{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/extruding-and-drawing-machine-setters-operators-and-tenders-metal-and-plastic/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic", "soc_code": "51-4021", "category": "Production", "us_employment": 60840, "median_annual_wage": 47720 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 35, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 11, "embodiment": 15, "liability_shield": 1, "trust_premium": 2, "judgment_accountability": 6 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Threading a new die, setting up cross-heads and correcting a drifting draw are still hand-and-judgment work, but the steady-state half of the shift — watching gauge readouts, logging thickness, nudging zone temperatures and screw speed — is already done by closed-loop control and inline laser gauging on newer lines, which is why this lands at 11 rather than up with millwrights.", "embodiment": "You are at the machine: loading billets or resin into hoppers, pulling hot extrudate, handling puller and take-up reels, working around 400–600°F barrels and heated dies, cleaning purge material, and measuring samples with calipers and micrometers — the environment is noisy, hot and variable enough to put it at 15, held below the top band only because it's an indoor plant floor with fixed equipment rather than a jobsite.", "liability_shield": "No state licence gates extruder operation; a forklift card or lockout/tagout and OSHA training may be required by the plant, but nothing personal attaches to you if a coil of tube goes out of spec — the company's QA sign-off and the customer's incoming inspection carry it.", "trust_premium": "The output is footage of tube, wire, rod or profile identified by lot number, and the buyer never learns who ran the line; the only relationship that matters is with the shift supervisor and the maintenance tech, which is what keeps this at 2 rather than 0.", "judgment_accountability": "Decisions are bounded by the job ticket and the spec sheet — set zone temps to the recipe, hold OD within tolerance, scrap the run and flag it when gauging drifts — and real calls about tooling changes, resin substitution or accepting borderline lots go to the process engineer or QA, so the discretion sits at recognising a problem rather than owning the resolution." }, "rationale": "The work is hands-on — threading dies, loading billets or resin, adjusting temperature and draw speed, pulling samples and measuring wall thickness with calipers — and that physicality is the main protection, since language AI can't stand at the extruder. The real pressure comes from process-control automation: closed-loop die controls, inline laser gauging, and vision-based defect detection already handle much of the monitoring, logging, and adjustment that fills a tender's shift, and one operator increasingly supervises several lines. Setup and troubleshooting of a misbehaving die or a drifting draw survive longer than tending does.", "outlook": "Employment keeps eroding as instrumented, self-correcting lines let one worker cover more machines; the surviving jobs are setup, tooling, and maintenance rather than tending.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: as closed-loop control and inline laser gauging absorb tending and logging, the surviving role concentrates in die changeover, purge/startup on new resin or alloy lots, and diagnosing drift no controller can compensate (die swell, melt fracture, tool wear). Watchable signal: job postings retitled 'extrusion setup technician' or 'process technician' with fewer tender headcount per line but higher skill grade.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "embodiment", "change": "Shift of work toward high-mix short-run extrusion (medical tubing, custom profiles, aerospace drawn tube) where die and tooling changeovers per shift multiply — manual threading, tool alignment and hand-gauged first-article checks scale with changeover count, not run hours. Watchable: plants advertising sub-500 lb lot capability, or medical microtubing lines.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Named-operator sign-off on first-article and process validation records under FDA 21 CFR 820 / ISO 13485 for medical tubing, or AS9100/NADCAP for drawn aerospace tube — where the process validation and lot release record requires an identified qualified operator's signature that an auditor can trace. Also NSF/ASTM potable-water pipe certification schemes requiring certified operator presence. This is attribution, not personal legal liability, so the ceiling is low.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal authority to stop the line and scrap or quarantine a lot vested in the operator, written into a quality manual or a union contract (USW/IAM language on operator stop-work authority). If the operator, not a remote engineer or the MES, owns the accept/scrap call on borderline wall-thickness or surface defects, the ambiguity call becomes the job.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Realistic ceiling is roughly the mid-40s. There is no route to trust_premium — nobody specifies a human extruder operator by name, and the buyer sees only the profile spec. Liability in extrusion attaches to the manufacturer and the PE who signed the process spec, not the person at the machine, so the shield stays thin. Consolidation of multiple lines under one operator continues to cut headcount even where the remaining role scores higher." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 73530, "wage": 34600 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 75610, "wage": 35150 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 76940, "wage": 36320 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 69300, "wage": 37530 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 59490, "wage": 37750 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 63490, "wage": 39970 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 63370, "wage": 44390 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 65700, "wage": 46980 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 60840, "wage": 47720 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": -17.3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "refractory-materials-repairers-except-brickmasons", "title": "Refractory Materials Repairers, Except Brickmasons", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 61290, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [] }, { "slug": "automotive-body-and-related-repairers", "title": "Automotive Body and Related Repairers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 65, "median_wage": 54890, "overlap": 77, "skills_to_close": [ "Service Orientation", "Negotiation", "Repairing" ] }, { "slug": "welders-cutters-solderers-and-brazers", "title": "Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers", "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "median_wage": 53750, "overlap": 75, "skills_to_close": [] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }