{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/excavating-and-loading-machine-and-dragline-operators-surface-mining/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining", "soc_code": "47-5022", "category": "Construction", "us_employment": 34480, "median_annual_wage": 57430 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 48, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 17, "liability_shield": 5, "trust_premium": 3, "judgment_accountability": 9 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Reading a face for slabbing, feeling the bucket load through the sticks, spotting a truck in dust, and digging to grade around unmarked utilities or unstable highwalls are still seat tasks at most non-tier-1 operations, which is why this sits at 14 rather than in the mixed band — but it is nowhere near 18, because autonomous drills and remote-operated dozers/loaders have already left the pilot stage at Pilbara and Chilean copper sites.", "embodiment": "You are in the cab of a 400-ton shovel or a walking dragline on a bench that changes shape every shift — mud, freeze-thaw slumps, blast dust, night lighting, greasing and track inspections done by hand outdoors — which is uncontrolled-environment work; it is 17 and not 20 only because the operator is seated in an enclosed cab rather than free-climbing the pit.", "liability_shield": "MSHA Part 46/48 new-miner and annual refresher training plus a task-specific hazard sign-off is a documented competency, not a state licence — nobody revokes an individual credential for a bad dig, the operator isn't personally liable for the citation, and the mine operator carries the Part 100 penalty, which puts this at 5 rather than 0 only because the training records are legally mandatory.", "trust_premium": "Nobody buying the coal, aggregate, or ore knows your name; your output is tons on a scale ticket and the only relationship that matters is with the pit foreman and the haul drivers you spot, which is coordination, not a client bond.", "judgment_accountability": "You call whether a highwall looks like it's going to slough, when to stop loading and radio the shift boss, how to sequence a cut so the pattern drains and the trucks stay loaded — real discretion inside a written mine plan, ground control plan, and blast schedule that someone else authored, which caps it at 9." }, "rationale": "Digging, loading haul trucks, and moving overburden happen in mud, dust, and uneven pit walls — physical work language models can't touch, and the machines involved are enormous and expensive. But mining is the single most advanced frontier for industrial autonomy: Rio Tinto, BHP and Komatsu already run driverless haul fleets and remote-operated loaders, and teleoperation centers let one person supervise several machines from a city office, which shrinks seat count fast even where full autonomy lags. MSHA training requirements are safety credentials, not a licensure moat, and no customer pays for a relationship with the operator.", "outlook": "Autonomy and remote operation will thin operator seats materially over the next decade — the surviving roles are fleet supervisors, maintenance-capable operators, and those handling unpredictable pit conditions.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "MSHA rulemaking on autonomous and remote-controlled mobile equipment (an area the agency has flagged as needing standards, currently governed only by Program Policy Letters and site-specific petitions for modification) that requires a named, MSHA-certified competent person on site to authorize each autonomous zone entry, sign off on ground-condition and highwall stability before machine operation, and be personally accountable for violations — turning training credentials into a signature requirement", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 5 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State surface-mining/reclamation authorities (e.g. under SMCRA state programs) requiring a certified blaster-equivalent or licensed operator attestation for overburden removal and spoil placement near permitted highwall and water boundaries, where the individual signing carries citation liability", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: once haul-cycle loading and bench-level digging are automated, the surviving seats are the genuinely irregular work autonomy handles worst — highwall scaling, working in soft or saturated ground, recovery of stuck or damaged equipment, pioneering new benches and ramps where no map exists yet, and dragline tub/bucket work in unmapped spoil. This tier is real and already what remaining operators at autonomous mines spend time on", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Union contracts (UMWA, or the Australian precedent of automation clauses negotiated with BHP) or insurer conditions that designate the on-machine operator as the person with stop-work authority over ground conditions in the pit, with an obligation to override autonomous fleet dispatch — making the ground-stability call formally the operator's", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no plausible route: the buyer is a mining company purchasing tons moved, and no customer will ever pay extra for a named human at the controls. Mining is also the sector where capital has the strongest incentive and the deepest pockets for autonomy, so liability gains would have to outrun a capability curve moving faster here than almost anywhere else. Realistic ceiling around 58-62, and the seat count shrinks even if the per-seat score rises." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2019, "emp": 44090, "wage": 44800 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 40240, "wage": 45150 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 35720, "wage": 46740 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 33670, "wage": 48350 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 32630, "wage": 50050 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 34210, "wage": 52550 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 34480, "wage": 57430 } ], "from": 2019, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -21.8, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": false }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "operating-engineers-and-other-construction-equipment-operators", "title": "Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 64, "median_wage": 59850, "overlap": 89, "skills_to_close": [ "Science" ] }, { "slug": "crane-and-tower-operators", "title": "Crane and Tower Operators", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 67, "median_wage": 68080, "overlap": 88, "skills_to_close": [] }, { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 86, "skills_to_close": [] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }