{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/coaches-and-scouts/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Coaches and Scouts",
    "soc_code": "27-2022",
    "category": "Media",
    "us_employment": 248950,
    "median_annual_wage": 47320
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 68,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 15,
    "embodiment": 17,
    "liability_shield": 5,
    "trust_premium": 17,
    "judgment_accountability": 14
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Running a two-hour practice — cueing a swimmer's turn mid-set, breaking up a locker-room conflict, adjusting a game plan at halftime after seeing the other team's press — has no digitizable substitute, and the 15 rather than 19 reflects that film breakdown, opponent tendency reports, practice-plan drafting, and stat-based lineup analysis are already routinely offloaded to software and scouting platforms.",
    "embodiment": "You are outdoors in heat and rain, throwing batting practice, holding blocking pads, spotting a gymnast on beam, and physically pulling a kid out of a drill before he gets hurt — the 17 rather than 20 only because meetings, film sessions, recruiting calls, and travel logistics take real hours off the field.",
    "liability_shield": "CPR/AED, concussion protocol training, and a state coaching credential or NFHS certificate are the ceiling here; no board can revoke your right to coach, and when an injury lawsuit lands it names the district and the athletic director alongside you, which is why this sits at 5 and not in licensed-professional territory.",
    "trust_premium": "Parents hand over their kid, a senior decides whether to keep playing, and a recruit chooses a program largely because of who is going to coach them — that relationship is the retention mechanism and the reason coaching jobs follow individuals between programs, held just under the top band because wins and losses can override it fast.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You decide who starts, who gets cut, whether a concussed or cramping athlete returns to play, and how much load a growing 15-year-old can take — calls made in seconds with incomplete information and real physical consequences, scoring 14 because playing-time and safety decisions are yours to own even though return-to-play protocols and eligibility rules constrain the edges."
  },
  "rationale": "The modal worker here is a high school or youth-level coach, not a pro scout: the job is standing on a field or court demonstrating technique, correcting a 14-year-old's footwork in real time, managing a locker room, and deciding who plays. None of that digitizes — but the scouting half of this title is genuinely exposed, since video-tracking and predictive models already do much of the talent-identification and opponent-tendency work that scouts once produced by hand. Sign-off liability is thin (CPR/concussion certs, state coaching credentials, not professional licensure), so the moats are physical presence, athlete trust, and ownership of playing-time and safety calls.",
  "outlook": "In-person coaching demand holds steady with youth sports participation, while pure scouting and film-breakdown roles shrink as clubs replace headcount with tracking data and video models.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State-level coach credentialing moving from a certificate to true licensure with a named, personally accountable 'coach of record' — the pattern already visible in state concussion return-to-play statutes (all 50 states have Lystedt-style laws) and in newer heat-illness and cardiac-emergency-action-plan mandates (e.g., Korey Stringer Institute-backed state rules) that require a named certified adult to authorize removal and clearance. If a state board adds registry-based discipline plus a requirement that the licensed coach countersign any AI-generated load/return-to-play recommendation, the shield goes from thin to real.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Youth-sports liability insurers and national governing bodies (USA Football, US Club Soccer, USA Swimming post-SafeSport) conditioning coverage on a background-checked, certified named coach physically present per team — insurer riders excluding coverage for unsupervised app-directed training. Already partially in motion through SafeSport Act compliance requirements.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Litigation and settlements naming individual coaches (not just districts) for playing-time-after-symptom and heat-exposure decisions, making the documented judgment call personally attributable rather than institutional. Where districts adopt policies requiring the coach to sign the removal/clearance log, the role formally owns the ambiguous safety call.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier structure: if video-tracking and predictive models absorb the routine scouting tier (opponent tendency charts, first-pass talent screens — already standard via Hudl, Synergy, TrackMan), the surviving scout work is in-person character/makeup assessment, family and coach interviews, and signing-risk arbitration, which is the judgment tier. Composition shift raises resistance even with no new capability barrier.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Continued growth of paid private instruction and NIL/recruiting advisory where families pay specifically for a named human with placement track record — visible in the private skills-trainer and recruiting-consultant market. Any state regulation of paid recruiting advisors (bills of this type have been floated around NIL agent registration) would harden the human-specific premium.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Already 68 with near-max embodiment and trust; the only real headroom is liability_shield, and even full state licensure of coaches would leave the modal high-school coach cheap, part-time, and volunteer-adjacent — which caps how much any credential regime is actually enforced. The scouting half can keep eroding regardless of anything listed here."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 235400,
        "wage": 32270
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 236970,
        "wage": 33780
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 241390,
        "wage": 34840
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 208180,
        "wage": 36330
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 193740,
        "wage": 38970
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 218970,
        "wage": 44890
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 238980,
        "wage": 45910
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 250940,
        "wage": 45920
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 248950,
        "wage": 47320
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 5.8,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}