{
  "source": "Cooked Index — occupational AI risk register",
  "page": "https://cookedindex.com/jobs/first-line-supervisors-of-protective-service-workers-all-other/",
  "methodology": "https://cookedindex.com/methodology",
  "notice": "Verdicts are re-examined as evidence accumulates. Re-fetch before relying on this; the page above always carries the current score.",
  "scored_at": "2026-08-11",
  "model": "claude-opus-5",
  "occupation": {
    "title": "First-Line Supervisors of Protective Service Workers, All Other",
    "soc_code": "33-1099",
    "category": "Protective Service",
    "us_employment": 20690,
    "median_annual_wage": 76400
  },
  "verdict": "EXPOSED",
  "risk_resistance": 59,
  "contested": false,
  "near_boundary": false,
  "dimensions": {
    "task_resistance": 12,
    "embodiment": 15,
    "liability_shield": 6,
    "trust_premium": 11,
    "judgment_accountability": 15
  },
  "reasoning": {
    "task_resistance": "Roughly half the shift is rosters, post-order updates, incident-report drafting and camera-log review that scheduling and video-analytics platforms already generate, but the other half — walking the posts, briefing a relief crew face-to-face, correcting an officer who is freezing on a hostile subject, and being physically present at the incident — has no software substitute, which puts it mid-band rather than at 6 or at 16.",
    "embodiment": "You are on your feet in parking structures, pool decks, casino floors, school crossings and animal-control calls where the environment is uncontrolled and the variable is a person or an animal behaving unpredictably; it stops short of 18-20 only because a meaningful share of the shift is spent in a monitoring station or office writing up what happened.",
    "liability_shield": "Most states require only a guard-card or unarmed/armed security registration and a few hours of training — no professional licence that names you personally, so the contract security firm or the property owner absorbs the negligent-security suit while your exposure is termination and a revoked card, hence 6 rather than the 11+ a licensed peace officer carries.",
    "trust_premium": "Clients keep you because the account manager knows your name and your officers will actually show up sober and in uniform for you, which is real relationship capital — but the security contract is rebid on price and post coverage, and a replacement supervisor can inherit the site in a week, so the relationship is a retention factor rather than the product itself.",
    "judgment_accountability": "The call to restrain, evacuate, pursue, use force or hand off to police is made in seconds with incomplete information and no supervisor above you on site, and you will defend that decision in an internal investigation, a police report and possibly a deposition; it lands at 15 rather than 18 because post orders and client protocols pre-define a large portion of your responses."
  },
  "rationale": "This title covers supervisors of security officers, lifeguards, crossing guards, animal control and gaming surveillance staff — people who post, brief and correct a physical crew across shifts, then respond in person when something goes wrong. The paperwork half of the job (shift rosters, post orders, incident report drafting, camera log review, training compliance tracking) is squarely in AI's wheelhouse and is already being absorbed by scheduling and video-analytics platforms. What survives is the part that requires a named human standing at the scene: deciding whether to escalate, restrain, evacuate or call police, and owning that call afterward in an investigation or lawsuit.",
  "outlook": "Headcount holds roughly flat but the job narrows: the scheduling and reporting layer gets absorbed by software while pay and promotion concentrate in supervisors who can command a scene, train a crew and stand behind a use-of-force call.",
  "what_would_raise_it": {
    "levers": [
      {
        "dimension": "liability_shield",
        "change": "State private-security licensing boards (e.g., California BSIS, Texas DPS Private Security Bureau, New York DOS) tightening rules so each guard post/site must have a named, individually licensed 'qualifying supervisor' who signs use-of-force reviews and incident reports, with personal license exposure — plus contract-guard clients or insurers requiring that a licensed supervisor countersign any AI-generated incident narrative before it enters the record. Also live in motion: state bills requiring human review of automated video-surveillance flags before an intervention.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 5
      },
      {
        "dimension": "judgment_accountability",
        "change": "Task-mix shift plus doctrine: as video analytics generate far more alerts than a crew can act on, the supervisor's day becomes triage of ambiguous flags and use-of-force/evacuation calls. If agency policy or a court ruling (following the deliberate-indifference and negligent-security lines) fixes the on-scene supervisor as the accountable decision-maker for acting on an algorithmic alert, and body-cam/after-action review formally names that supervisor, the ownership of consequential ambiguous calls deepens.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "task_resistance",
        "change": "Genuine two-tier job: once rostering, post-order generation, camera log review and training-compliance tracking are absorbed by platforms (Trackforce, Silvertrac, Ambient/Verkada analytics), the residual day is briefing and correcting humans, de-escalation coaching, and scene command — which current systems cannot do at usable quality. Score rises arithmetically as the routine tier leaves, though headcount may fall at the same time.",
        "plausibility": "already happening",
        "would_add": 3
      },
      {
        "dimension": "embodiment",
        "change": "Little upward route from capability; a modest rise if drone/robot patrol adoption shifts supervisors toward being the mandated on-foot responder for every robot-flagged event in unstructured space (crowds, water, aggressive animals), as some Knightscope and lifeguard-drone deployments already require a human to close out each alert physically.",
        "plausibility": "plausible",
        "would_add": 2
      }
    ],
    "ceiling_note": "Trust premium has no credible route: contract-security and crossing-guard buyers are procuring on price and coverage, not on the identity of the supervisor, and no client specifically pays extra for a human doing rosters. Gains here are almost entirely liability-driven, and liability rules can also be written the other way — a compliance-certified analytics platform accepted as the system of record would push liability_shield down instead."
  },
  "adjudication": null,
  "employment_history": {
    "points": [
      {
        "y": 2017,
        "emp": 74430,
        "wage": 49430
      },
      {
        "y": 2018,
        "emp": 78610,
        "wage": 49640
      },
      {
        "y": 2021,
        "emp": 23780,
        "wage": 61010
      },
      {
        "y": 2022,
        "emp": 23340,
        "wage": 61030
      },
      {
        "y": 2023,
        "emp": 19620,
        "wage": 65050
      },
      {
        "y": 2024,
        "emp": 20460,
        "wage": 74960
      },
      {
        "y": 2025,
        "emp": 20690,
        "wage": 76400
      }
    ],
    "from": 2017,
    "to": 2025,
    "change_pct": -72.2,
    "comparable_from": 2019,
    "spans_soc_revision": true
  },
  "pivots": [],
  "license": "https://cookedindex.com/terms"
}