{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-landscaping-lawn-service-and-groundskeeping-workers/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers", "soc_code": "37-1012", "category": "Facilities", "us_employment": 130760, "median_annual_wage": 58430 }, "verdict": "EXPOSED", "risk_resistance": 62, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 17, "liability_shield": 7, "trust_premium": 11, "judgment_accountability": 13 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Diagnosing why a bed is failing, walking a property to judge whether the crew cut clean or scalped the turf, and hand-pruning to a shape a client will accept are tasks that can't be specified in advance, which is what holds this at 14 rather than higher — the bidding math, route sequencing, and daily crew assignments underneath all that are already being generated by Aspire, LMN, or Jobber.", "embodiment": "You are outdoors in heat, mud, and pollen most of the day, climbing on and off trucks, loading a trailer, backpack-spraying a slope, and troubleshooting hydraulics on a zero-turn in a client's driveway; it's 17 rather than 20 only because a meaningful share of the week is estimating, scheduling, and client calls done sitting down.", "liability_shield": "A commercial pesticide applicator license is legally mandatory and your name is on the application record — a misapplication that kills a neighbor's ornamentals or drifts onto a school is enforced against you personally by the state ag department — but the supervisory role itself needs no license, most states let a certified applicator cover uncertified crew under direct supervision, and hiring is by experience and driving record, which caps this at 7.", "trust_premium": "On residential and HOA accounts you are the face the property manager calls when the irrigation zone fails or the crew wakes someone at 6 a.m., and contracts get renewed or dropped on that relationship, but the actual product is mowed turf and healthy beds — a competitor undercutting the bid by fifteen percent takes the account regardless of how well the board likes you.", "judgment_accountability": "Calling whether to pull crews off a site because the ground is too saturated to mow without rutting, deciding to eat the cost on a redo versus arguing the scope, and judging when a leaning limb over a walkway becomes a hazard you stop work for are all your calls made in minutes without a supervisor on site; it sits at 13 rather than 16 because label rates, spec sheets, and the contract scope constrain most of what you decide." }, "rationale": "The core of this job is standing on a property directing crews, inspecting cut quality and plant health, fixing a broken mower deck, and rerouting the day when rain or a client complaint blows up the schedule — none of which AI touches. What is exposed is the paperwork half: route and crew scheduling, estimating and bidding, material ordering, timesheet and safety-log entry, and customer follow-up emails are all being absorbed by landscape management software with AI scheduling. Pesticide applicator certification (legally required in every state for commercial application) plus crew supervision liability gives a real but partial shield.", "outlook": "Headcount holds because someone must be on the property directing people and equipment, but the estimating-and-scheduling portion of the job shrinks, pushing supervisors toward more field time, more licensed chemical work, and more direct client contact.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State pesticide regulators tightening the 'direct supervision' rule so a certified applicator must be physically present (not merely reachable) for every commercial application — EPA's revised Certification of Pesticide Applicators rule (40 CFR 171) already sets minimum age and supervision standards that states may exceed; several states (CA DPR, NY DEC) run stricter presence and record-signing requirements. Add mandatory named-supervisor sign-off on application records and personal liability for drift/off-target damage.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 4 }, { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "Expansion of state landscape-contractor licensing (as in California's C-27 license and Florida's local irrigation/limited landscape licenses) to require a licensed, named qualifying individual on site for irrigation backflow certification, tree work near utility lines (ANSI Z133 / OSHA line-clearance qualified arborist requirements), and stormwater/erosion-control plan compliance under MS4 permits — each attaches a signature and personal exposure to a specific human.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Once AI scheduling and bidding software absorbs the routine tier, the remaining supervisor role concentrates in the calls that carry consequence: heat-illness stand-down decisions under California/Oregon/Washington and the pending federal OSHA heat standard, tree-failure and struck-by risk judgments, and deciding whether to spray adjacent to a school or waterway. If OSHA finalizes the heat rule with a designated on-site supervisor duty, the accountability sits explicitly on this role.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: this job genuinely has two tiers. If estimating, routing, timesheets and client email are fully automated, what remains is diagnosis in ambiguity — reading plant stress and disease, judging soil and drainage, deciding a bid is unwinnable, retraining a crew member who cuts scalped lines — none of which software performs without a person on the ground. Watch for the routine tier disappearing while headcount holds.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "trust_premium", "change": "Buyers paying specifically for a credentialed human on site: adoption of certification-linked procurement, e.g. municipal and HOA contracts requiring an NALP Landscape Industry Certified Manager, ISA Certified Arborist, or Audubon/GCSAA-certified superintendent as the named on-site supervisor; also Sustainable SITES or organic-land-care program requirements that name an individual practitioner.", "plausibility": "plausible", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "The embodiment score is already near its top and cannot meaningfully rise. The realistic ceiling here is roughly 70-74: the shield and accountability levers are real but attach to specific activity types (pesticides, tree work, irrigation backflow, heat), not to the whole occupation, so a supervisor whose crews only mow and edge gains almost nothing from them. Trust premium stays modest because most commercial and residential buyers purchase a price per visit, not a named person." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 100320, "wage": 47030 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 101390, "wage": 48220 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 103580, "wage": 49370 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 103730, "wage": 51010 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 116380, "wage": 48800 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 122910, "wage": 50810 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 126020, "wage": 55740 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 124130, "wage": 56170 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 130760, "wage": 58430 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 30.3, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [ { "slug": "first-line-supervisors-of-firefighting-and-prevention-workers", "title": "First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 80, "median_wage": 93530, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [ "Reading Comprehension", "Service Orientation", "Social Perceptiveness" ] }, { "slug": "first-line-supervisors-of-construction-trades-and-extraction-workers", "title": "First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 73, "median_wage": 79920, "overlap": 78, "skills_to_close": [] }, { "slug": "firefighters", "title": "Firefighters", "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 79, "median_wage": 59280, "overlap": 62, "skills_to_close": [ "Equipment Maintenance", "Equipment Selection", "Service Orientation" ] } ], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }