{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-firefighting-and-prevention-workers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers", "soc_code": "33-1021", "category": "Protective Service", "us_employment": 99140, "median_annual_wage": 93530 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 80, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 15, "embodiment": 19, "liability_shield": 12, "trust_premium": 15, "judgment_accountability": 19 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Pre-plan reviews, NFIRS narratives, and staffing spreadsheets are genuinely automatable, but the irreducible core — walking the 360 of a working structure fire, reading smoke color and pressure for flashover, and re-assigning a crew when a PAR check comes back short — is why this sits at 15 and not 18: a meaningful slice of a captain's week is paperwork and training documentation a machine could draft.", "embodiment": "You are inside or beside the hazard — pulling a ceiling to check for extension, standing on an icy roof at a vent hole, working confined-space and vehicle-extrication scenes in weather nobody chose — which is uncontrolled environment at the top of the band; the point off 20 is the station and fire-marshal-office hours, not any lack of physical exposure.", "liability_shield": "State Firefighter II, Fire Officer I/II, and Fire Inspector certifications plus incident-command credentialing gate the job and your signature on an inspection or occupancy determination carries weight, but 12 rather than 17 reflects that most operational exposure runs through the department and municipality under governmental immunity rather than to you personally the way a PE stamp or medical licence does.", "trust_premium": "The crew follows your order into a compartment on the strength of who gave it, and fire-prevention work means the same business owners and school administrators dealing with you year after year on code violations they'd rather argue than fix — that relationship is the mechanism of compliance, though it's 15 not 19 because command authority is also structural, vested in the rank whoever wears it.", "judgment_accountability": "Offensive versus defensive attack, when to sound the evacuation tones, whether the reported victim on the second floor justifies sending a crew into a building already showing structural failure — these are calls made in under two minutes on incomplete information, reviewed afterward in a LODD investigation if they go wrong, which is what 19 measures." }, "rationale": "Fire captains and battalion chiefs spend their consequential hours on scene — sizing up a structure, assigning crews, calling an interior attack versus a defensive stance, and accounting for every firefighter under their command in an environment where the floor may collapse. AI can already draft the NFIRS incident reports, build shift rosters, compile inspection findings, and analyze run-volume and response-time data, which is real but peripheral work. The core product — a human who is physically present, personally accountable for lives, and trusted by both crew and public — is not digitizable with current robotics or liability law.", "outlook": "Headcount tracks municipal budgets and call volume, not AI; the paperwork half of the job thins out while incident command, training, and accountability remain firmly human through the 2030s.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "NFPA 1521/1561 revisions or state fire marshal rules that name a certified Incident Safety Officer / IC as the required signer for any AI-generated risk-assessment or size-up recommendation, plus state adoption of NFPA 1026 IC certification as a licensure condition — making the command decision personally attributable in LODD litigation and NIOSH FACE reviews", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Formal adoption of AI decision-support in command (e.g., analytics fed from thermal/drone feeds into a mobile command dashboard, as in FirstNet and DHS S&T pilots) with department SOGs that require the IC to document override of any system recommendation — concentrating accountability on the human call rather than diffusing it", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 1 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "As NFIRS reporting, scheduling, pre-plan drafting, and inspection-report generation are absorbed by records-management vendors (ESO, First Due), the residual span of the job becomes scene command, personnel discipline, and firefighter behavioral-health intervention — the tier no tool touches", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Union contract or ballot-measure language (IAFF locals have won similar minimum-staffing measures) mandating a sworn officer physically present at every working incident rather than remote/virtual command from a regional center", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 } ], "ceiling_note": "Already near the top of the register; embodiment at 19 and judgment at 19 have almost no headroom. Realistic upside is a few points from liability formalization, not a change in category." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2019, "emp": 69590, "wage": 77800 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 69000, "wage": 78870 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 80890, "wage": 78230 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 84040, "wage": 80150 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 84120, "wage": 86220 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 93680, "wage": 92430 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 99140, "wage": 93530 } ], "from": 2019, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 42.5, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": false }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }