{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/child-family-and-school-social-workers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Child, Family, and School Social Workers",
    "soc_code": "21-1021",
    "category": "Social Service",
    "us_employment": 392550,
    "median_annual_wage": 59550
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 70,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 13,
    "embodiment": 13,
    "liability_shield": 11,
    "trust_premium": 17,
    "judgment_accountability": 16
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "At 13 rather than 16, the ceiling is set by how much of the week is genuinely text — CANS/SDM risk instruments, ICWA notice paperwork, Title IV-E eligibility redeterminations, monthly contact logs, IEP-related documentation — while the irreplaceable core is the unannounced home visit, the kinship-placement conversation at 9pm, and the dependency-court testimony that no model can be sworn in to give.",
    "embodiment": "You drive to trailer parks and third-floor walkups you've never seen, look in the refrigerator and at the sleeping arrangements, smell the apartment, physically transport a child to a receiving home, and get between arguing adults — 13 reflects that the assessment is sensory and unscheduled, though you're not lifting patients or operating equipment, which is what keeps it out of the high teens.",
    "liability_shield": "11 sits at the bottom of the licensed band because it is real but jagged: LMSW/LCSW is required for clinical and many school positions and the board can sanction your license, and mandated-reporter statutes attach criminal exposure to your name personally, but plenty of states still hire county child-welfare caseworkers with a bachelor's and a training academy certificate, so the credential doesn't gate the whole occupation.",
    "trust_premium": "17 because a parent under investigation has every incentive to hide from you, and the only reason they open the door, disclose the boyfriend living there, or agree to a voluntary safety plan is that you specifically showed up last month and did what you said — reassignment to a new worker visibly resets a case, which is the clearest evidence the relationship is the intervention.",
    "judgment_accountability": "16 is right because you make the removal-or-leave call on incomplete information, often within hours and often alone in the driveway, and the fatality reviews, news coverage, and civil suits that follow a wrong call in either direction name the caseworker's decision — SDM tools structure that call but do not own it."
  },
  "rationale": "The documentation half of this job — case notes, service plans, eligibility paperwork, referral letters, court report drafts — is exactly what language models do well, and caseload software is already absorbing it. The other half is home visits, in-person child safety assessments, sitting with a family in crisis, testifying in dependency court, and deciding whether a child stays in the home; none of that transfers to software, and state licensure plus mandated-reporter liability keeps a named human on the file. Modal worker here is a public-agency or school-based caseworker, not a private clinician, so the licensure moat is real but uneven across states.",
  "outlook": "Employment holds or grows through the 2030s as child welfare and school mental health demand rises, but the paperwork share of the day shrinks, pushing the role further toward face-to-face assessment, court work, and accountable decision-making.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State child-welfare statutes or CFSR/ACF program instructions requiring that any AI-generated risk score or safety-decision recommendation be countersigned by a licensed (LCSW/LMSW) caseworker who retains personal mandated-reporter liability — the pattern already visible in Allegheny County AFST governance rules and in state bills (e.g. California AB 331-style algorithmic accountability proposals) requiring human review of consequential automated decisions. Also: states that still allow bachelor's-level unlicensed caseworkers moving to mandatory licensure for anyone signing a removal recommendation.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Juvenile/dependency court rules requiring that court reports and testimony be attested by the named worker who personally conducted the home visit, with a certification that no unverified automated content was included — analogous to federal Rule 11 AI-certification standing orders already issued by dozens of US district judges.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Post-fatality reform legislation (the recurring pattern after high-profile child deaths) that names an individual worker of record accountable for each safety decision and bars delegation of the removal call to a screening algorithm; conversely, formal 'decision of record' designations in state practice manuals.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: if caseload software absorbs notes, eligibility forms and referral letters, the residual job concentrates on home visits, crisis de-escalation, court testimony and removal decisions — the score rises by task-mix shift with no new law, though usually alongside caseload increases per worker.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Union contracts (AFSCME, SEIU locals representing county child-welfare staff) bargaining minimum in-person contact standards and caps on AI-substituted client contact; school districts contractually guaranteeing families a named human social worker rather than a triage chatbot.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "trust_premium is already 17 — the modal worker is public-agency, so 'buyers' are agencies under budget pressure, not families who can pay for a human; there is little headroom. Embodiment is intrinsically capped near current level since the physical component is presence, not manipulation."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 306370,
        "wage": 44380
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 320170,
        "wage": 46270
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 327710,
        "wage": 47390
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 328120,
        "wage": 48430
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 340050,
        "wage": 49150
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 344770,
        "wage": 50820
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 352160,
        "wage": 53940
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 382960,
        "wage": 58570
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 392550,
        "wage": 59550
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 28.1,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}