{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-correctional-officers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers", "soc_code": "33-1011", "category": "Protective Service", "us_employment": 53380, "median_annual_wage": 77970 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 68, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 18, "liability_shield": 9, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 16 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Cell extractions, pat searches, escorting agitated inmates to segregation, and standing a post during a lockdown are physical supervision tasks with no digital substitute, but the 14 rather than 18 reflects that a meaningful chunk of the shift is roster building, use-of-force report narratives, grievance responses and count sheets that drafting tools already touch.", "embodiment": "You work inside housing units and yards where the environment is deliberately unpredictable — contraband shakedowns, medical emergencies on the tier, fights that start behind a blind spot — and an 18 rather than 20 only acknowledges the hours spent in the sergeant's office and at the control panel.", "liability_shield": "Most states require academy certification and annual firearms/use-of-force recertification rather than a portable professional licence, so you can be disciplined, indicted, or sued under §1983 for deliberate indifference, but there is no licensing board whose existence keeps the post staffed by a human — the agency could redefine the rank tomorrow.", "trust_premium": "Line officers follow you because they have seen you respond to a Code, and inmates calibrate their behavior to which sergeant is on shift, but the 11 reflects that the badge and rank carry authority independent of you personally — a transferred sergeant is replaced, not mourned.", "judgment_accountability": "You decide in seconds whether a situation warrants OC spray, a five-man team, or talking a man off a railing, and that call gets reconstructed frame by frame in internal affairs, PREA review, or a deposition years later, with your name on the authorization." }, "rationale": "The job is walking tiers, reading inmate mood, breaking up fights, directing use-of-force responses, and standing behind those calls in an internal affairs review — none of which a language model can do. The automatable slice is real but bounded: shift rosters, incident report drafting, disciplinary paperwork, count reconciliation, and post-order documentation. Employment risk here comes from prison population trends and budget consolidation, not from AI replacing the sergeant on the floor.", "outlook": "Headcount drifts down with declining inmate populations and facility closures rather than automation; the sergeants who remain will do less paperwork and more floor command, emergency response, and officer development.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State POST/corrections-standards boards making certified supervisor sign-off a named requirement for use-of-force reviews, restraint and segregation placement authorizations, and suicide-watch level changes — the pattern already in DOJ consent decrees (e.g., Alabama, Rikers-related NY mandates) and in PREA compliance audits, which require a named staff member to be accountable for each classification/housing decision. If AI-generated risk-classification tools enter prisons, an explicit rule that a licensed/certified supervisor must countersign any automated segregation or classification recommendation would add materially.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Expansion of individual-liability exposure for supervisors through narrowing of qualified immunity in deliberate-indifference suits (Section 1983 failure-to-protect and medical-need claims), plus consent-decree provisions naming the shift supervisor as the accountable decision-maker for each incident. Every automated tool added to the tier increases rather than reduces the supervisor's role as the human who overrode or accepted the machine.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: if rostering, incident-report drafting, count reconciliation and disciplinary paperwork are absorbed by corrections management software, the residual role is almost entirely the judgment tier — de-escalation, use-of-force direction, staff discipline, and testimony. This occupation genuinely has two separable tiers, so automating the lower one raises the resistance of what remains.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Correctional officer union contracts (AFSCME, CCPOA, NYSCOPBA) bargaining minimum supervisor-to-post ratios and a required certified supervisor present for any cell extraction or forced-medication event — ratio language of this kind already exists in several state contracts and is checkable in the CBA text.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no realistic route: the buyer is a state or county corrections agency purchasing on budget and consent-decree compliance, not a customer choosing a human. Embodiment is already near ceiling at 18. Real employment risk remains decarceration, facility closure, and budget consolidation, which no dimension here captures." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 42280, "wage": 62500 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 43760, "wage": 63340 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 46430, "wage": 63730 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 53420, "wage": 60910 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 54470, "wage": 62220 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 55900, "wage": 63310 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 52280, "wage": 70530 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 53390, "wage": 76310 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 53380, "wage": 77970 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 26.3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }