{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/cutters-and-trimmers-hand/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Cutters and Trimmers, Hand",
    "soc_code": "51-9031",
    "category": "Production",
    "us_employment": 6060,
    "median_annual_wage": 38020
  },
  "verdict": "COOKED",
  "risk_resistance": 27,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 10,
    "embodiment": 12,
    "liability_shield": 0,
    "trust_premium": 2,
    "judgment_accountability": 3
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "A 10 reflects the split inside the job: nesting and cutting flat stock to a repeated pattern is already handled by die and laser cutting cells, while the residual work — trimming flash off an irregular casting, cutting around a hide's flaws, handling limp foam or leather that won't hold registration — still needs a hand on the shears, which is why it sits mid-band rather than at 4.",
    "embodiment": "You stand at a bench in a plant with knives, shears, and abrasive wheels, and the parts come to you — controlled indoor workspace, fixed station, no crawling into attics or working off a lift — which caps this at 12 instead of the 15+ a field trade would earn.",
    "liability_shield": "No state licence, no certification body, no personal sign-off on the piece; if a trimmed part fails inspection it goes back to the line as scrap under the plant's QC system, not against your name.",
    "trust_premium": "The buyer of the finished gasket, garment, or molded part never learns who trimmed it, and you are interchangeable with the next operator on the following shift — the 2 is for the shop-floor familiarity a supervisor loses when a fast, low-scrap trimmer quits.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Cut lines are set by the pattern, template, or scribe mark and tolerances are handed down on the work order; the only calls you own are when to reject an obviously bad piece and when to change a dull blade, which is why this is a 3 and not a 7."
  },
  "rationale": "Trimming excess material from molded parts, hand-cutting fabric or foam to pattern, and deburring by knife or shears are physical tasks that language AI cannot touch — but they are exactly the repetitive, fixed-geometry work that CNC routers, die cutters, waterjet, laser, and vision-guided trimming cells already do faster and more consistently. The job is protected from AI and exposed to ordinary capital equipment, and employment (about 6,000 nationally) has been shrinking for years. There is no license, no client relationship, and almost no discretionary decision-making to fall back on.",
  "outlook": "Expect continued double-digit decline as trimming and cutting cells get cheaper and vision-guided; the remaining jobs concentrate in low-volume custom shops and in setup/operator roles on the machines that replaced the hand work.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift within the shrinking remainder: if CNC/waterjet/die-cutting absorbs all fixed-geometry trimming, the residual hand work is non-repeating, variable-geometry pieces — hand-trimming of large composite aerospace layups, one-off architectural foam, hide/leather cutting where natural material variation defeats nesting software. This tier already exists in leather goods (hide grading before cut) and composites finishing, and does not automate with the same capital.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Concentration of remaining employment into unstructured settings — trimming inside cured composite assemblies, on-aircraft or on-boat-hull finishing, or field trim of installed foam/insulation — where the part cannot be brought to a fixture. Vision-guided trimming cells require the workpiece to come to the machine.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Where hand trimming sits inside an AS9100/Nadcap-controlled composite finishing operation, the trimmer becomes a designated inspector-operator whose call on whether a trim breached ply or exposed fiber is a recorded disposition. If a prime (Boeing/Spirit-type supplier flowdown) requires named operator sign-off on trim-and-inspect steps, discretion and accountability attach to the person.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Only in the narrow craft segment: hand-cut leather, bespoke tailoring, luthiery, where a maker's-mark or 'hand-cut' claim is the product. Requires the worker to be inside a branded craft business, not a production shop, and would apply to a few hundred people at most.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No licensing route exists or is being proposed, so liability_shield stays 0. Even with every lever, this occupation tops out in the high 30s: the displacement pressure is capital equipment already installed and amortizing, which no institutional change reverses, and the headcount base is 6,000 and falling."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      27,
      30
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "COOKED",
      "COOKED"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 12230,
        "wage": 28210
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 10580,
        "wage": 29390
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 9670,
        "wage": 30200
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 7980,
        "wage": 31630
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 7920,
        "wage": 30230
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 8250,
        "wage": 36130
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 7220,
        "wage": 37040
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 7070,
        "wage": 38800
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 6060,
        "wage": 38020
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -50.4,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "food-preparation-workers",
      "title": "Food Preparation Workers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 41,
      "median_wage": 35320,
      "overlap": 85,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Service Orientation",
        "Coordination"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "dishwashers",
      "title": "Dishwashers",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 38,
      "median_wage": 34810,
      "overlap": 83,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Equipment Maintenance",
        "Repairing",
        "Operation and Control",
        "Coordination"
      ]
    },
    {
      "slug": "cooks-restaurant",
      "title": "Cooks, Restaurant",
      "verdict": "EXPOSED",
      "risk_resistance": 57,
      "median_wage": 37390,
      "overlap": 83,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Management of Financial Resources",
        "Active Learning",
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Management of Material Resources"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}