{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/chief-executives/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Chief Executives", "soc_code": "11-1011", "category": "Management", "us_employment": 204350, "median_annual_wage": 213990 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 69, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 13, "embodiment": 7, "liability_shield": 12, "trust_premium": 17, "judgment_accountability": 20 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 13 rather than 17, the honest split is that the memo-writing half of the job — competitive analysis, board decks, budget variance narratives, the first draft of the reorg plan — is already machine work, while the irreducible half is sitting across from a lender renegotiating a covenant, telling a division head their unit is being closed, and reading a room of skeptical trustees.", "embodiment": "7 reflects that the office and the Zoom call are the default, but the job still drags you into plant walkthroughs, hospital floor rounds, site visits before an acquisition closes, and the airport-and-dinner circuit where deals actually get agreed — physical presence that is habitual but not skilled manual work.", "liability_shield": "12 sits above the certification band because there is no CEO licence to revoke, yet Sarbanes-Oxley 302/906 requires you to personally attest to the financials with criminal exposure, and state fiduciary duty law puts your own assets in front of derivative suits — statutory personal accountability without a credentialing body.", "trust_premium": "17 because the board hired a person, not a function: lenders extend the line on your track record, the anchor customer signed because you flew out, and the succession search that replaces you takes nine months and a retained firm precisely because the relationships do not transfer with the title.", "judgment_accountability": "20 is right because nobody above you resolves the ambiguity — you decide whether to take the dilutive round or cut 15% of staff, with contradictory data and no procedure, and when it goes wrong the board fires you rather than reviewing the process." }, "rationale": "The modal chief executive here is not a Fortune 500 CEO but the top officer of a small firm, hospital, nonprofit, or government agency — and the job is overwhelmingly negotiation, capital allocation, hiring and firing senior people, board and investor management, and owning outcomes when calls go wrong. AI already drafts the board deck, the strategy memo, the market analysis, and the earnings script, so the analytical support layer around the role thins out sharply. What does not transfer is the signature: CEOs personally certify financial statements under SOX, carry fiduciary and personal liability, and are the human counterparties boards, lenders, regulators, and key customers insist on dealing with.", "outlook": "The role persists and its leverage rises as AI thins out the management and analyst layers beneath it, but expect fewer executives per dollar of revenue and boards demanding sharper evidence that a human, not a model, made the call.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Statutory personal certification duties extending beyond SOX 302/906 financials into new domains: SEC cyber disclosure (Item 1.05) practice hardening into named-officer attestation, NYDFS Part 500 annual senior-officer certification spreading to other regulators, EU CSRD/CSDDD sustainability and human-rights due-diligence sign-off binding US parents of EU subsidiaries, and Colorado SB 24-205 / EU AI Act deployer duties requiring a named accountable officer for high-risk AI decisions. Each adds a document a human executive must personally sign under penalty.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "D&O insurers or lenders writing covenants that void coverage where a material representation, forecast, or loan certification was generated without a named human officer's documented review — the insurer-side analogue of the sign-off requirement, enforced by contract rather than statute.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: the analytical tier (board decks, market analysis, model-building, earnings scripts, memo drafting) automates away, leaving a residue that is almost entirely live negotiation, senior hiring and firing, and capital allocation under contested information. This raises the share of the remaining day AI cannot do at usable quality without any new law.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Board and lender practice codifying human presence: NACD/institutional-investor guidance or lending-agreement terms requiring the CEO personally (not a delegate or automated system) in diligence sessions, covenant discussions, and key-customer escalation. Headroom is small because this is already near-universal informally.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "judgment_accountability is already at 20 and embodiment has no route. Practical ceiling is roughly 76-78; the binding constraint is task_resistance, since the drafting and analysis layer around the role is genuinely being absorbed even as the signature and the accountability are not." }, "adjudication": { "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict", "outcome": "corroborated", "run_totals": [ 69, 68 ], "run_verdicts": [ "SAFE", "SAFE" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 210160, "wage": 183270 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 195530, "wage": 189600 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 205890, "wage": 184460 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 202360, "wage": 185950 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 200480, "wage": 179520 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 199240, "wage": 189520 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 211230, "wage": 206680 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 211850, "wage": 206420 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 204350, "wage": 213990 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -2.8, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }