{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/coil-winders-tapers-and-finishers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Coil Winders, Tapers, and Finishers",
    "soc_code": "51-2021",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 12840,
    "median_annual_wage": 48220
  },
  "verdict": "COOKED",
  "risk_resistance": 28,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 10,
    "embodiment": 11,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 2,
    "judgment_accountability": 4
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "A 10 reflects the split: programmable winding machines already handle turns counting, wire tensioning, and layer indexing on standard bobbins, but hand-taping a 4,000 lb traction motor stator, lacing leads in a rewind shop, and stripping and re-forming burnt field coils still need a person at the bench, which is why this sits mid-band rather than down at 4.",
    "embodiment": "An 11 is right because the work is physical — feeding wire, dipping coils in varnish, working around hot ovens and solvent fumes, lifting stator frames — but it happens at a fixed bench or machine station inside a plant with jigs and fixtures, not out in an uncontrolled field environment like a lineworker or millwright.",
    "liability_shield": "A 1 is accurate: nothing you do requires a state licence or certification card, the coil ships under the manufacturer's UL or IEEE insulation-class listing, and if a winding fails hipot or shorts in service it's the plant's QC and engineering signatures that answer for it, not yours.",
    "trust_premium": "A 2 fits because the customer buys a motor or transformer and never learns who wound it; a coil that passes continuity, turns ratio, and surge comparison tests is interchangeable with one wound by any other shop, and purchasing decisions turn on price and lead time.",
    "judgment_accountability": "A 4 acknowledges the real calls you make — spotting a nicked enamel before it becomes a turn-to-turn short, deciding a varnish dip needs a second pass, judging tension on fine wire — but these are read against a winding sheet, print, and spec sheet that already fix turns, wire gauge, and insulation class, with a supervisor or engineer owning any deviation."
  },
  "rationale": "The core work — winding wire onto forms, taping and insulating coils, dipping and lacing leads, checking turns counts and continuity — is repetitive bench work already handled by CNC winding machines and automated taping lines in high-volume plants. What keeps the remaining 12,840 jobs alive is low-volume, large, or odd-geometry work (traction motors, custom transformers, motor rewind shops) where fixturing an automated line isn't worth it, plus hand finishing and machine tending. That's a shrinking niche, and the pressure comes from mechanical automation and offshoring rather than language AI.",
  "outlook": "Employment keeps sliding as high-volume winding stays automated or offshored; the durable work is custom winding and on-site motor rewind repair.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift within the surviving niche: as CNC winders swallow all repeatable geometries, what remains is diagnostic rewind work — stripping a burned 4160V traction or mill motor, reverse-engineering a coil with no surviving drawing from the damaged original, deciding slot fill, insulation class and connection scheme, and forming odd-geometry coils by hand. EASA-member rewind shops already describe this as the bulk of their work. This raises task_resistance without any new law, but on a shrinking base of jobs.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Field/on-site rewind and taping work in situ — large generator stator rewinds, wind turbine nacelle and hydro generator coil replacement done at height or inside the machine rather than on a bench. If growth in wind O&M and grid transformer repair shifts more coil work to unfixturable field settings (already a stated service line at shops serving utilities), the physical unpredictability rises.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Insulation-system and repair conformance certification attaching to a named person: EASA/ANSI AR100 rewind conformance, IEEE 1068 motor repair standard, or IEC/UL insulation-system qualification being required by utility and OEM purchase specs with a signed test-and-repair record. Also IEEE 43/95 winding test reports signed for warranty. This shields the shop and the certified test technician, not the bench winder, so the ceiling here is low.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Consolidation of the winder role with the repair-decision role in small rewind shops: the same person judges whether a core is salvageable, whether to rewind or scrap a $200k traction motor, and signs the surge/hipot results. Where headcount shrinks to a handful, that call stops being escalated. Watch for job postings merging 'coil winder' with 'motor repair technician / test technician'.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No realistic route to a trust premium: buyers of coils and rewinds specify performance and test results, never a human maker, and there is no consumer-facing artisanal market. The binding constraint is not AI at all — it is mechanical automation of high-volume winding plus offshoring of transformer and motor manufacture, so even the best case here is a smaller, more skilled occupation rather than a safer one. Total realistic headroom is roughly 10-12 points, landing mid-40s at best."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 13300,
        "wage": 33310
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 12190,
        "wage": 34400
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 12690,
        "wage": 36520
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 12580,
        "wage": 37970
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 11090,
        "wage": 38360
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 10860,
        "wage": 43160
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 11900,
        "wage": 44890
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 12170,
        "wage": 47260
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 12840,
        "wage": 48220
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -3.5,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "gas-compressor-and-gas-pumping-station-operators",
      "title": "Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 41,
      "median_wage": 77320,
      "overlap": 58,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Repairing",
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Troubleshooting",
        "Operation and Control"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "sheet-metal-workers",
      "title": "Sheet Metal Workers",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 67,
      "median_wage": 61800,
      "overlap": 53,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Installation",
        "Repairing",
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Mathematics"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}