{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/craft-artists/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Craft Artists", "soc_code": "27-1012", "category": "Media", "us_employment": 4580, "median_annual_wage": 46080 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 55, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 17, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 14, "judgment_accountability": 9 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Centering clay, kiln-firing to a target cone, bezel-setting a cabochon, and hand-sanding a joint through grits are sequential physical judgments with no digital substitute, but the design sketching, pattern drafting, and Etsy listing work that fills the other half of the week is already being done by generative tools, which is what holds this at 14 rather than 18.", "embodiment": "You work standing at a wheel, loom, bench, or bandsaw with variable material stock — wood that moves with humidity, clay that flops, stone with hidden fractures — and adapt mid-motion by feel; the 17 rather than 20 reflects that most of it happens in your own studio rather than on unpredictable jobsites.", "liability_shield": "There is no licence, board, or continuing-education requirement to sell hand-thrown mugs or silver rings, and the only statutory hooks are CPSIA lead limits on children's items and FTC country-of-origin labeling — neither of which requires a credentialed human, hence 1.", "trust_premium": "Repeat collectors, gallery reps, and craft-fair regulars buy your hand specifically — the maker's story and the fact that you touched the object is the price premium over an identical import — but a large share of sales are still one-off booth transactions with strangers, which keeps this at 14 instead of the high teens.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide glaze combinations, price points, which commission to accept, and when a piece gets scrapped rather than sold — real discretion over your own reputation and inventory — but nobody else's money, safety, or legal position turns on those calls, so 9 rather than 14." }, "rationale": "Throwing pots, weaving, setting stones, and finishing wood are hand skills in uncontrolled physical conditions that no current robot performs at craft quality, so the making itself is safe. The exposure is commercial, not manual: generative image tools flood the visual-design and pattern-ideation layer, product listings and marketing copy are already automated, and AI-assisted mass production undercuts the mid-price 'handmade-looking' market where most craft artists actually sell. Median income here is thin and often supplemented, so demand erosion bites harder than task automation.", "outlook": "The hand-making survives intact, but the low-price handmade market keeps getting hollowed out by cheap AI-designed mass goods, pushing craft artists toward bespoke commissions, teaching, and provenance-driven direct sales.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Enforceable provenance labeling for handmade goods — e.g. FTC action against 'handmade' claims on AI-designed/machine-produced items, or Etsy actually enforcing (and auditing) its handmade policy with seller verification and AI-disclosure tags. A verified 'made by a named human hand' mark that buyers can check turns the current soft preference into a price-supported one. Precedent: EU AI Act Art. 50 disclosure norms, and existing Indian Arts and Crafts Act of 1990, which criminalizes falsely marketing goods as Native-made and demonstrably sustains price premiums for certified makers.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Extension of state-level authenticity certification beyond Native craft — e.g. a state 'certified handmade' registry tied to craft-fair juried admission, or American Craft Council / Craft Emergency Relief Fund adopting a maker-verified mark that galleries and high-end fairs require for booth eligibility.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as the low-margin 'handmade-looking' tier is fully taken by AI-designed mass production: the surviving work concentrates in commission, restoration, one-off architectural/liturgical, and gallery pieces where the client is buying an irreplicable object and iterative in-person judgment. This raises the score for the remaining population while shrinking that population — a narrower, more resistant occupation.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Growth of commission and conservation work where the artist owns irreversible material decisions on a client's valuable object (repair of an heirloom, stone-setting on a customer's diamond, restoration of a historic fitting) and carries the loss if it goes wrong. Jewelers already work under bailment liability for customer-supplied stones; more of the surviving work being of this type raises consequence-ownership.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Narrow route only: state jeweler/precious-metals licensing and assay or metal-content certification requirements, and CPSC children's-product testing where a named maker must certify lead/phthalate compliance. This applies to a minority of craft artists and would not lift the occupation-wide score much.", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "The binding constraint is demand, not capability — embodiment is already near-max and the making was never the exposed part. Even a fully enforced handmade label protects price, not volume; a smaller number of makers selling at higher margin scores better on this register while the occupation contracts. There is no realistic route to a meaningful liability shield across the occupation as a whole." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 4730, "wage": 34940 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 3980, "wage": 34240 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 4640, "wage": 34710 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 4090, "wage": 35180 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 3740, "wage": 35930 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 4760, "wage": 38150 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 5830, "wage": 36600 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 4370, "wage": 38480 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 4580, "wage": 46080 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -3.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }