{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/drilling-and-boring-machine-tool-setters-operators-and-tenders-metal-and-plastic/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic", "soc_code": "51-4032", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 4680, "median_annual_wage": 49080 }, "verdict": "COOKED", "risk_resistance": 29, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 9, "embodiment": 13, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 2, "judgment_accountability": 4 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Setting a drill jig, indicating a workpiece true, changing a dull twist drill and holding a bore to a few tenths still needs a person on a manual or semi-auto machine, but the print-to-part loop is fully proceduralized and a CNC machining center with a tool changer does the same hole pattern unattended — a 9 rather than a 4 because deep-hole work, odd fixturing and short-run job-shop parts still get set up by hand.", "embodiment": "You are standing at the machine loading castings, clamping in a vise, blowing chips, flooding coolant and pulling parts to the surface plate — but it's a bolted-down machine on a shop floor with known part geometry, not a job site, which is why this sits at 13 and not at the 17-plus of a field millwright.", "liability_shield": "Nothing you drill requires you to hold a licence or sign for it; NIMS credentials and blueprint-reading certificates help you get hired but the shop's quality department and the customer's PPAP paperwork carry the liability, so there is no legal barrier stopping a robot from doing the operation.", "trust_premium": "The parts leave in a tote with a job number on them and the customer never learns who ran the operation; a 2 only reflects that a foreman knows which operator can hold tolerance on a tricky setup, which is reputation inside one building, not a client relationship.", "judgment_accountability": "Your calls are bounded by the setup sheet and the feed-and-speed chart — pull a chipped drill, re-indicate a part that's running out, scrap one that's oversize, flag the inspector — real decisions with real consequences for scrap cost, but every one of them has a defined right answer, which is why this is a 4 and not a 10." }, "rationale": "The core loop — read a print, set stops and speeds, load and unload parts, drill or bore to spec, gauge with calipers and micrometers — is exactly what CNC machining centers, automatic tool changers, and pallet loaders were built to absorb, and the modal worker here is tending rather than programming. Physical presence in a shop keeps a floor under this job, but it's a controlled, repeatable environment, which is where industrial automation is strongest and where a robot cell pays back fastest. No licensure, no client relationship, and very little discretion beyond scrapping a bad part; employment is already down to under 5,000 nationally, which tells you where the trend went.", "outlook": "Expect continued contraction as remaining drilling work folds into multi-axis machining centers and automated cells; the workers who stay employed will be titled machinists or CNC programmers, not tenders.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift within the shrinking headcount: if the remaining 4,680 jobs consolidate into short-run, one-off boring work on large weldments, castings and repair parts (line boring, mill-turn of oversized housings) where fixturing and datum-finding must be improvised per part and no CNC program pays back, the residual job is setup judgment rather than tending. Watch job postings shifting from 'machine tender' to 'manual boring mill / line boring machinist' in job-shop and MRO segments.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Migration of the work to field/in-situ boring — on-site line boring of excavator pins, turbine casings, ship sterntubes, bridge bearings — where the machine is clamped to the workpiece in an unstructured environment rather than the part being brought to a shop. This is a real and growing MRO niche (portable line boring service firms); reclassification of these workers into 51-4032 would raise the physical-unpredictability component.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Extension of code-stamp / traceability regimes down to the operator level: e.g. AS9100 or NADCAP audit requirements, or an ASME Section III nuclear-component rule, mandating that a named, qualified operator sign the setup and first-article record for safety-critical hole locations, with that signature auditable in a fashion that attaches personal consequence. Today AS9100 requires records but rarely names the operator as the accountable signer.", "plausibility": "unlikely", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal assignment of first-article and in-process disposition authority to the operator under a customer PPAP or AS9102 first-article regime — the operator, not a separate inspector or engineer, owns the accept/scrap/rework call on parts where scrap cost is high (large castings, long-lead forgings). Some job shops already collapse inspection into the setter role as inspection headcount is cut.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with all of these, this is a sub-5,000-worker occupation with no licensure and no client-facing relationship; trust_premium has no plausible route — nobody specifies a human-drilled hole — and the realistic ceiling is roughly the low 40s, reached mainly by the occupation shrinking into its field-service and one-off-setup tier rather than by any institutional protection appearing." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 11030, "wage": 37270 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 11400, "wage": 38020 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 10870, "wage": 38910 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 9090, "wage": 39780 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 6810, "wage": 38580 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 6470, "wage": 42450 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 5740, "wage": 44620 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 5310, "wage": 46630 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 4680, "wage": 49080 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -57.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "sheet-metal-workers", "title": "Sheet Metal Workers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 61800, "overlap": 83, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination", "Installation", "Instructing", "Management of Personnel Resources" ] }, { "slug": "industrial-machinery-mechanics", "title": "Industrial Machinery Mechanics", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 64520, "overlap": 81, "skills_to_close": [ "Repairing", "Equipment Maintenance", "Troubleshooting", "Coordination" ] }, { "slug": "control-and-valve-installers-and-repairers-except-mechanical-door", "title": "Control and Valve Installers and Repairers, Except Mechanical Door", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "median_wage": 74340, "overlap": 79, "skills_to_close": [ "Coordination", "Writing", "Repairing", "Installation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }