{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/electrical-and-electronics-installers-and-repairers-transportation-equipment/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers, Transportation Equipment", "soc_code": "49-2093", "category": "Trades", "us_employment": 6940, "median_annual_wage": 84890 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 16, "embodiment": 18, "liability_shield": 7, "trust_premium": 8, "judgment_accountability": 13 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Chasing an intermittent short in a locomotive's control cabinet means wiggle-testing connectors, pulling terminal blocks, and reading a meter while a helper cycles the system — nothing in that loop can be done by a model, which is why this sits at 16 rather than mid-band, and the 4 points come off because fault-code translation, diagram retrieval, and repair-order write-up already migrate to software.", "embodiment": "You work inside the vehicle — under bus dashboards, in ship engine-room voids, on a truck chassis with a drop light — soldering, crimping, and heat-shrinking in positions no fixture can be built around, and the vehicles come to you in every state of corrosion and prior bad repair, which is what separates an 18 from a bench technician at 10.", "liability_shield": "There is no state licence for transportation electrical work the way there is for a journeyman electrician; you may hold ASE, FAA A&P for some airframe-adjacent shops, or a shop's internal certification, and the carrier's or shipyard's DOT/FRA/Coast Guard compliance obligation sits with the employer, not your signature — hence 7 and not 14.", "trust_premium": "Fleet maintenance managers and shipyard leads know which tech they hand the persistent electrical gremlin to, and that reputation follows you between shops, but the work order comes from a dispatcher on a schedule and the vehicle owner never learns your name, so this lands at 8 rather than in the relationship-is-the-product range.", "judgment_accountability": "Deciding whether a corroded harness gets a splice or full replacement, or whether an intermittent fault is safe to release into service on a passenger bus, is your call with real consequence and no procedure that resolves it, but a supervisor signs off on out-of-scope repairs and OEM service manuals bound much of the decision — 13 rather than 17." }, "rationale": "This work is pulling harnesses, tracing intermittent shorts, soldering connectors, and rewiring control systems inside buses, locomotives, ships, and heavy trucks — cramped, dirty, one-off physical environments no robot handles today. AI does compress the diagnostic and documentation layer: fault-code interpretation, wiring-diagram lookup, repair-history summaries, and parts identification are increasingly software tasks. The real exposure is not replacement but thinning — fewer hours spent reasoning through diagnostics, more hours as the hands executing an AI-narrowed repair, and no licensure requirement to anchor the role the way electricians have.", "outlook": "Employment stays roughly flat through the 2030s as vehicle electrification and sensor density add wiring work faster than AI diagnostics remove troubleshooting hours, but the diagnostic-reasoning premium shifts toward those who hold high-voltage and avionics credentials.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "A named-individual sign-off requirement for high-voltage EV/hybrid work on transit buses and trucks — e.g. a state OSHA or FTA rule tying NFPA 70E-qualified-person status to a specific certified technician who documents de-energization and lockout on 600V+ traction systems, with personal certification at risk. Transit agencies and OEM HV certification schemes (Cummins, BAE, Proterra-lineage programs) already gate who may open a battery box; converting agency policy into a licensure/countersign requirement is the step.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Federal Railroad Administration rules under 49 CFR Part 229/238 requiring an identified qualified person to certify electrical and event-recorder/PTC wiring work after repair, in the way brake-system inspections already require a named qualified inspector. Extension of existing FRA qualified-person language to electrical control circuits is a recognizable rule change.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Marine side: USCG or insurer requirement that vessel electrical repairs be signed by an ABYC Certified Marine Electrical technician for insurability — marine insurers (e.g. survey-triggered requirements after fire claims) already demand ABYC-compliant work on some hulls; a hard underwriting condition naming a certified individual would anchor the role.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as fault-code lookup and diagram retrieval fully automate: the residual job concentrates in intermittent, vibration- and corrosion-induced faults that produce no reproducible code — chafed harnesses, ground-path resistance, connector fretting on one-off retrofit vehicles. This tier rises as a share of hours without any law changing, but only sustains the score if apprentice pipelines survive the loss of the routine tier.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal fit-for-service release authority: a union or agency contract making the technician the person who authorizes a bus or locomotive back into revenue service after electrical repair (door interlocks, wheelchair lift, propulsion isolation), with that release logged under their name. Some transit agencies already log releasing mechanic ID; making it an accountable, auditable sign-off rather than a data field is the change.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: the buyers are fleet operators, transit agencies, and shipyards purchasing on downtime and cost, not on the identity of the technician. Only the small yacht/custom-coach niche pays for a named human, and it is too small to move the occupation. Also note liability gains here attach to high-voltage and rail-safety subsegments; a technician on ordinary heavy-truck accessory wiring picks up none of them." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 12310, "wage": 60840 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 11680, "wage": 60340 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 9790, "wage": 62530 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 10390, "wage": 70200 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 10710, "wage": 77250 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 8530, "wage": 73630 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 7920, "wage": 79160 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 7310, "wage": 82730 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 6940, "wage": 84890 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -43.6, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "ship-engineers", "title": "Ship Engineers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 73, "median_wage": 109530, "overlap": 71, "skills_to_close": [ "Active Learning", "Systems Analysis", "Operation and Control", "Equipment Maintenance" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }