{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/elementary-school-teachers-except-special-education/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education", "soc_code": "25-2021", "category": "Education", "us_employment": 1388390, "median_annual_wage": 63970 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 72, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 13, "embodiment": 15, "liability_shield": 13, "trust_premium": 18, "judgment_accountability": 13 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "A 13 reflects the split you live: the generative half of your prep — leveled passages, exit tickets, IEP-adjacent accommodation language, standards-aligned unit maps, Friday newsletters — is genuinely being drafted by a model now, while teaching a child to decode CVC words, running a small group where one kid is crying and another is under the table, and reading the room during a fire drill do not decompose into prompts.", "embodiment": "15 puts you above nurses' aides in a controlled ward and below a lineman: the room is uncontrolled — playground duty, lunchroom, bathroom escorts, a vomit incident before 9am, physically redirecting a bolting student — but it's still an indoor space you know, with a floor plan and a door.", "liability_shield": "13 is state licensure plus mandated-reporter statute plus in loco parentis custody, which legally requires a certified adult present for the instructional day; it's not 18 because the liability mostly runs through the district's insurance and your union contract rather than landing on you personally the way it does on a physician's malpractice policy.", "trust_premium": "18 because the second-grader who will read for you and not for a substitute is the entire mechanism of the job — parents choose schools by teacher reputation, and a year of attachment to one adult is what makes the academic gains happen, which is why long-term-sub coverage measurably underperforms.", "judgment_accountability": "13 sits where it does because you make consequential unscripted calls daily — whether that bruise is a DCF call, whether to hold a child at Tier 2 or refer for evaluation, how to seat and pair a class — but curriculum pacing, adopted reading programs, and state testing windows are handed to you, so the frame is set by someone else." }, "rationale": "The paperwork layer of this job — lesson plans, worksheets, rubrics, differentiated reading passages, parent newsletters, report-card comment drafts — is already being generated by AI in minutes. But the actual work is keeping 24 seven-year-olds regulated, safe, and learning in one room for six hours, which is embodied supervision of minors that no software or robot performs. State licensure, mandated-reporter duty, and in loco parentis custody make a certified adult legally necessary in the room; that shield is regulatory and durable but not permanent.", "outlook": "Headcount holds roughly steady on enrollment and class-size rules rather than AI, but the prep-and-grading half of the week compresses hard, and teachers who redirect that time into intervention and family relationships will be the ones districts protect.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State legislatures or boards codifying that AI cannot serve as the adult supervising minors and that a certified teacher of record must personally sign off on IEP-adjacent instructional decisions, grades, and AI-generated student data used in placement — e.g. extending the pattern in state AI-in-education guidance (Ohio, Tennessee 'teacher of record' language, California AB 2876) into binding staffing ratios rather than advisory guidance", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Union contract language (NEA/AFT locals, e.g. the AFT-Microsoft/OpenAI training academy paired with bargaining demands) that bars AI-generated grades or discipline records from being entered without a named licensed employee accepting responsibility, plus mandated-reporter duty explicitly non-delegable to software", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: if worksheet generation, differentiation, and report-card comments are fully automated, the residual day is behavior de-escalation, live diagnosis of why a child is stuck, and family conflict — the judgment tier already dominant here, so the shift is small but real", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Post-pandemic expansion of teacher role in threat assessment, child-welfare referral, and retention/promotion decisions under state third-grade reading-gate laws (Mississippi, Michigan, Tennessee) where the classroom teacher's documented judgment is the exception pathway", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Parental backlash codified as choice: districts offering explicit 'human-taught, low-screen' classrooms as an enrollment option after state phone/screen-time restrictions, making the human adult the advertised product rather than the default", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "trust_premium at 18 and embodiment at 15 are near their practical ceilings; supervision of minors in a room is already the whole moat. The realistic downside risk is not automation but headcount — larger class sizes with AI tutoring aides, or paraprofessional substitution, which cuts the number of jobs without changing any dimension score." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 1409140, "wage": 57160 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 1410970, "wage": 58230 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 1430480, "wage": 59670 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 1364870, "wage": 60940 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 1329280, "wage": 61400 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 1394200, "wage": 61690 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 1410070, "wage": 63680 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 1393310, "wage": 62340 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 1388390, "wage": 63970 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -1.5, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }