-2041", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 13780, "median_annual_wage": 50340 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 60, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 18, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 3, "trust_premium": 10, "judgment_accountability": 9 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Kicking a power stretcher against a wall, reading where a subfloor dips, hand-scribing a fill piece around a toilet flange, and rolling seams with a hot iron all depend on force feedback and improvisation that no machine sells today — only the takeoff, square-footage math, and job routing come off your plate, which is why this sits at 18 and not a full 20.", "embodiment": "You are on your knees in someone's occupied bedroom, working around furniture you just moved, in unconditioned new construction or a 90-year-old house with out-of-square walls and staples from the last three carpets — there is no controlled cell to build a robot into, hence the ceiling score.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses carpet installation; the retailer's contractor license and the manufacturer's warranty absorb callbacks, and a failed seam or a stretch that buckles in August comes back as a rework ticket, not a claim against your personal credential — the 3 rather than 0 reflects only that some jurisdictions require a general contractor registration for the shop you work under.", "trust_premium": "Repeat business from a handful of flooring retailers, builders, and property managers who know you show up clean and don't damage baseboards is real work-keeping capital, but the homeowner picked the store and the carpet, not you, so the relationship stops well short of being the product.", "judgment_accountability": "Deciding where to place seams away from traffic and light, whether a subfloor needs patching before you lay pad, and how much to stretch given the carpet's backing are calls you make alone on site with money on the line — but the pattern is bounded by CRI-104/105 practice and the manufacturer's install spec, which keeps this in the middle band rather than higher." }, "rationale": "Stretching carpet over tack strips, seaming with hot-melt tape, cutting to fit around door jambs and stair nosings, and hauling out old flooring in occupied homes is work no current robot performs — the automatable slice is quoting, measuring math, and scheduling. What holds the score down is the absence of a licensing regime or personal liability signature, so nothing regulatory protects the trade; the real threats are cheap labor competition and the shift toward LVP and click-lock flooring, not software. Scored for the modal installer working residential jobs for a retailer or small flooring contractor.", "outlook": "The hands-on work is safe from AI for the full decade, but carpet's shrinking share of the flooring market — not automation — will keep squeezing headcount toward installers who also lay hard surface.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Extension of specialty flooring contractor licensing (modeled on California's C-15 Flooring and Floor Covering Contractors license) to states where flooring work currently falls under a general handyman exemption, combined with a permit-level requirement that the licensee's number appear on the invoice for jobs above a dollar threshold. This creates a nameable person carrying bond and personal disciplinary exposure.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Insurer or manufacturer requirement that subfloor moisture testing to ASTM F2170/F1869 be documented and signed by a certified installer before adhesive or padding goes down, with the signature becoming the point of recourse in mold and delamination claims. Moisture-failure litigation over glue-down and resilient flooring is already the main driver of flooring warranty disputes.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Manufacturer warranties conditioned on installation by an installer holding CFI (International Certified Flooring Installers) or INSTALL credentials, so that a homeowner buying a warrantable carpet must buy a credentialed human's labor. Mohawk and Shaw already tie some warranty coverage to CRI-104/105-compliant installation; tightening that to named-certification enforcement would make the human a purchase requirement rather than a preference.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift as retailer-side quoting, laser measurement, and seam layout move into software: what remains for the installer is the on-site call nobody else can make — whether the subfloor is sound enough to proceed, whether to charge back for unforeseen structural damage, whether to refuse the job. If retailers formalize an installer stop-work authority (as some union INSTALL agreements do for unsuitable substrates), the role owns a consequential ambiguous call.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Adoption of asbestos and lead-safe work practice rules to resilient flooring removal in pre-1980 housing — EPA RRP already covers lead paint disturbance, and old vinyl sheet backing and cutback adhesive are common asbestos-containing materials. If the installer becomes the person who must decide whether a tear-out triggers abatement, the identification call carries regulatory consequence.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment and task resistance are already near maximum, so upside is capped at the three institutional dimensions — and every lever above raises the score against software while doing nothing about the actual threats named in the profile: undocumented low-wage labor competition and the substitution of click-lock LVP for stretched-in broadloom. A licensing regime that raised liability_shield by 5 could coincide with a shrinking carpet market. Note also that credential-gated warranties tend to advantage the shop that holds the certification, not necessarily the installer doing the work as a subcontractor." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 26120, "wage": 38830 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 26100, "wage": 39340 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 26010, "wage": 40090 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 23020, "wage": 41480 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 19790, "wage": 46640 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 17400, "wage": 45240 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 15560, "wage": 47520 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 14980, "wage": 49850 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 13780, "wage": 50340 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -47.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "roofers", "title": "Roofers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 55440, "overlap": 79, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination", "Operation and Control" ] }, { "slug": "riggers", "title": "Riggers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 70, "median_wage": 62640, "overlap": 62, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Repairing", "Troubleshooting", "Operation and Control" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }