{ "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register", "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-police-and-detectives/", "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology", "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.", "scored_at": "2026-08-11", "model": "claude-opus-5", "occupation": { "title": "First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives", "soc_code": "33-1012", "category": "Protective Service", "us_employment": 154610, "median_annual_wage": 106040 }, "verdict": "SAFE", "risk_resistance": 76, "contested": false, "near_boundary": false, "dimensions": { "task_resistance": 14, "embodiment": 16, "liability_shield": 16, "trust_premium": 12, "judgment_accountability": 18 }, "reasoning": { "task_resistance": "Approving a felony arrest at 0300, taking incident command on a barricaded-subject call, and sitting a subordinate down for a Garrity-warned interview are the bulk of the shift, and the software-friendly residue — CAD report kickbacks, roll-call scheduling, monthly UCR/NIBRS compilation — is why this sits at 14 and not 18.", "embodiment": "Supervisors roll to the scene rather than watch it: foot pursuits, crowd lines, MVA and homicide scene control, physically supervising cell blocks and evidence handling, all in weather and traffic and hostile crowds, which puts it at 16 rather than 20 only because a real share of hours are spent at a desk on reports and CompStat prep.", "liability_shield": "POST/state certification is the statutory precondition for the sworn authority you exercise, your name goes on the use-of-force review and the pursuit-termination order, and §1983 supervisory-liability and failure-to-train claims land on you personally — decertification, not just termination, is the exposure.", "trust_premium": "Your officers' willingness to tell you the truth about a bad stop before IA finds it, and the community-meeting standing you build in your sector, carry real weight, but the arrest, the call for service, and the report are executed on statutory authority regardless of who the sergeant is — hence 12, not 17.", "judgment_accountability": "Deadly-force authorization, terminating a pursuit into a school zone, deciding whether a use-of-force incident goes to IA or ends with counseling, and a Graham v. Connor reasonableness call made in seconds with no supervisor above you on scene at night — these are unreviewable in the moment and litigated for years after." }, "rationale": "A police sergeant or lieutenant spends the shift responding to scenes, taking incident command, making use-of-force and arrest-authority calls, and handling personnel discipline — none of which a model can own. The automatable slice is real but administrative: report review and correction, shift scheduling, crime-stat compilation, and drafting routine memos and grant paperwork. Sworn status and statutory authority mean a certified human must sign the arrest approval, the use-of-force review, and the pursuit termination decision.", "outlook": "Headcount holds roughly steady; the paperwork half of the job compresses as report-writing and analytics automate, pushing sergeants further toward scene command, accountability review, and personnel oversight.", "what_would_raise_it": { "levers": [ { "dimension": "liability_shield", "change": "State POST (Peace Officer Standards and Training) boards or consent-decree language explicitly requiring a named supervisor of record to review and personally certify every AI-assisted report, license-plate-reader hit, or facial-recognition identification before it supports probable cause — already the pattern in Detroit's 2024 ACLU settlement over facial recognition, which mandates supervisory corroboration and bars FR alone as an arrest basis. Broad adoption across states would raise this.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 3 }, { "dimension": "judgment_accountability", "change": "Post-Floyd duty-to-intervene and supervisory-liability statutes (e.g., Colorado SB20-217, Illinois SAFE-T Act) plus DOJ consent decrees naming sergeants as accountable for subordinate force reviews; further erosion of qualified immunity for supervisors, or state civil-rights acts allowing direct suit against supervisors, would tighten this.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 }, { "dimension": "task_resistance", "change": "Task-mix shift: if Axon Draft One-style report generation and automated scheduling/CompStat tools absorb the administrative tier, the residual shift is scene command, force review, and discipline — none currently modelable. Countervailing: report review is itself a core sergeant task, so automation of drafting increases review load rather than removing it.", "plausibility": "already happening", "would_add": 2 } ], "ceiling_note": "Near the practical ceiling at 76. Trust premium has no route: policing is a monopoly public service with no buyer choosing between a human and machine supervisor, so willingness-to-pay for humanness cannot be expressed. Realistic gains are confined to liability formalization and the judgment tier." }, "adjudication": null, "employment_history": { "points": [ { "y": 2017, "emp": 104860, "wage": 87910 }, { "y": 2018, "emp": 116660, "wage": 89030 }, { "y": 2019, "emp": 121340, "wage": 91090 }, { "y": 2020, "emp": 122310, "wage": 92970 }, { "y": 2021, "emp": 128230, "wage": 99330 }, { "y": 2022, "emp": 131860, "wage": 96290 }, { "y": 2023, "emp": 138140, "wage": 101750 }, { "y": 2024, "emp": 153130, "wage": 105980 }, { "y": 2025, "emp": 154610, "wage": 106040 } ], "from": 2017, "to": 2025, "change_pct": 47.4, "comparable_from": 2019, "spans_soc_revision": true }, "pivots": [], "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms" }