{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/financial-risk-specialists/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "Financial Risk Specialists",
    "soc_code": "13-2054",
    "category": "Business",
    "us_employment": 63850,
    "median_annual_wage": 117330
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 35,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 7,
    "embodiment": 1,
    "liability_shield": 6,
    "trust_premium": 8,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "At 7 the split is real but lopsided: backtesting, limit monitoring, counterparty exposure aggregation, sensitivity tables and the SR 11-7 model documentation boilerplate are all rules-plus-prose work that tooling handles end-to-end, and only scenario design and the effective-challenge conversation with model risk management resist — enough to keep you above the 6 line, not enough to reach mixed territory.",
    "embodiment": "A 1 reflects that everything you touch is a data warehouse query, a Python or SAS job, a Bloomberg terminal and a committee deck; the only physical requirement is being in the room for the quarterly risk committee, and that room is increasingly a Zoom call.",
    "liability_shield": "FRM, PRM or CFA are hiring signals rather than legal prerequisites, and when a CCAR submission or CECL reserve is wrong it is the CFO and CRO who attest under Sarbanes-Oxley and to the Fed — a 6 rather than 3 because model owner sign-off and the OCC's expectation of a named independent validator do put your name in an examinable file.",
    "trust_premium": "An 8 covers the fact that examiners, auditors and the trading desks you police come to know and calibrate to you personally over years of credibility on assumptions, but the deliverable itself — a 10-Q disclosure figure, a limit breach memo — is institutional output that survives your replacement.",
    "judgment_accountability": "13 sits at the top of real discretion because you decide which tail scenarios enter the stress suite, when to override a model that is mispricing a regime shift, and how to word a material weakness — high-stakes ambiguous calls, but ones ratified by a committee and a board risk charter rather than owned alone."
  },
  "rationale": "The daily work — pulling exposure data, running VaR and stress scenarios, writing model documentation, assembling regulatory reporting packages for Basel/CCAR/CECL — is screen-based quantitative and narrative production that current AI already drafts at usable quality with a reviewer. What survives is the accountable layer: defining scenarios that matter, challenging model assumptions in front of a risk committee, and owning the judgment call when the model and the market disagree. Licensure is institutional rather than personal (FRM/CFA help but aren't legally required), so the regulatory shield protects the bank's process, not your specific seat.",
  "outlook": "Headcount thins on the reporting and documentation side while the second-line challenge and regulator-facing roles hold or grow — expect fewer analysts producing more coverage, with seniority arriving faster or not at all.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "If SR 11-7 model risk guidance is amended (or Fed/OCC exam manuals updated) to require a NAMED individual model owner and independent validator to personally attest to AI-generated model documentation and validation findings — analogous to the named-officer attestation in CCAR capital plan submissions or the EU AI Act's high-risk 'human oversight' role for creditworthiness models — the sign-off becomes seat-specific rather than institutional",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "If banking regulators extend a Senior Managers & Certification Regime-style personal accountability rule (UK FCA SMCR already assigns a prescribed responsibility for risk management functions) to US bank risk officers, with enforceable individual sanctions for inadequate challenge of model output",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Task-mix shift is genuine here: the occupation has a clear routine tier (data pull, VaR runs, CECL reporting packages, documentation drafting) and a judgment tier (scenario design, effective challenge, breaching-limit escalation). If the routine tier is absorbed and headcount contracts to the challenge-and-attest function, the remaining role's measured resistance rises even as total jobs fall",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 4
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "If supervisory findings increasingly cite failure of 'effective challenge' by name — as post-SVB 2023 Fed reviews did for interest-rate risk oversight — and banks respond by making a specific risk specialist the documented owner of limit breaches and scenario-severity calls presented to the risk committee",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "trust_premium",
        "change": "Narrow route only: if GARP (FRM) or CFA Institute institutes a mandatory continuing-attestation credential that regulators or counterparties begin naming in due-diligence questionnaires for third-party risk validation engagements, external validation buyers may specify a credentialed human. Internal bank employment shows no comparable mechanism",
        "plausibility": "unlikely",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Embodiment has no route — this is entirely screen work. The structural ceiling is that risk-management liability in the US attaches to the institution and its board, not to a licensed individual seat; without a statutory personal-attestation regime the shield stays weak no matter how consequential the judgment. Even with every lever above, the occupation likely tops out in the 50s, and rising per-seat resistance is compatible with sharply fewer seats."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 54320,
        "wage": 100000
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 55800,
        "wage": 102120
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 55290,
        "wage": 106090
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 56320,
        "wage": 106000
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 63850,
        "wage": 117330
      }
    ],
    "from": 2021,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 17.5,
    "comparable_from": 2021,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}