{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/commercial-divers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Commercial Divers",
    "soc_code": "49-9092",
    "category": "Trades",
    "us_employment": 3450,
    "median_annual_wage": 72990
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 67,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": true,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 9,
    "trust_premium": 8,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Stick-welding a wet patch by feel in black water, cutting a fouled prop with a broco torch, and rigging lift bags on a sunken barge are tasks where hand pressure and touch substitute for sight — the 17 rather than 20 reflects that ROVs genuinely absorbed deep-water visual inspection, tank surveys and pipeline survey hours that used to be dive jobs.",
    "embodiment": "You are inside the hazard: pressure, tides, entrapment, differential pressure at intake gratings, decompression obligations, and surface-supplied umbilical management — there is no version of this work performed from a chair, which is why it sits at the ceiling.",
    "liability_shield": "ADCI cards, OSHA Subpart T dive-team requirements, AWS D3.6 wet-welding qualifications and NDT Level II tickets are all real gates, but they are employer-and-association credentials, not a state licence — the diver's name on an inspection report doesn't carry the personal statutory liability a PE stamp on the bridge report does, and the PE or dive supervisor above you absorbs it.",
    "trust_premium": "Work arrives through contractor prequalification, union hall and repeat client relationships with port authorities and DOTs rather than through anyone asking for you personally, though a superintendent who has watched you handle a zero-viz pile repair will request your crew by name on the next mobilization.",
    "judgment_accountability": "The dive supervisor and the diver in the water make irreversible calls on their own — abort on a current shift, whether that scour hole undermines the pier footing, whether the tag line is fouled enough to blow bailout — under decompression tables and dive plans that constrain but never cover the water you are actually in, which is why it lands at 13 and not in procedure-following territory."
  },
  "rationale": "Commercial diving is underwater welding, cutting, rigging, salvage, concrete repair and pier/hull inspection — dexterous work in zero-visibility, high-current environments no current robot handles. The real automation pressure is not language AI but ROVs and AUVs, which have already taken a large share of deep offshore inspection and survey work; that squeezes the deep-sea tier while inland, harbor, bridge, dam and marine-construction diving stays human. Certification (ADCI, OSHA 29 CFR 1910 Subpart T, NDT and welding tickets) plus inspection sign-off gives a real but non-licensure shield.",
  "outlook": "Deep offshore inspection keeps shifting to ROVs while inland construction, salvage and infrastructure repair diving remains stubbornly human — expect a flat, small, well-paid occupation that increasingly pairs a diver with a vehicle.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State DOT / FHWA underwater bridge inspection rules (NBIS 23 CFR 650) tightened so that Level II/III underwater element inspections must be performed and signed by a diver-inspector who is also a licensed Professional Engineer or certified bridge inspection team leader, with personal liability for the condition rating — several state DOTs already require PE-stamped dive reports; a federal mandate would generalize it",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "ADCI/OSHA Subpart T revision (long-discussed) creating a licensed 'Diving Supervisor' credential with named personal accountability for dive plans and hyperbaric decisions, replacing today's employer-designated supervisor; also API/AWS D3.6M underwater welding requiring a named certified welding inspector's personal sign-off on wet welds",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "As ROVs absorb survey and visual inspection, remaining human dives concentrate on go/no-go calls: entry into confined penstocks, live-boat decisions in current, tag-out verification on intakes. If ROV data conflicts with diver observation and the diver's call governs (as in nuclear-plant and dam intake work under FERC dam-safety inspection requirements), ownership of the consequential call rises",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Two-tier shift: routine hull cleaning, pipeline survey and deep-water IMR go to ROV/AUV and robotic hull crawlers, leaving repair, salvage, obstructed-space and confined-penstock work that resists both robots and remote operation. The daily task mix becomes harder even as headcount in the deep tier falls",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Marine insurers and classification societies (ABS, DNV, Lloyd's) requiring diver-verified in-water survey rather than ROV-only imagery for in-water survey in lieu of drydocking credit — ABS already restricts which IWS scopes accept remote inspection; a hardening of that rule makes buyers pay specifically for a human presence",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Embodiment is already maxed and task_resistance near-maxed, so the score has little headroom from capability dimensions; the risk is not displacement by AI but headcount contraction as ROVs shrink the deep offshore tier. A higher per-worker score can coexist with far fewer workers."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      67,
      67
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "SAFE",
      "SAFE"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 3280,
        "wage": 47210
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 3380,
        "wage": 49140
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 3420,
        "wage": 49980
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 3460,
        "wage": 54800
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 2670,
        "wage": 60360
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 3860,
        "wage": 68300
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 2790,
        "wage": 61300
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 3430,
        "wage": 61130
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 3450,
        "wage": 72990
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 5.2,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}