{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/drywall-and-ceiling-tile-installers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers", "soc_code": "47-2081", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 83080, "median_annual_wage": 58930 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 64, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 18, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 4, "trust_premium": 8, "judgment_accountability": 14 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Cutting a sheet to fit a stairwell soffit where no two studs are 16 inches apart, back-blocking a butt joint, and feathering a three-coat finish that reads flat under raking window light are judged by hand and eye at arm's length — the only parts a machine reliably takes are panel-lift assist and laser layout, which crews already use without shrinking headcount.", "embodiment": "You are on stilts or a Baker scaffold carrying 54-pound 5/8-inch Type X overhead, screwing off ceilings before walls, breathing joint-compound dust in unconditioned shells with temporary power and no finished floor — there is no version of this performed remotely.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses drywall hanging as a trade; the general contractor or the fire-stopping inspector signs off on the rated assembly, and your exposure is limited to OSHA fall-protection and silica rules on the crew, not a personal credential anyone can pull.", "trust_premium": "Repeat work comes from the GC or builder who knows your crew hits schedule and leaves finishes that don't need a re-skim, which is worth real money on the next bid — but homeowners rarely learn your name, and on production tract work the panel goes out to whoever is cheapest that month.", "judgment_accountability": "Deciding whether framing is out-of-plumb enough to shim or demand the framer return, where to float a ceiling to hide a truss uplift, and how to break sheets so seams miss high-traffic sightlines are calls made on the spot with the schedule running." }, "rationale": "Hanging 12-foot sheets on uneven studs, scribing around ducts and outlets, and finishing joints in occupied or half-built rooms is exactly the work robotics handles worst: variable dimensions, overhead lifting, dust, ladders, and constant improvisation. AI touches only the paperwork edges — takeoffs, sheet-count estimating, scheduling, bid letters. There is no license requirement in most states, so the moat is physical and reputational rather than regulatory; the wage pressure here comes from labor supply and crew subcontracting, not from software.", "outlook": "Ten years out the tools change more than the job — lift assists, laser layout, and AI estimating — while the hanging and finishing itself still needs a person on a stilt.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Fire-rated and smoke-barrier assembly work becoming a licensed/certified specialty: some jurisdictions already require third-party firestop special inspection (IBC 1705.17, ASTM E2174/E2393) and FM 4991-approved contractor status for penetration firestopping. If a state or model code extended a named, personally-accountable installer certification to rated wall and shaft-liner assemblies — signed installation records per opening — the shield rises from near-nil.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Silica and lift-related enforcement pushing crews toward licensed/registered contractor status: OSHA 1926.1153 Table 1 silica compliance plus state contractor-registration bills (e.g. residential specialty licensing in WA/OR/CA C-9 drywall license) create a named licensee who signs for compliance. Wider adoption of a C-9-style specialty license across states would add a real, if thin, credential moat.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Level 5 finish and historic/plaster restoration work priced as a named-craftsman line item: architects specifying GA-214 Level 5 with skim coat on high-light-angle walls, or SHPO-eligible plaster repair on tax-credit rehab projects, already buys a specific finisher's hand. Growth of that specification tier — versus commodity Level 4 tract work — raises the premium.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift as panel-lifting and rough-hang assist tools (semi-autonomous board lifts, Canvas-style finishing robots on flat commercial planes) take the repetitive flat-field work, leaving scribing, rated-assembly detailing, deflection joints, and remediation calls. The remaining job is the diagnosis tier: judging whether a substrate is acceptable, when to refuse a framer's out-of-tolerance wall, how to detail a moving joint.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Embodiment and task_resistance are already at or near maximum; there is no headroom there and any movement is downward as jobsite robotics mature on flat commercial work. The realistic ceiling for this occupation is roughly 72-75, driven almost entirely by rated-assembly certification and the Level 5/restoration finish tier. Neither reaches the bulk of residential tract hangers, whose exposure is to labor supply and subcontracting economics, not software — no lever here touches that." }, "adjudication": { "method": "mean of two independent runs; verdict robust to rounding", "outcome": "rescored", "run_totals": [ 71, 59 ], "run_verdicts": [ "SAFE", "EXPOSED" ] }, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 96550, "wage": 42860 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 101900, "wage": 43730 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 102850, "wage": 45700 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 99700, "wage": 47460 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 97070, "wage": 48040 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 91590, "wage": 50440 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 90860, "wage": 55700 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 82900, "wage": 58140 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 83080, "wage": 58930 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -14, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "plumbers-pipefitters-and-steamfitters", "title": "Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 86, "median_wage": 63800, "overlap": 56, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Repairing", "Troubleshooting", "Equipment Maintenance" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }