{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/computer-numerically-controlled-tool-operators/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators",
    "soc_code": "51-9161",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 169450,
    "median_annual_wage": 50690
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 34,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": true,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 11,
    "embodiment": 13,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 3,
    "judgment_accountability": 6
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Loading a vise and hitting cycle start is already done by robot arms and bar feeders in any shop with volume to justify the cell, but fixturing a one-off casting, dialing indicators to find a datum, and hearing a dull insert before it snaps still keep this at 11 rather than down near 5 — the automatable half is the running, not the setting up.",
    "embodiment": "You are inside the enclosure with hot chips, coolant mist, hoists moving 200 lb billets, and a hand deburring tool — physically demanding and hazardous, but a fixed machine in a floored, lit, temperature-managed shop is not a wind turbine nacelle, which is why this lands at 13 and not 18.",
    "liability_shield": "Nothing you produce carries your name; NIMS credentials help you get hired and mean nothing legally, and when a part scraps out or fails inspection the liability sits with the shop's quality system, the engineer who released the print, and AS9100/ISO paperwork signed by someone else.",
    "trust_premium": "Parts ship to a receiving dock and get gauged against a print — the customer does not know your name, and the only relationship that matters is with the setup tech and the programmer down the hall, which is worth 3 rather than 0.",
    "judgment_accountability": "You choose feed and speed overrides, decide when an insert is done, and call the inspector when a dimension drifts — real calls, but bounded by the print's tolerances, the tooling library, and a documented first-article process, so 6 sits at the top of the procedural band rather than in genuine discretion."
  },
  "rationale": "The modal CNC operator loads stock, presses cycle start, watches for chatter or tool wear, gauges parts with calipers and micrometers, and deburrs — physical work in a controlled shop, which language AI cannot touch but factory automation absolutely can. Bar feeders, pallet changers, robotic load cells, and in-process probing already erase the machine-tending core in higher-volume shops, and AI-assisted CAM shrinks the programming edit work that separates operators from setup techs. No license, no client relationship, limited discretion: the protection here is capital cost and small-batch variety, not irreplaceability.",
  "outlook": "Headcount keeps drifting down as one operator covers more automated spindles; the surviving jobs are setup, proveout, and metrology, not button-pushing.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Shops that automate the lights-out, high-volume tier leave the operator with only short-run/prototype and hard-material setup work: fixturing one-off castings, dialing in tolerance stack-ups, deciding feeds for unknown stock. This task-mix shift is visible in job postings that already merge 'operator' into 'CNC machinist/setup tech' — the surviving role is the judgment tier, not the cycle-start tier.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Growth of the mixed-material, low-volume aerospace/medical MRO segment — repair of worn or warped parts where the workpiece geometry differs every time, defeating fixed fixturing and probing routines. Also any AS9100/NADCAP customer requirement for hands-on first-article dimensional inspection rather than in-process probe data alone.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Nothing licensing-based exists for this SOC and none is proposed. The nearest real mechanism is narrow: ITAR/DFARS 252.204 controlled-technical-data handling and FAA/DoD source-inspection rules that name a specific person as the certifier of a machined lot. If a prime contractor flowdown required a named, individually accountable machinist signature on first-article inspection reports (beyond today's QA-department sign-off), this moves from 1 to maybe 4 — not a license, just personal traceability.",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Scrap-authority and stop-the-line authority being formally assigned to the operator rather than a supervisor — e.g. AS9100 nonconformance procedures naming the machine operator as the person who dispositions a suspect part, or IAM/UAW contract language on who may override a program. Where an operator's call on a $40k titanium billet is the recorded decision, this dimension rises.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: buyers of machined parts specify tolerances and material certs, never the humanity of the machinist. There is no client relationship to monetize. Even with every lever above, the occupation stays capital-cost-protected rather than institutionally protected — the ceiling is roughly mid-40s, and it falls as machine-tending automation gets cheaper for small batches."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      34,
      37
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "EXPOSED",
      "EXPOSED"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 151700,
        "wage": 41200
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 149120,
        "wage": 42260
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 157840,
        "wage": 46640
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 179360,
        "wage": 46760
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 187670,
        "wage": 48550
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 176950,
        "wage": 49970
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 169450,
        "wage": 50690
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 11.7,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "industrial-machinery-mechanics",
      "title": "Industrial Machinery Mechanics",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 67,
      "median_wage": 64520,
      "overlap": 87,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Repairing",
        "Troubleshooting",
        "Installation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "electro-mechanical-and-mechatronics-technologists-and-technicians",
      "title": "Electro-Mechanical and Mechatronics Technologists and Technicians",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 55,
      "median_wage": 73900,
      "overlap": 79,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Science",
        "Installation",
        "Repairing",
        "Troubleshooting"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "electric-motor-power-tool-and-related-repairers",
      "title": "Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 60,
      "median_wage": 56210,
      "overlap": 78,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Repairing",
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Installation"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}