{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/driver-sales-workers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Driver/Sales Workers",
    "soc_code": "53-3031",
    "category": "Transportation",
    "us_employment": 409180,
    "median_annual_wage": 38770
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 50,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 15,
    "embodiment": 18,
    "liability_shield": 3,
    "trust_premium": 8,
    "judgment_accountability": 6
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Wrestling a hand truck of beverage cases through a back door, restocking a cooler in planogram order, and finding apartment 3B up an unlit stairwell are steps no current system performs end to end, which is why this sits at 15 rather than 18 — the reorder-taking, invoicing, and route sequencing that used to be the driver's judgment is already handled by the handheld and the dispatch app.",
    "embodiment": "An 18 reflects a day spent almost entirely outside any controlled space: driving in live traffic, backing into blind loading docks, lifting kegs and case goods, and walking unfamiliar properties in rain and ice — the only screen work is scanning and signature capture.",
    "liability_shield": "A 3 is the CDL-free reality of most of these routes: a standard license, maybe a DOT medical card and a food-handler card, and no personal exposure — when product is short or a delivery is late the company eats it, and the employer's insurance, not the driver's license, absorbs a collision.",
    "trust_premium": "The 8 is earned by the store manager or bar owner who knows your name, tells you what's moving, and lets you into the stockroom before opening — real but transferable, since the account belongs to the distributor and food-delivery legs of this SOC have no repeat customer at all.",
    "judgment_accountability": "At 6 the discretionary calls are bounded: whether to swap a damaged case, how to sequence three stops when the dock is blocked, whether to leave an order at the door — decisions reversed by a phone call to dispatch, with route, quantities, and pricing set before you load."
  },
  "rationale": "The modal worker here is a route driver or pizza/food delivery driver who drives, unloads, stocks shelves or hands off orders, takes reorders, and collects payment — physical work in unpredictable environments (traffic, loading docks, apartment stairwells) that today's robotics cannot do end to end. What AI does erode is the paperwork wrapper: route planning, order suggestion, inventory counts, invoicing, and upselling scripts are already software. The real threat is not a robot taking the wheel but route consolidation, app-mediated gig substitution, and the fact that no license or liability rule protects the role.",
  "outlook": "The driving and unloading stay human through the 2030s, but per-driver pay and headcount get squeezed as routing software densifies stops and gig platforms undercut wage rates.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Direct-store-delivery drivers handling beer/wine already need state alcohol-delivery permits and are personally liable for ID checks; expansion of that model — e.g. state bills requiring a permitted, personally-liable human to hand off alcohol, cannabis, nicotine, or Schedule-II/refrigerated pharmacy deliveries, plus FMCSA/state rules blocking driverless handoff of controlled goods — would make a human signature legally load-bearing on a growing share of routes",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State food-safety codes requiring a certified food handler (ServSafe-type card) to be physically present for temperature-controlled handoff and cold-chain logging, as some health departments already demand for catering and meal delivery",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Route drivers who own the account — deciding shelf allocation, credit for damaged goods, whether to refuse a delivery to an unsafe or non-compliant site — carry consequential calls; if bargaining (Teamsters DSD contracts) or company policy formalizes driver authority over credits, returns, and store-level ordering rather than routing it to an algorithm, this rises",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift: when routing, invoicing, and reorder suggestion are fully automated, what remains is the non-scripted tier — exception handling at docks, damaged-freight disputes, merchandising judgment, customer relationship repair. Genuine two-tier role, so the residual job is more resistant than the average of today's",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Narrow route only: named-driver continuity in DSD accounts (bakery, snack, beverage) where store managers demand a consistent human who knows the planogram; formalized in some vendor contracts as an assigned-rep clause",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Ceiling is low. Wage pressure here comes from gig substitution and route consolidation, not robotics, and no licensing lever touches pizza or parcel delivery — the largest sub-segments. Even with every lever above, the modal food-delivery driver keeps a liability_shield near zero."
  },
  "adjudication": {
    "method": "two independent runs agreed on the verdict",
    "outcome": "corroborated",
    "run_totals": [
      50,
      46
    ],
    "run_verdicts": [
      "EXPOSED",
      "EXPOSED"
    ]
  },
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 426870,
        "wage": 24040
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 414860,
        "wage": 24700
      },
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 444660,
        "wage": 25860
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 420890,
        "wage": 27960
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 477020,
        "wage": 29280
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 489510,
        "wage": 32690
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 463120,
        "wage": 35420
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 417420,
        "wage": 37130
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 409180,
        "wage": 38770
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -4.1,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [
    {
      "slug": "cooks-private-household",
      "title": "Cooks, Private Household",
      "verdict": "SAFE",
      "risk_resistance": 67,
      "median_wage": 47940,
      "overlap": 56,
      "skills_to_close": [
        "Management of Material Resources",
        "Operations Analysis",
        "Equipment Selection",
        "Learning Strategies"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}