{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/etchers-and-engravers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Etchers and Engravers", "soc_code": "51-9194", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 7750, "median_annual_wage": 43310 }, "verdict": "COOKED", "risk_resistance": 28, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 7, "embodiment": 11, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 5, "judgment_accountability": 4 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "A 7 reflects that the file-side half of the day — importing a customer logo, vectorizing it, setting kerning on a nameplate, nesting parts on the bed, running a test coupon — is already handled by templated online ordering and one-click raster/vector conversion, while jig-building for a curved bell or tapered tumbler and judging whether the anneal on stainless came out grey enough to pass still need someone at the machine, which is why it sits above the 0-6 already-automatable band rather than in the mixed middle.", "embodiment": "11 comes from work that is hands-on but in your own shop under your own light: clamping and shimming odd-shaped parts, swapping lenses and cleaning optics, pulling parts through masking and etchant baths, running rotary attachments, and hand-buffing or filling with wax — physical and skilled, but not the uncontrolled outdoor or in-service conditions that push a score past 13.", "liability_shield": "1 is right because no state licences etching or engraving; the only credentials that touch the job are laser-safety and hazmat handling for ferric chloride and nitric baths, and those attach to the employer's OSHA and EPA compliance, not to a personal certificate that a machine cannot legally replace.", "trust_premium": "5 accounts for the trophy shop or plant engraver who has repeat accounts with an awards distributor or an OEM's parts department, but the purchase order specifies part number, text, and depth — the buyer is choosing a spec and a turnaround date, not you, which is why this lands at the top of the anonymous-output band rather than in relationship territory.", "judgment_accountability": "4 fits calls that are real but bounded and reversible on a scrap coupon: power/speed/frequency for an unfamiliar anodized aluminum, whether a mark is deep enough for a UID or serial requirement, whether to scrap a piece with a flare-out — decisions made against sample plates and customer proofs, with the consequence measured in one ruined blank, not the ambiguous high-stakes exposure of the 14-20 band." }, "rationale": "The modal worker sets up and runs laser, rotary, or chemical etching equipment and prepares artwork files — layout, font selection, vectorizing logos, and proofing are exactly the screen tasks generative design tools and templated e-commerce ordering systems already absorb. What holds is the physical half: fixturing odd-shaped parts, tuning power/speed on unfamiliar substrates, hand-finishing, and reject inspection. A thin artisan tier (hand engraving on firearms, jewelry, trophies with genuine craft reputation) sells the human hand itself, but it is not the national median of this 7,750-person occupation.", "outlook": "Employment keeps shrinking as online storefronts feed artwork straight to networked laser machines; the survivors are industrial marking technicians and a small, well-known hand-engraving craft tier.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Growth of the explicitly hand-cut tier: hand engraving on high-end firearms (FEGA — Firearms Engravers Guild of America certification and show-based commission market), signet rings, and Japanese/Italian bulino work, where the sales pitch is chisel-and-graver provenance and machine-cut work is discounted. If gallery/auction houses and guilds formalize 'hand-engraved' labeling the way hallmarking works, the artisan tier's premium hardens — but this covers a few hundred workers, not the median plate-and-trophy shop", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift as templated e-commerce absorbs layout and proofing: what remains is fixturing irregular parts, first-article setup on unfamiliar substrates (anodized vs. bare titanium, coated glass), power/speed characterization, and reject calls. The occupation genuinely has an ops tier under the file-prep tier; if the file-prep half disappears, the residual day is substrate judgment", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Shift of remaining volume toward serialization and marking of odd geometries — medical implants, aerospace parts, gun receivers — where the part must be jigged and rotated by hand and cannot be sheet-fed. Robotic loading exists for flat stock, not for one-off castings", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Traceability marking rules create a documented-operator requirement rather than a license: FDA UDI direct part marking on implants, and ATF marking depth/legibility standards (0.003 in depth, 1/16 in height) on firearm frames, where a botched or shallow mark on a serialized receiver is a regulatory defect. An AS9100/ISO 13485 audit trail naming the operator who signed off the mark is the realistic version — not personal liability, and not a license", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Even with every lever, this stays in the 30s. There is no licensing body for etchers, no signature requirement, and the median job — plaques, trophies, awards, promotional glass — is exactly the volume that templated online ordering plus a laser absorbs. The artisan and serialization tiers are real but small; a rising register score for this SOC would mostly reflect the low-tier jobs vanishing, not the workers being safer." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 8620, "wage": 30890 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 8600, "wage": 31330 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 10310, "wage": 30620 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 9490, "wage": 31790 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 7110, "wage": 36590 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 8400, "wage": 37980 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 8140, "wage": 40040 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 8390, "wage": 40450 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 7750, "wage": 43310 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -10.1, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "paper-goods-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders", "title": "Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 38, "median_wage": 50270, "overlap": 80, "skills_to_close": [ "Active Learning", "Operations Monitoring" ] }, { "slug": "jewelers-and-precious-stone-and-metal-workers", "title": "Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 54, "median_wage": 52540, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Service Orientation" ] }, { "slug": "welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers", "title": "Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "median_wage": 53750, "overlap": 76, "skills_to_close": [ "Installation", "Science" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }