{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/continuous-mining-machine-operators/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Continuous Mining Machine Operators",
    "soc_code": "47-5041",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 14000,
    "median_annual_wage": 61810
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 51,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 13,
    "embodiment": 18,
    "liability_shield": 8,
    "trust_premium": 3,
    "judgment_accountability": 9
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "At 13 it sits at the top of the mixed band because the cutting-head sequencing, tramming, and bolting-cycle coordination are already programmable and remote-operated on newer sections, while reading a sloughing rib, spotting a taking-weight roof, or hand-shoveling a buried conveyor tail still needs a body at the face — the automatable share is large but the residual is stubborn.",
    "embodiment": "An 18 reflects working under supported roof in a 40-inch to 6-foot seam, in coal dust and float dust, near energized 995-volt trailing cables and a shuttle car turning in a crosscut — the environment is unmapped every shift because the mine changes shape as you cut it.",
    "liability_shield": "MSHA Part 48 training, the annual refresher, and state miner and equipment-operator certification mean you cannot legally be put on that machine untrained, which is why this is 8 rather than 2 — but the penalties for a roof-fall or a permissibility violation land on the operator's mine ID and the foreman's certification, not on your personal ticket, so there is no sign-off you own.",
    "trust_premium": "A 3 acknowledges that the section crew's confidence in your tramming and your dust-suppression discipline is real, but no customer buys coal because of which operator cut it — the tonnage is anonymous once it hits the belt.",
    "judgment_accountability": "At 9 you make live calls the plan does not cover — when to stop cutting because the methane monitor is climbing, when the roof is talking and the section needs to back out, whether to advance past the last row of bolts — but the mine plan, the roof-control plan, and the section foreman's directives bound most of what you decide."
  },
  "rationale": "Cutting coal at the face, moving the machine on unstable floor, watching roof and rib conditions, and reacting to gas or water inflow is physical work in one of the least controlled environments there is — language AI does none of it. The real pressure is different: continuous miners are already run by remote control from a distance, and automated cutting sequences plus longwall automation steadily reduce the number of operators per section, while coal demand shrinks the employment base regardless of technology. MSHA training and state miner certification create a real barrier to entry but not a professional sign-off shield.",
  "outlook": "The work stays physical and human-supervised, but expect fewer operators per section as remote and semi-automated mining spreads, on top of continued coal-driven shrinkage in total jobs.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "An MSHA rule (or approval condition under 30 CFR Part 18/75 for permissible remote and autonomous equipment) requiring a certified miner physically stationed on the section to authorize each automated cutting pass, with the certified operator named on the roof control and ventilation plan compliance record — i.e., turning miner certification into a per-shift sign-off rather than an entry credential. State mine boards (WV, KY, PA) already issue and revoke certifications; extending revocable personal responsibility to automated cut authorization is the specific mechanism.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If pre-shift/on-shift examiner duties (30 CFR 75.360-362: roof and rib sounding, methane checks at the face, water and float coal dust judgment) are formally folded into the machine operator's certified role as crews shrink, the operator becomes the named person who stops production for adverse roof or gas conditions and is cited personally for failure to do so.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier job: if automated cutting sequences take over the repetitive shear-and-tram cycle, what remains is the non-routine tier — reading changing roof and rib behavior, judging when to set temporary support, handling water inflow, unplanned geology, machine recovery when the miner is buried or cable-damaged, and moving equipment through bad top. Watch for staffing plans that keep one certified operator per section rather than eliminating the position.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Already near ceiling; only a shift toward more recovery and support-setting work in unsupported ground would move it, and that is bounded by law.",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 1
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No realistic trust premium route: coal is a commodity and no buyer pays extra for human-cut tons. The dominant risk here is not AI capability but the shrinking employment base — thermal coal demand decline and per-section crew reduction can eliminate the job even if every dimension above rises."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 12000,
        "wage": 54620
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 14710,
        "wage": 54520
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 14630,
        "wage": 55280
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 14990,
        "wage": 56920
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 14740,
        "wage": 60300
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 13500,
        "wage": 57360
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 15700,
        "wage": 61420
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 14340,
        "wage": 63380
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 14000,
        "wage": 61810
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 16.7,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "earth-drillers-except-oil-and-gas",
      "title": "Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 67,
      "median_wage": 60190,
      "overlap": 86,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Management of Material Resources"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "crane-and-tower-operators",
      "title": "Crane and Tower Operators",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 67,
      "median_wage": 68080,
      "overlap": 83,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Mathematics",
        "Writing"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "rail-track-laying-and-maintenance-equipment-operators",
      "title": "Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 63,
      "median_wage": 70070,
      "overlap": 83,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Management of Material Resources"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}