{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/computer-programmers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Computer Programmers",
    "soc_code": "15-1251",
    "category": "Tech",
    "us_employment": 92230,
    "median_annual_wage": 100390
  },
  "verdict": "COOKED",
  "risk_resistance": 24,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 6,
    "embodiment": 2,
    "liability_shield": 1,
    "trust_premium": 6,
    "judgment_accountability": 9
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Writing code to a spec, tracing a null-pointer exception through a stack trace, porting a COBOL batch job or updating a maintenance ticket are precisely the tasks a model completes in one prompt cycle, which is why this sits at 6 rather than mid-band — the residual 6 points cover legacy systems with no documentation and undocumented in-house build chains a model cannot see.",
    "embodiment": "The job is a keyboard, a monitor and a repo; the 2 points reflect occasional deployment to on-prem hardware or hooking a debugger to physical test equipment in embedded work, not any routine requirement to leave the desk.",
    "liability_shield": "There is no state licence, no PE stamp, no bar admission and no statutory sign-off for shipping code; when a defect causes loss it lands on the employer's contract and E&O policy, and 1 point is only for the narrow safety-critical niches where DO-178C or IEC 62304 name a qualified person.",
    "trust_premium": "Clients and product owners route work through a ticket queue or a team lead rather than asking for you by name; the 6 reflects genuine value in knowing which module breaks when you touch the billing table, but that is institutional memory, not a relationship a buyer would follow to another firm.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Choosing a data structure, deciding whether a bug is a real defect or an unclear requirement, and judging a fix's blast radius are real calls, but they are made inside boundaries someone else drew — architecture, schema and release approval sit with developers, architects and change boards, which is what keeps this at 9 instead of the mid-teens."
  },
  "rationale": "This BLS title is the implementation tier: writing code from specifications someone else wrote, debugging, updating and maintaining existing programs, and converting designs into working logic — the exact work LLMs now do at usable quality and speed. Unlike software developers (15-1252), programmers are defined by translating requirements rather than owning architecture, requirements negotiation, or production accountability, so the surviving judgment tier is thin and mostly sits in the next job title up. BLS already projects this occupation shrinking, and employment has been sliding for a decade before AI arrived.",
  "outlook": "Headcount under this title keeps falling through the 2030s; the work doesn't vanish but gets absorbed into fewer, more senior software developer and platform roles that supervise AI output.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Safety-critical software regimes attaching named-individual sign-off to code artifacts: DO-178C avionics verification, IEC 62304 medical-device software, and the EU Cyber Resilience Act (in force 2024, main obligations from Dec 2027) requiring a declared responsible person for conformity of software components, plus emerging rules barring unreviewed generated code in certified builds. If an auditable human signature per module becomes standard rather than an org-level attestation, the implementation tier acquires a shield it currently lacks.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift inside maintenance work: if greenfield spec-to-code is fully absorbed, what remains is undocumented legacy systems (COBOL/mainframe batch, vendor-abandoned embedded firmware) where no training corpus or reliable test harness exists and change requires reading production behavior. Watch for state and bank modernization programs that keep hiring maintainers instead of rewriting.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Environments where model use is contractually or legally prohibited: classified/IL5+ defense work, ITAR-controlled codebases, and client contracts with no-LLM clauses. If air-gapped code prohibitions persist rather than being solved by on-prem models, that slice of implementation work stays manual.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Absorption of code-review-of-machine-output as the formal accountable step — e.g. an internal control (SOX-style or SOC 2) naming the human reviewer of AI-generated changes as the accountable approver for production deploys. This converts the role from author to accountable verifier without changing the title.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No plausible route to a higher trust premium: buyers of implementation labor purchase working code, not human authorship, and nothing in the market signals willingness to pay a premium for hand-written logic. Embodiment is structurally fixed near zero. Even with the liability and legacy levers, the ceiling is roughly the low-to-mid 40s, and most of that value migrates to titles above this one (15-1252, 15-1299) rather than to this SOC code."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 199540,
        "wage": 86550
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 178140,
        "wage": 89190
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 152610,
        "wage": 93000
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 132740,
        "wage": 97800
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 120370,
        "wage": 99700
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 109870,
        "wage": 98670
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 92230,
        "wage": 100390
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -53.8,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "database-architects",
      "title": "Database Architects",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 38,
      "median_wage": 139500,
      "overlap": 79,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Operation and Control",
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Service Orientation",
        "Negotiation"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "computer-occupations-all-other",
      "title": "Computer Occupations, All Other",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 34,
      "median_wage": 116580,
      "overlap": 77,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Service Orientation",
        "Negotiation",
        "Reading Comprehension",
        "Learning Strategies"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "software-developers",
      "title": "Software Developers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 41,
      "median_wage": 135980,
      "overlap": 75,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Operation and Control",
        "Installation",
        "Service Orientation"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}