{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/elevator-and-escalator-installers-and-repairers/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Elevator and Escalator Installers and Repairers",
    "soc_code": "47-4021",
    "category": "Construction",
    "us_employment": 23790,
    "median_annual_wage": 109910
  },
  "verdict": "SAFE",
  "risk_resistance": 79,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 17,
    "embodiment": 20,
    "liability_shield": 15,
    "trust_premium": 11,
    "judgment_accountability": 16
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "A 17 rather than a 20 reflects that remote monitoring and fault-code diagnostics genuinely absorb part of the troubleshooting call — some no-fault-found trips get resolved from a laptop — but shimming rails to a thousandth over a 40-story hoistway, re-roping a traction machine, and re-timing a door operator against a worn cam remain entirely manual.",
    "embodiment": "Full 20: the job is performed on top of a moving car, in a flooded pit, on a hoistway ladder, and in an unventilated machine room, with counterweights, live 480V mainline disconnects and open shaft edges — conditions no fielded robot can even be inserted into, let alone work in.",
    "liability_shield": "At 15, most states and major cities license elevator mechanics under ASME A17.1-adopting codes and require a named certified person to sign off Category 1 and Category 5 tests, so the mechanic's card is personally on the line for a life-safety device — short of the 18-20 band only because a handful of states still have no mechanic licensure and helpers work under someone else's ticket.",
    "trust_premium": "An 11 fits because building engineers and property managers request specific route mechanics who know that machine's quirks and the maintenance contract renews on that relationship, but the passenger riding the car never knows who serviced it and most awards go to the company on price and response time, not to you by name.",
    "judgment_accountability": "A 16 is earned every time you decide whether an intermittent leveling fault means run it another week or lock the car out of service, whether a corroded governor rope passes or gets condemned, and how to safely handle an entrapment before the fire department arrives — calls made alone, off-code-judgment, with a fatality as the downside."
  },
  "rationale": "The work is hoistway rigging, aligning rails and guide shoes, pulling and terminating traveling cables, swapping controller boards, adjusting door operators and brakes, and troubleshooting intermittent faults in decades-old equipment inside cramped pits and machine rooms — none of which a language model or any shipping robot performs. AI genuinely helps with fault-code lookup, wiring-diagram search, service-report writing, and predictive maintenance scheduling from remote monitoring data, which trims paperwork and diagnostic time rather than headcount. Most states license elevator mechanics, inspections must be signed by a certified human, and the life-safety liability plus strong IUEC representation make substitution both illegal and impractical; note licensure is a regulatory shield that legislatures could narrow.",
  "outlook": "Demand tracks urban high-rise construction and an aging installed base needing modernization; AI will handle the diagnostics paperwork while the licensed mechanic in the pit stays essential through the 2030s.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Remaining unlicensed states (e.g., several southern/mountain states without elevator mechanic licensure) adopting the ASME A17.1/QEI-based licensing model already pushed by NAESA and IUEC, plus state rules requiring a licensed mechanic to personally sign off on any remote-monitoring-triggered or AI-recommended adjustment before the car returns to service — making the human the named liable party for predictive-maintenance decisions rather than the OEM's monitoring platform",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Post-incident code change after a high-profile entrapment or fall: ASME A17.1 committee adding a requirement that door-restrictor and brake adjustments be witnessed and countersigned by a second certified mechanic, as some jurisdictions already require for full-load safety tests",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift as OEM remote diagnostics (Otis ONE, KONE 24/7, Schindler Ahead) absorb the routine callback triage: what remains on the truck is intermittent-fault chasing on 40-year-old relay logic and non-OEM controllers no monitoring platform covers, plus modernization work — the judgment tier grows as a share of the day",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Wider adoption of contract language and state rules making the responding mechanic the person who decides to take a unit out of service (red-tag authority) rather than a building manager or dispatch algorithm — already the norm in some jurisdictions and a live IUEC bargaining item where OEM remote centers try to override field calls",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Already 79/100 with embodiment maxed and task_resistance near ceiling; realistic headroom is a few points in liability_shield and judgment_accountability. Trust_premium has no plausible route — building owners buy from OEM/service contractors on price and uptime, not from named humans, and no consumer-facing preference for a human mechanic exists. The genuine downside risk is the reverse: state legislatures narrowing licensure scope or allowing remote inspection sign-off would cut liability_shield faster than any of these levers add."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2019,
        "emp": 28350,
        "wage": 84990
      },
      {
        "y": 2020,
        "emp": 24730,
        "wage": 88540
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 22510,
        "wage": 97860
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 24380,
        "wage": 99000
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 23990,
        "wage": 102420
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 23340,
        "wage": 106580
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 23790,
        "wage": 109910
      }
    ],
    "from": 2019,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -16.1,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}