{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/entertainment-and-recreation-managers-except-gambling/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Entertainment and Recreation Managers, Except Gambling", "soc_code": "11-9072", "category": "Management", "us_employment": 37980, "median_annual_wage": 79520 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 56, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 12, "embodiment": 14, "liability_shield": 5, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 14 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "At 12 rather than 8, the split is roughly even: labor scheduling against forecasted gate, P&L variance reports, season-pass pricing, party-booking confirmations and Facebook promos are already largely software-driven, but nothing digital walks the pool deck at close, runs the lightning-evacuation of a 400-person water park, or talks down a parent whose kid got hurt on the inflatable — and those are the tasks that define whether the day went well.", "embodiment": "A 14 reflects that the job is spent in the venue itself — lift lines, campground loops, locker rooms, the ropes course — inspecting attractions before opening, checking chlorine logs and ride restraints, and responding on foot to incidents in weather you don't control; it stops short of 18 because a real share of the week is budget, payroll and vendor work done sitting at a desk in the office behind the front counter.", "liability_shield": "A 5 is right because the credentials involved — CPR/first aid, Certified Pool Operator, food-handler, sometimes a ski-patrol or lifeguard-instructor card — are operational requirements the employer can staff around, and when an injury claim lands it is the LLC and its insurer named, not you personally holding a license a board can pull.", "trust_premium": "An 11 comes from the fact that the returning-family relationship attaches to the place and the seasonal staff more than to the manager's name, but your standing with the youth-league commissioner, the corporate event planner who rebooks annually, and the 19-year-olds who decide whether to show up for a 6am shift is a real asset that does not transfer with a personnel change.", "judgment_accountability": "A 14 is earned by the calls with no procedure to hide behind: closing the slides on marginal weather and eating the revenue, deciding an intoxicated guest leaves, judging whether a head-injury report goes to EMS and the insurer, and firing a popular staffer mid-season — each made in minutes, alone, with the incident report bearing your signature." }, "rationale": "The modal worker runs a physical venue — a water park, campground, fitness center, ski area, event hall — walking the floor, opening and closing, handling guest incidents, and directing a mostly part-time, high-turnover staff. AI already eats the back-office half: staff scheduling, budget tracking, ticketing reports, marketing copy, vendor emails, attendance forecasting. What survives is on-site safety accountability, live crisis calls during an incident or weather closure, and being the person who hires, fires, and motivates a seasonal crew.", "outlook": "Headcount holds roughly flat but the job narrows toward floor presence, safety liability, and people management as scheduling, forecasting, and guest-service admin get absorbed by software.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State amusement-ride and aquatic-facility codes increasingly name a specific on-site certified individual as the accountable operator — e.g. state pool codes requiring a Certified Pool Operator (CPO/AFO) physically present during operating hours, and ASTM F24-derived state ride-inspection rules requiring a named qualified ride operator supervisor to sign daily pre-opening inspection logs. If more states move that signature from 'the operator' (the corporate entity) to a named, personally-liable certificate holder present on premises — as some ski-area and zipline/challenge-course statutes already do under ACCT standards — the shield rises materially.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 6 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Insurer-driven rather than statutory: general-liability carriers for water parks, trampoline parks and campgrounds conditioning coverage on a named credentialed manager-on-duty log signature per operating shift, with coverage voided if the log is autogenerated. Already visible in some aquatic and adventure-park policy endorsements.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Task-mix shift: once scheduling, forecasting, ticketing analytics and vendor correspondence are fully handled by venue-management software, the residual role is almost entirely the ambiguous calls — evacuate for lightning or not, close a slide after a near-miss, eject a guest, decide whether a seasonal hire is safe to be on the tower. The score rises because the denominator shrinks, not because new duties appear.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Same two-tier shift as above, but note the ceiling: the surviving judgment tier is a smaller number of hours, so resistance per remaining hour rises while headcount per venue can fall. Watch for consolidation of the role across multiple sites under one 'area manager'.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Post-incident regulatory response raising mandated physical presence — e.g. state legislation after a drowning or ride fatality requiring documented walkthrough frequency, ratio-based supervisory presence, or in-person incident command. This pattern has followed specific fatalities in trampoline-park and waterslide legislation in several states.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: guests buy the attraction, not the manager, and almost never know who runs the venue. The upside here is nearly all liability and presence mandates, which protect the function without protecting the headcount — one credentialed signer can cover a site that used to need three managers." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2021, "emp": 17800, "wage": 62000 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 22950, "wage": 67220 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 29690, "wage": 73460 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 36700, "wage": 77180 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 37980, "wage": 79520 } ], "from": 2021, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 113.4, "comparable_from": 2021, "spans_soc_revision": false }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "chief-executives", "title": "Chief Executives", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 69, "median_wage": 213990, "overlap": 76, "skills_to_close": [ "Systems Analysis", "Operations Analysis", "Systems Evaluation", "Complex Problem Solving" ] }, { "slug": "education-administrators-kindergarten-through-secondary", "title": "Education Administrators, Kindergarten through Secondary", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 69, "median_wage": 105870, "overlap": 74, "skills_to_close": [ "Learning Strategies", "Judgment and Decision Making", "Management of Personnel Resources", "Quality Control Analysis" ] }, { "slug": "special-education-teachers-secondary-school", "title": "Special Education Teachers, Secondary School", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 73, "median_wage": 74260, "overlap": 73, "skills_to_close": [ "Learning Strategies", "Science", "Instructing", "Complex Problem Solving" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }