{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/cutting-punching-and-press-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders-metal-and-plastic/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic", "soc_code": "51-4031", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 171200, "median_annual_wage": 46330 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 37, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 10, "embodiment": 15, "liability_shield": 2, "trust_premium": 3, "judgment_accountability": 7 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Loading blanks, changing dies, adjusting ram stroke and shut height, and clearing jams still need a body at the press, but CNC turret punches with auto tool changers, servo feeds, and light-curtain part ejection already run the cutting cycle itself unattended — the setup and tending survive, the operating does not, which is what puts this at 10 rather than 14.", "embodiment": "You work at a machine that can amputate: hanging 200-lb dies with a hoist, shimming and bolting them into the bed, feeding coil stock, deburring, and checking first-off parts with calipers on a floor with oil, scrap, and noise — not a controlled cell, though it is at least a fixed station rather than a jobsite, which holds it at 15.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates who runs a press brake; the employer's OSHA 1910.217 duties, point-of-operation guarding, and any die-setter qualification are internal certifications and shop policy, so nothing legally requires that the person at the controls be you.", "trust_premium": "The stamped bracket leaves in a tote with a part number and no operator name on it; the only relationship that matters is the QC inspector's sign-off on dimensions, so a customer would never notice a change in who ran the shift.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide when tooling is dull, when a burr means stop the run, and how to tweak feed or tonnage to hold tolerance on a bowing part — real calls made without asking, but bounded by the job's print, the spec sheet, and a setup sheet somebody else wrote, which is a 7 and not a 12." }, "outlook": "Headcount keeps drifting down as multi-station CNC cells and robotic loaders absorb long runs, while the remaining jobs consolidate into higher-paid setup, programming, and maintenance roles in job shops.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Job mix shifts toward short-run, high-mix job shops and heavy/awkward stock where fixturing, deburring, sheet handling, and crash recovery on aging non-networked presses stay manual; robot cells pay back only on long runs, so the surviving press work is precisely the unautomatable setup-and-fix tier.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Routine tending is absorbed by automatic loaders and adaptive CNC, leaving the setter tier: die changeover, tonnage/shut-height and springback correction on new alloys (AHSS, aluminum), first-article troubleshooting. If the title's day becomes mostly setup and process correction rather than cycle-start-and-watch, the residual is judgment-heavy.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "OSHA machine-guarding/lockout enforcement or an insurer requirement naming a qualified person who must personally verify point-of-operation safeguarding and die-setting after each changeover — analogous to existing ANSI B11.1 press-brake and two-hand-control requirements — would attach a named human to each setup, not just a general employer duty.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "AS9100 / IATF 16949 and NADCAP first-article inspection regimes that require a named operator signature on FAI and dimensional buyoff for aerospace and safety-critical automotive stampings, plus material-traceability sign-off, put the scrap/recall call on the operator under ambiguity.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "No realistic route to a trust premium: buyers of stamped parts specify tolerance and cert, never who or what ran the press. Even with every lever, this stays a mid-scoring occupation and the headcount question is decided by cell automation economics, not by the score." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 188520, "wage": 33060 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 186640, "wage": 34460 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 195040, "wage": 35610 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 179300, "wage": 36980 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 179630, "wage": 37630 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 182460, "wage": 39340 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 179230, "wage": 42400 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 174430, "wage": 45590 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 171200, "wage": 46330 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -9.2, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 90, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Selection", "Instructing", "Repairing", "Service Orientation" ] }, { "slug": "welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers", "title": "Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "median_wage": 53750, "overlap": 84, "skills_to_close": [] }, { "slug": "crane-and-tower-operators", "title": "Crane and Tower Operators", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 68080, "overlap": 82, "skills_to_close": [ "Mathematics", "Operation and Control" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }