{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/education-administrators-kindergarten-through-secondary/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Education Administrators, Kindergarten through Secondary", "soc_code": "11-9032", "category": "Management", "us_employment": 328330, "median_annual_wage": 105870 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 69, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 12, "embodiment": 11, "liability_shield": 13, "trust_premium": 16, "judgment_accountability": 17 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "A 12 rather than 16 reflects how much of the calendar is genuinely displaceable — master schedule construction, Title I and state accountability reporting, bell schedules, substitute coverage, attendance and discipline data pulls, budget line reconciliation, and drafting the weekly family newsletter — while the classroom walkthroughs, evaluation conferences, parent conferences and crisis response stay human.", "embodiment": "An 11 comes from the fact that the job is physically located in the building: hallway and cafeteria duty, bus loading, unannounced classroom observations, lockdown and fire drills, athletic events and evening board meetings, plus physically separating students in a fight — but it's a controlled building, not a roof or a roadway, which is why it's not 15+.", "liability_shield": "Nearly every state requires a principal/administrator license through the state education agency, and the signature on the manifestation determination, the IEP placement decision, the Title IX report, the mandated-reporter referral and the summative teacher evaluation is personally attributable — it sits at 13 rather than 18 because the district and school board absorb most litigation exposure and license revocation is rare.", "trust_premium": "A 16 is right because a principal's authority is almost entirely relational: teachers accept a hard evaluation, families accept a suspension, and the board accepts a budget request based on years of accumulated credibility with those specific people, and a new principal spends a full year rebuilding it from zero even with identical credentials.", "judgment_accountability": "17 reflects the calls with no clean procedure behind them — whether a threat assessment warrants police involvement, whether to recommend expulsion versus alternative placement, whether a teacher goes on an improvement plan or is nonrenewed, whether a special education student's behavior is a manifestation of disability — each defensible in more than one direction and each reviewable by a board, a hearing officer, or OCR." }, "rationale": "Principals and assistant principals spend their days on things AI cannot do: walking classrooms to observe teaching, defusing a fight in the cafeteria, sitting with an angry parent, deciding whether a student gets expelled, and telling a teacher their instruction isn't working. The automatable slice is real — master schedules, state compliance reports, budget spreadsheets, enrollment data dashboards, newsletters and family communications — and it will shrink the clerical load and possibly the number of assistant principal slots. But nearly every state requires an administrator license for the principalship, and the person who signs the discipline record, the IEP decision, and the teacher evaluation is legally and politically the one held responsible.", "outlook": "The job stays, the paperwork half of it evaporates, and districts under budget pressure will likely stretch fewer assistant principals across more students while expecting more instructional coaching per person.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State boards of education or legislatures explicitly barring AI as the decision-maker in statutorily-signed acts — e.g. a rule that expulsion/suspension findings, IEP placement decisions under IDEA, and Title IX determinations must be personally signed by a licensed administrator who attests no automated system made the determination. Colorado's SB24-205 and Illinois' HB 3773 (AI in employment decisions) are the template; several state boards already require named-human sign-off on teacher dismissal recommendations.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Tightening of administrator licensure: states that currently allow charter/alternative-route leaders to serve without a principal license (e.g. AZ, TX charters) closing that loophole, plus insurers of school districts requiring a licensed principal of record for coverage of student-injury and Title IX claims.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Genuine two-tier job: if scheduling, state compliance filing, budget assembly, enrollment dashboards and family newsletters are automated, the residual day is classroom observation, discipline hearings, parent conflict, and teacher dismissal conversations — the measured task mix shifts toward the non-automatable tier even with no new law.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Post-Uvalde and post-COVID accountability expansion: state statutes and district contracts naming the principal as the accountable official for threat-assessment team decisions and safety plans, as in Texas SB 11 threat assessment team requirements and Florida's mandated school safety specialists.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Parent-facing pressure making a named, present human principal a contractual expectation — e.g. union contracts or state law requiring a licensed administrator physically on site during instructional hours, blocking remote/shared-principal consolidation.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Assistant principal headcount is the exposed part; clerical consolidation can cut slots even while the principalship itself hardens. Score protection applies to the role, not the number of roles." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2019, "emp": 271020, "wage": 96400 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 262480, "wage": 98490 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 274710, "wage": 98420 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 285910, "wage": 101320 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 302580, "wage": 103460 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 319630, "wage": 104070 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 328330, "wage": 105870 } ], "from": 2019, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 21.1, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": false }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }