{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-entertainment-and-recreation-workers-except-gambling-services/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "First-Line Supervisors of Entertainment and Recreation Workers, Except Gambling Services",
    "soc_code": "39-1014",
    "category": "Personal Care",
    "us_employment": 103190,
    "median_annual_wage": 48560
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 60,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 13,
    "embodiment": 16,
    "liability_shield": 6,
    "trust_premium": 12,
    "judgment_accountability": 13
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Scheduling, payroll coding, incident-report drafting, and headcount forecasting are already software problems, but the other half of the day — walking a pool deck to catch a lifeguard whose scanning has gone slack, pulling a new hire aside mid-shift to re-teach a harness check, deciding staffing when three people call out on a 95-degree Saturday — needs a person present, which puts it at the top of mixed rather than into resistant.",
    "embodiment": "The job is done standing in the environment being supervised: wet tile, ski slopes in weather, ropes-course platforms, camp grounds after dark, crowded midways — you do rescues and first aid yourself, physically clear a stuck ride queue, and cover a guard chair or belay station when short-staffed, which is uncontrolled-environment work rather than a facility walk-through.",
    "liability_shield": "Employers typically want lifeguard/CPR/AED, Ellis or Red Cross instructor cards, ride-operator or challenge-course certifications, and in some states a camp director credential — real gates, but they are renewable certifications, not a state licence that makes you personally sueable, so negligence claims land on the operator's insurer and the general manager rather than your name.",
    "trust_premium": "Seasonal staff — teenagers and college students — stay or quit largely because of you, and repeat season-pass families and youth-league parents ask for the supervisor they know; but guests are mostly transient ticket-holders who would accept any competent person in your polo, so the relationship matters without being the product.",
    "judgment_accountability": "Closing a waterslide on a thunderstorm read, ejecting an intoxicated guest, calling EMS versus icing an injury, deciding whether a guard's lapse is a coaching moment or a termination, and choosing to evacuate a zone with 400 people in it are all yours in real time with a policy manual that cannot cover the specific call — the ceiling is the escalation path to a GM and corporate risk on the biggest incidents."
  },
  "rationale": "The modal worker here runs a floor — a pool deck, ropes course, ski area, campground, theme park zone, or fitness center — assigning staff, watching for unsafe behavior, handling angry guests, and stepping in when a kid gets hurt or a ride stops. AI already eats the paperwork half of the job: shift scheduling, labor-cost reports, incident write-ups, training checklists, attendance forecasting. What it cannot do is stand in a wet, loud, crowded venue and decide in ten seconds whether to close the attraction, and be the person the parent yells at afterward.",
  "outlook": "The clipboard-and-spreadsheet half of this job compresses into software over the next decade, so headcount thins toward fewer supervisors covering larger footprints, but someone certified still has to be physically on the deck when something goes wrong.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State amusement-ride and aquatic-facility codes increasingly name a specific credentialed individual as the on-site authority — e.g. state pool codes requiring a Certified Pool Operator or AFO physically present during operating hours, and NARSO/ASTM F24-aligned state ride rules requiring a named 'qualified person' to authorize a ride's return to service after a stoppage. If more states move that authorization from 'the operator' to a personally licensed, personally liable named supervisor whose signature is required before reopening, this rises. Watch also for ASTM F24 or state fair boards adding an explicit prohibition on automated/remote sign-off for return-to-service.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "Insurer-driven rather than statutory: carriers writing amusement, camp, and ski liability (e.g. via ACCT ropes-course standards, ACA camp accreditation, NSAA ski area guidelines) requiring documented supervision ratios and a named certified supervisor on the incident report as a condition of coverage — already a live practice in ropes-course and camp accreditation, and expandable to trampoline parks and inflatables where injury litigation is heavy.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Task-mix shift with a genuine two-tier structure: once scheduling, labor forecasting, attendance prediction, and incident-report drafting are fully handled by workforce-management software, the residual role is almost entirely the close/don't-close call, discipline and termination decisions, and being the accountable name on the incident file. The score rises because the denominator shrinks, not because anything new is added.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Same two-tier shift as above, but note the ceiling: the remaining tier is physically resistant, not cognitively resistant, so the gain here is smaller than in judgment. Conditional on employers not simply deleting the supervisor layer and pushing the judgment call up to a general manager covering multiple venues — a consolidation pattern already visible at chain fitness and trampoline-park operators.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Little upward room — already 16. Could rise only if venue design trends toward more unpredictable physical environments (adventure parks, water attractions, obstacle courses) at the expense of controlled indoor attractions, which is a real but slow shift in the recreation capex mix.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 1
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no plausible route: guests do not choose a pool or trampoline park because a human supervises the deck, and there is no purchasing channel through which that preference could be expressed or priced. The dominant downside risk is not AI capability but span-of-control consolidation — one supervisor per three sites with camera analytics — which cuts headcount without needing any dimension score to fall."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 66860,
        "wage": 44870
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 79060,
        "wage": 44660
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 88140,
        "wage": 46060
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 92830,
        "wage": 46900
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 103190,
        "wage": 48560
      }
    ],
    "from": 2021,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": 54.3,
    "comparable_from": 2021,
    "spans_soc_revision": false
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}