{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/electric-motor-power-tool-and-related-repairers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers", "soc_code": "49-2092", "category": "Trades", "us_employment": 14450, "median_annual_wage": 56210 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 60, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 17, "embodiment": 18, "liability_shield": 4, "trust_premium": 9, "judgment_accountability": 12 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Stripping burnt varnish off a 40-year-old stator, counting turns on a coil nobody has a winding diagram for, pressing bearings without scoring the shaft, and megger-testing insulation to ground are one-off physical judgments on machines that arrive with no two alike — hence 17 rather than a 20, because the growing share of your day spent on parts lookup, warranty forms, and standard brush/switch swaps on identical cordless tool models is genuinely scriptable.", "embodiment": "You work bent over a bench or on the floor beside a 200 lb frame, hot dip-and-bake tanks, arbor presses, and live 480V test panels, plus field trips to pull a motor off a pump skid in a plant — the only thing keeping this off a 20 is that the majority of the actual rewinding and reassembly happens in your own shop rather than up a tower or in a trench.", "liability_shield": "No state licenses electric motor repair; you may hold an EASA rebuild qualification or a journeyman electrician card if you also do disconnect-and-reconnect work, and NEMA/UL rules govern the motor, not you — the 4 rather than 0 reflects that hazardous-location (Ex/explosion-proof) motor repair does carry named-shop certification and traceable repair records.", "trust_premium": "Plant maintenance supervisors call the shop that got their critical spare back in 48 hours last time and they know you by name, but the purchase order is written to the business and a competitor with a bigger winding capacity takes the job when you're backed up — 9 reflects repeat account loyalty without you personally being the product.", "judgment_accountability": "You make the rewind-versus-scrap call, decide whether a slight bearing-journal wear means sleeve it or reject the shaft, and choose insulation class and winding configuration when the nameplate is unreadable — real money and a production line ride on it, but a wrong call surfaces on the test stand or within weeks, not as an ambiguous irreversible decision, which is why this sits at 12." }, "rationale": "The core work — disassembling motors, rewinding armatures and stator coils, replacing bearings and brushes, testing insulation with meggers, balancing rotors, reassembling and bench-testing power tools — is manual dexterity inside grimy, non-standard machines that no robot can handle economically. AI touches only the thin paperwork and diagnostic-lookup layer. The real threat to this occupation isn't AI, it's the replace-rather-than-repair economics of cheap imported motors and tools, which has already shrunk headcount to ~14,000.", "outlook": "AI will barely touch the bench work, but the occupation keeps shrinking as small motors and tools become disposable — the survivors will be industrial-scale rewind shops and drive/motor field techs tied to plant maintenance contracts.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Adoption/enforcement of NFPA 70B (elevated to a standard in 2023) and NFPA 70E arc-flash requirements pushing insurers and facility owners to demand that motor repairs on >600V or hazardous-location equipment be certified by an EASA-accredited shop (EASA AR100 / ANSI-EASA rebuild standard), with a named technician signing the repair record. Explosion-proof motor repair already requires UL/CSA-recognized rebuilders to maintain the hazardous-location listing — extending that named-signer requirement to a wider voltage/class band would put personal accountability into the job.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State/OSHA or insurer rules requiring documented recertification of lifting-magnet, crane, hoist, elevator and mine motors after rewind, with the rebuild technician's certification on file as the basis for continued equipment operation.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Right-to-repair statutes with actual coverage of tools and motors — Colorado's HB24-1121 (wheelchairs/ag equipment), Oregon SB 1596, Minnesota's Digital Fair Repair Act — creating a legally protected parts-and-schematics supply so independent repair is a purchasable alternative rather than blocked by OEM parts denial. Trust premium rises only where a customer can actually choose repair.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Tariff or supply-shock driven price increase on imported motors and cordless tools, plus corporate Scope-3 / circular-economy procurement mandates that credit rebuild over replacement, flipping the replace-rather-than-repair math for industrial buyers. This is the single largest determinant of headcount for this SOC and it is economic, not technical.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift as the trade concentrates on large custom industrial motors, traction and mining motors, and EV/e-mobility drive units — where the call of rewind-vs-scrap, root-cause failure analysis (bearing currents from VFDs, insulation contamination), and re-rating decisions carry six-figure downtime consequences. The commodity power-tool bench tier is the part disappearing to replacement economics.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Growth of high-voltage EV traction motor and battery-pack drive unit repair, requiring a technician qualified to work energized HV systems (NFPA 70E qualified-person status, OEM HV certification) to authorize return-to-service on a vehicle that will carry passengers.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "task_resistance (17) and embodiment (18) are already near ceiling and cannot meaningfully rise. The binding constraint on this occupation is not AI capability but replacement economics: even with every lever above pulled, the score would rise while headcount continues to shrink. A high resistance score on a 14,000-person and falling occupation describes a safe job that fewer people hold." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 17220, "wage": 42580 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 15800, "wage": 42840 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 15890, "wage": 44070 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 15380, "wage": 46590 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 15880, "wage": 46910 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 15390, "wage": 48260 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 16010, "wage": 49230 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 16570, "wage": 53990 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 14450, "wage": 56210 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -16.1, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "heating-air-conditioning-and-refrigeration-mechanics-and-installers", "title": "Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 75, "median_wage": 61010, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Management of Personnel Resources" ] }, { "slug": "aircraft-mechanics-and-service-technicians", "title": "Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 71, "median_wage": 79870, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Reading Comprehension", "Equipment Maintenance", "Repairing", "Operations Monitoring" ] }, { "slug": "plumbers-pipefitters-and-steamfitters", "title": "Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 86, "median_wage": 63800, "overlap": 76, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }