{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/electricians/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Electricians", "soc_code": "47-2111", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 757220, "median_annual_wage": 63190 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 80, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 17, "embodiment": 20, "liability_shield": 16, "trust_premium": 13, "judgment_accountability": 14 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Fishing 12-2 through a plaster wall with no access, bending offsets to hit a knockout that's three-quarters of an inch off print, and chasing an intermittent neutral in a 40-year-old panel are decided by feel and improvisation in the moment, so even though estimating, load calcs and takeoffs are already software-driven, the billable hours sit in tasks with no digital substitute — hence 17 rather than a mid-teens score.", "embodiment": "Every day involves attics at 130°F, crawlspaces, scissor lifts, trenches, live 480V gear in a mechanical room and ladders on unfinished slab — the work is not merely physical, it is physical in environments that change hour to hour and were never designed for a machine to enter, which is what a 20 means.", "liability_shield": "Permitted work requires a licensed journeyman or master under state law, the master's licence is on the permit and the AHJ inspector signs against that name, and a fire traced to a loose lug or an unbonded ground lands on that person's licence and insurance; it sits at 16 rather than 20 only because helpers and apprentices legally do much of the hands-on work under supervision.", "trust_premium": "Repeat service work, GCs who call the same shop for the next tenant fit-out, and homeowners who let you into an occupied house mean referral and reputation drive the book — but competitive bid work on new construction is awarded on price to a licence number nobody has met, which caps this at 13 instead of the high teens.", "judgment_accountability": "Deciding whether an existing service can carry a new heat pump, whether that 60-year-old cloth-wire branch circuit gets repaired or condemned, or how to safely energize when the shutdown window has already closed are calls made on incomplete information with fire and electrocution as the failure mode, though NEC tables and inspection bound the discretion enough to keep it at 14 rather than higher." }, "rationale": "The core of the job — pulling wire through finished walls, terminating panels, bending conduit in a joist bay, troubleshooting a dead circuit in an occupied building — happens in cramped, non-standardized physical spaces that no current robot handles. AI can already read prints, size conductors, generate load calculations, write estimates and permit paperwork, and diagnose from a photo of a panel, which trims the office and pre-planning hours but not the fieldwork. Most states require a licensed journeyman or master electrician for permitted work and inspection sign-off, and that person carries personal liability for a fire or a shock, which is a regulatory moat that could narrow but shows no sign of doing so.", "outlook": "Demand grows through the 2030s on electrification, data centers, and an aging workforce retiring faster than apprentices replace them; AI eats the estimating desk, not the ladder.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State adoption of NEC 2026/2029 cycles plus state licensing boards extending permit-and-sign-off requirements into currently exempt categories: EV charger installs (already required in CA per Title 24 and CALGreen), residential battery storage/ESS, and rooftop solar DC work. Also plausible: state boards writing rules that AI-generated load calcs or arc-flash studies require a licensed master electrician's stamp, mirroring the engineering boards' position on AI-generated drawings.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "NFPA 70E arc-flash risk assessment and energized-work permits placing the qualified-person determination explicitly on the individual electrician, plus OSHA enforcement treating that call as personally attributable. As data center, ESS and high-amperage EV infrastructure work grows, the consequential call (energize or not, is this de-energized and verified) concentrates in fewer named people.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as AI absorbs estimating, takeoffs, permit paperwork and code lookup: the residual day becomes troubleshooting intermittent faults, retrofit work in non-standard existing buildings, and commissioning of complex systems — the tier where the print does not match the wall. This raises the share of the job that is judgment-plus-hands without any new law.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Insurer-driven: property carriers requiring documented licensed-electrician installation for battery storage or EV charging as a condition of homeowner coverage, and utility interconnection agreements naming a licensed installer. This is a mandated preference rather than a taste preference, but it functions as buyer-side insistence on a specific human.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Already 80/100 with embodiment maxed and task_resistance near ceiling; realistic headroom is only a few points, concentrated in liability and named-accountability rules. The genuine downside risk is not robots but headcount per project: prefab assemblies, modular wiring harnesses, and AI-compressed office hours can shrink crew sizes and apprentice slots while leaving the licensed journeyman's score untouched — the register can stay SAFE while the occupation employs fewer people." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 631080, "wage": 54110 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 655840, "wage": 55190 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 688620, "wage": 56180 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 656510, "wage": 56900 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 650580, "wage": 60040 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 690050, "wage": 60240 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 712580, "wage": 61590 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 742580, "wage": 62350 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 757220, "wage": 63190 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 20, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }