{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/drafters-all-other/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Drafters, All Other",
    "soc_code": "17-3019",
    "category": "Engineering",
    "us_employment": 14470,
    "median_annual_wage": 63520
  },
  "verdict": "COOKED",
  "risk_resistance": 28,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 7,
    "embodiment": 6,
    "liability_shield": 3,
    "trust_premium": 5,
    "judgment_accountability": 7
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "At 7 the score credits the part of your week that isn't translation — reconciling a fabricator's tooling limits against a designer's geometry, chasing down which revision of a redline is current, catching that the AI-generated layout put a weld seam where nobody can reach it — but the dimensioning, sheet-set generation, view creation, BOM extraction, and revision-cloud markup that fills most timesheets is already handled by parametric templates and spec-reading tools, which is why it sits at 7 rather than 12.",
    "embodiment": "A 6 rather than a 2 reflects the field trips: as-built verification with a tape and laser measure, walking a shop floor or plant to confirm a pipe run or panel location that the model got wrong, and occasionally handling physical samples or legacy mylars — real but episodic, since the model tree and the monitor are where the hours actually go.",
    "liability_shield": "3 is not zero only because some employers want ASME Y14.5 GD&T certification or a Certified SolidWorks Professional credential on the resume; nothing in state engineering practice acts requires a drafter to hold anything, and the seal that makes a drawing legally issuable belongs to the PE or RA who reviews it, so no statute makes you the last line.",
    "trust_premium": "5 acknowledges that the engineer who has worked with you for six years hands you a napkin sketch instead of a written spec because you already know the house standards — but the deliverable is a DWG or STEP file that leaves the building with someone else's name in the title block, and it gets judged on whether it builds, not on who drew it.",
    "judgment_accountability": "7 recognizes real calls — picking tolerance stack-ups, deciding how to break a complex assembly into sheets, flagging an interference the designer missed — but those decisions are bounded by ASME Y14 standards, company drafting manuals, and a checking/approval loop where the engineer of record absorbs the consequence of a bad one."
  },
  "rationale": "This residual drafting category — the specialists who don't fall under architectural, civil, mechanical, or electrical drafting — spends most hours converting engineers' sketches, specs, and marked-up redlines into dimensioned CAD models, sheet sets, and BOMs. Parametric CAD, generative layout tools, and AI that reads specs and produces drawing packages already handle the bulk of that translation work, and the drafter carries no stamp: a licensed PE or architect signs the drawing, so no regulatory shield protects the role. What survives is the coordination tier — clash detection, as-built field verification, tribal knowledge of a shop's fabrication limits, and cleaning up the AI's plausible-but-unbuildable geometry.",
  "outlook": "Headcount in this small residual category keeps shrinking as spec-to-drawing generation matures; the remaining jobs look less like drafting and more like model coordination and field verification.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift to the coordination tier: if the routine redline-to-sheet translation is fully automated, what remains is BIM/model clash resolution, verifying AI geometry against a specific shop's fabrication limits (press-brake radii, weldment access, stock sizes), and reconciling as-built field conditions with the model. This tier is genuinely resistant because the constraints live in undocumented shop practice, not in any spec the model can read. Watch for job postings retitling to 'BIM coordinator' or 'design technician' with fabrication-review duties.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "If as-built verification and field measurement become a routine assigned duty — laser scanning / reality capture on site, then registering point clouds against the model — the role acquires an unpredictable-environment component. Already visible where contractors run Matterport/Leica scan-to-BIM workflows in-house rather than subcontracting.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If the drafter becomes the designated model checker of record in a formal BIM Execution Plan (AIA G202 / ISO 19650 information-manager role), owning documented clash-resolution decisions and named as Model Coordinator on the contract, the role owns consequential calls under ambiguity rather than transcribing them.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Narrow route only: state PE boards or an employer's professional-liability insurer requiring a named, qualified human to certify that AI-generated drawing packages were independently reviewed before the PE seal is applied — analogous to the responsible-charge review language already in NCEES model rules on delegated work. This creates a documented human checkpoint, but the stamp and personal liability still sit with the PE, so the gain is small.",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "No plausible route to a higher trust premium: drafting is a purchased intermediate output inside an engineering deliverable, and no buyer pays a premium for human-drawn sheets. Even with every lever, the ceiling is roughly mid-40s — the role's structural problem is that the stamp belongs to someone else, and no realistic rule change transfers it to the drafter."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 15300,
        "wage": 50290
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 14580,
        "wage": 51850
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 14600,
        "wage": 52830
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 13850,
        "wage": 54500
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 15300,
        "wage": 54240
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 17980,
        "wage": 57640
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 16580,
        "wage": 59260
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 16010,
        "wage": 62010
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 14470,
        "wage": 63520
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -5.4,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}