{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/derrick-operators-oil-and-gas/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas", "soc_code": "47-5011", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 10590, "median_annual_wage": 58620 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 48, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 15, "embodiment": 18, "liability_shield": 4, "trust_premium": 3, "judgment_accountability": 8 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Racking pipe by hand at 80 feet, dressing elevators, adding barite and polymer to the mud system, and clearing shaker screens are all torque-and-touch tasks no language model touches — the 15 rather than 19 reflects that iron roughnecks, automated racker arms, and remote mud-mixing on new-build AC rigs have already demonstrated the whole position can be engineered away, not digitised away.", "embodiment": "You work strapped into a harness on a monkeyboard in wind, ice, and H2S country, on a rig floor that shifts and pressures that change without warning, hauling 30-foot joints by hand — the only reason this isn't 20 is that a share of the shift is spent at ground level on pumps, shakers, and pits rather than at height.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates the derrick position; you need a rig-hand medical, H2S and well-control awareness tickets, and whatever the operator's HSE program requires, and the drilling contractor and company man carry the legal exposure when something goes downhole.", "trust_premium": "The driller hires you for hands and stamina, and the crew you work with rotates with hitch schedules and rig moves — a good reputation on the yard moves you between rigs but no client picks a well program because you're on it.", "judgment_accountability": "You call weight indicator anomalies, flag mud weight and pit-gain changes, and decide when a stand is unsafe to handle — real calls that keep the well from kicking — but the driller and toolpusher own the well-control decision and the drilling program dictates most of what you do." }, "rationale": "Almost nothing a derrickhand does is text or screen work: you're racking pipe on the monkeyboard, tripping tubulars, mixing and monitoring drilling mud, servicing pumps and shakers in weather, at height, on a moving floor. The real threat isn't language AI — it's purpose-built mechanization that already exists: automated pipe-handling and racking systems on modern AC drilling rigs delete the derrick position entirely, moving the work to a chair in the doghouse. This job is physically safe from AI and commercially exposed to rig-generation upgrades plus oil-price cycles.", "outlook": "The task is physically automation-resistant but the position is being engineered out — expect derrick headcount to keep shrinking as older mechanical rigs retire, with the survivors clustered in fluids, maintenance, and the driller's chair.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Automated racking works on new-build AC rigs with hydraulic catwalks and iron roughnecks, but the surviving fleet of mechanical/SCR rigs, workover and well-servicing units, and plug-and-abandonment spreads still require a human on the board. If the drilling mix shifts further toward workover/P&A and small-operator legacy rigs (as US shale matures and idle-well remediation funding under the 2021 IIJA orphan-well program expands), the remaining derrickhand jobs are concentrated in the un-automatable fleet.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 1 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Two genuine tiers exist: routine tripping/racking (automated on new rigs) versus mud system judgment — reading shaker screens, viscosity and gel strength, spotting early kick or lost-circulation signs, and hand-mixing additives. If the derrick position on remaining rigs consolidates into a mud/solids-control hybrid role (as some contractors already fold derrickhand and mud-hand duties together), the day's work becomes the judgment tier.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Well-control certification (IADC WellSharp) is already required for the driller and toolpusher but generally not the derrickhand. If BSEE or a state commission (Texas RRC, New Mexico OCD) extends named-and-certified well-control or H2S-monitoring responsibility to the derrick position, or if operator/insurer contracts require a certificated mud-system attendant on site, a specific ticketed human becomes contractually necessary. API RP 754 and post-Macondo BSEE SEMS rulemaking are the places this would appear.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Stop-work authority is nominally universal on rigs but rarely lands on the derrickhand in incident reports. If contractor SEMS programs and IADC guidance formalize the derrickhand as the designated first-responder for kick detection at the shakers and pit-volume totalizer — a call with real consequence made under ambiguity — the role owns a documented decision.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "No route to trust_premium: the buyer is an operator purchasing footage and days, and nobody pays extra for a human on the monkeyboard. The binding constraint is capital replacement, not AI — automated pipe handling deletes the position on rig upgrade regardless of any institutional lever, so the realistic ceiling is roughly 55 and applies only to the shrinking legacy and workover fleet." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 9590, "wage": 46140 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 11310, "wage": 46120 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 12110, "wage": 46990 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 9350, "wage": 47920 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 7880, "wage": 47230 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 10950, "wage": 51220 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 11510, "wage": 58210 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 11040, "wage": 62740 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 10590, "wage": 58620 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 10.4, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "crane-and-tower-operators", "title": "Crane and Tower Operators", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 68080, "overlap": 79, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Operations Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "earth-drillers-except-oil-and-gas", "title": "Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 60190, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Technology Design", "Operations Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "rail-track-laying-and-maintenance-equipment-operators", "title": "Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 63, "median_wage": 70070, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Technology Design" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }