{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/chefs-and-head-cooks/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Chefs and Head Cooks", "soc_code": "35-1011", "category": "Food", "us_employment": 200040, "median_annual_wage": 62470 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 16, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 5, "trust_premium": 13, "judgment_accountability": 15 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Seasoning by taste, judging a sear by sound and smell, breaking down a whole fish, and expediting twelve tickets at staggered fire times are not tasks that decompose into machine-readable steps, which puts this at 16 rather than 20 only because the back-office layer — menu costing, prep lists, scheduling, vendor ordering — is genuinely being taken over.", "embodiment": "You spend the shift standing on rubber mats between a 500°F flat-top and a fryer, moving through a crowded line with knives and hot pans, in a space whose layout, ticket volume, and equipment failures change hourly — this is about as uncontrolled as an indoor workplace gets, hence 19.", "liability_shield": "ServSafe or an equivalent food handler card is legally mandated in most states and the person-in-charge requirement under the FDA Food Code names a certified manager, but the exam is a few hours of study, there is no board that can strip your career, and the restaurant's insurance and the owner absorb a foodborne illness claim — that combination is a 5, not a 0 and not an 11.", "trust_premium": "Regulars book because of whose food it is, and a chef leaving takes covers with them; it sits at 13 rather than 18 because most diners never meet you, and the room, price point, and location carry a large share of the draw.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide whether a case of fish that smells marginal goes out or gets dumped, whether to 86 a dish mid-service, how to reconfigure the line when a cook walks out at 7pm, and how to hit food cost without visibly cutting quality — real ambiguity with money and diner safety attached, short of 18 because a bad call rarely kills anyone and is usually recoverable the next service." }, "rationale": "The core of this job — tasting and adjusting dishes, running a hot line through a Saturday rush, butchering and plating, correcting a cook's technique mid-service — happens with hands in an unpredictable physical space that robotics cannot yet handle outside narrow fast-food assembly. What AI does erode is the paperwork tier: menu drafting, recipe scaling, food-cost spreadsheets, par-level ordering, scheduling, and inventory reconciliation. No license shields the role (ServSafe-style food safety certification is required in most jurisdictions but is a low bar), so the moat is physical and reputational rather than regulatory.", "outlook": "Kitchen automation will keep advancing in high-volume chain and commissary settings, thinning production-cook headcount, but chefs and head cooks who run service and own food quality remain in demand through the 2030s.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State/local health codes moving from ServSafe-style certificate-holder rules to a named 'certified food protection manager' who must be personally on premises and signs HACCP logs with personal liability — already the structure in FDA Food Code 2022 §2-102.12 adoption and NYC's food protection certificate; if adopted with personal-liability teeth plus mandatory HACCP plans for sous-vide/ROP (already required by variance in many states), the signer role hardens", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Allergen-disclosure liability naming a responsible kitchen manager, e.g. an FASTER Act-style sesame/top-9 labeling extension to foodservice, or state menu-allergen laws (Illinois, Massachusetts, Rhode Island already require allergen-trained managers on duty) enforced with fines or criminal negligence exposure after a fatality", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Continued growth of explicitly human-authored dining as a marketed category — chef's-name-on-the-door concepts, Michelin/James Beard credit attaching to a named individual, and 'no AI-generated menu' disclosure norms if guides or POS platforms start labeling AI-designed menus", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: as ordering, par levels, costing, and scheduling are absorbed by inventory/POS AI, the residual job concentrates in the judgment tier — tasting and correcting, staff training, vendor and product selection, service recovery. The role does have two genuine tiers, so shedding the clerical one raises the share of work AI cannot do", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Labor and safety enforcement making the chef the accountable party for line-level calls — e.g. wage-and-hour joint-liability rulings, or a health-department suspension record that follows the named manager rather than only the operator", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Already 68 and near-max on embodiment (19) and task_resistance (16); realistic headroom is almost entirely in liability_shield, and even a full CFPM personal-liability regime is a weak moat compared to a professional license, since the certificate is a short exam, not a restricted-entry credential. Displacement pressure here is more likely to arrive as fewer chef slots per venue (centralized commissary production, AI-run back office reducing sous/head-cook headcount) than as replacement of the role itself — a risk the register's dimensions do not capture." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 131430, "wage": 45950 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 128600, "wage": 48460 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 128190, "wage": 51530 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 101490, "wage": 53380 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 129810, "wage": 50160 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 160190, "wage": 56520 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 172370, "wage": 58920 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 182320, "wage": 60990 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 200040, "wage": 62470 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 52.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }